Mile High Sports

Mile High Sports Week 3 NFL Betting Primer

Aniello Piro

Week 3!

Football season is back, which means season numero dos of the Mile High Sports betting primer presented by the fine folks over at SuperBook Sports. So get signed up with SuperBook, use this primer to your advantage, and let’s make some dollars this week!

This primer aims to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Check out the Football Friday video below for more Week 2 betting content!

All odds are courtesy of SuperBook Sports, and if you are looking for a place to watch and bet the games in person, head up to The Lodge Casino and check out the retail SuperBook sportsbook! Let’s get after it…

Games I like

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) 

This is an interesting spot here, and the general public assumes the Chiefs will roll into Indy and take care of business against a Colts team that has looked like the worst team in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. 95% of the $$$ and 94% of the tickets are on the Chiefs to win and cover the spread in this game.

Kansas City has looked strong through the first two weeks, with convincing victories against the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 19-22 ATS since 2020, and they are 7-9 ATS as a road favorite during that span. Andy Reid-led teams are 7-10 ATS with 9-13 days of rest between games; remember, KC last played on Thursday Night Football. In the eyes of the public, the Chiefs are one of the top dogs in the NFL, while the Colts are as good as done. We saw this line get up to Indy +6.5 and drop back down to +5.5, which is telling.

Historically, this is an interesting spot to back a home underdog. Underdogs the week after getting shutout vs. a favorite the next week are 41-21-3 ATS in the last 65 games.

It’s tough to get a read on this Colts team. They missed the playoffs by one game last season and added Matt Ryan as an attempt to upgrade the QB position. They’ve looked putrid through the first two weeks of the season, and there really is no way to sugarcoat it. That said, Micahel Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce have a chance to play this week, giving Indy a tremendous boost if they can give it a whirl.

This is the ultimate buy-low spot for a team that will be playing with their backs against the wall. I am expecting a bit of desperate effort from the Colts in this spot… a loss here digs the hole even deeper for Indy. This line might shoot back up closer to game time, so keep an eye on the number as you could get Indy +6.5 come Sunday morning. Let’s get ugly and fade the public big time by taking the points here.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)

Tom Brady is 12-4 in his Bucs career at Raymond James Stadium, and he is off to another undefeated start after two weeks. While the Bucs’ first two wins have not been pretty, this will be their first home game of the season at home. Brady and Aaron Rodgers are two future hall-of-fame quarterbacks, but their receiving corps are a bit thin compared to years past.

Green Bay looked dreadful in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings and then rallied for a dominant 21-10 victory against the Chicago Bears in Week 2. While Green Bay looked good in Week 2, I am not convinced their offense has overcome their deficiencies. Despite the greatness of Aaron Rodgers, the Tampa Bay defense will have ample opportunity to put pressure on Rodgers, who is surrounded by an underwhelming receiving core. Furthermore, Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard Christian Watson are all banged up with injuries. All are expected to play, but the Packers are already nursing numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The Bucs receiving core is not much better, but we have seen Brady do more with less consistently over the course of his career,

The public must think the Packers are back as this line opened Tampa -3 and has dropped three points to a pick ’em… both teams have had their share of early season woes, but Brady will find a way to pick apart the Green Bay defense to win this game at home.

The Brad-led Bucs have won three of the four head-to-head matchups with the Packers, with the lone loss coming on the road in Green Bay. Tampa is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 home games. Both squads have question marks, but the Bucs are a bit more competent at this point in this season, fade the line movement and lean on Brady.

Games I lean 

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ New England Patriots 

Baltimore is 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss, and this is the first time these franchises have faced off against each other since 2020. You can choose to lay the points here or play Baltimore on the ML at -150, which is not a bad option either. Last week Baltimore gave away their game against Miami with putrid late-game execution, and the Pats nabbed their first victory against the Steelers.

Baltimore is the better team here, lean towards them getting the job done on the road.

*****

That’s all for the betting primer! Be sure to check out the Football Friday Show above. What a great slate of games with plenty of different betting angles. I would like to note that in researching the games for this primer, stats, trends, and data were pulled from various outlets, including ESPN, Covers, and The Action Network, among others. These are all great resources for sports bettors, and I highly recommend you do your homework before placing a bet. Enjoy the games, everyone, and happy betting! 

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