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Mile High Sports Week 4 NFL Betting Primer

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Week 4!

Football season is back, which means season numero dos of the Mile High Sports betting primer presented by the fine folks over at SuperBook Sports. So get signed up with SuperBook, use this primer to your advantage, and let’s make some dollars this week!

This primer aims to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Check out the Football Friday video below for more Week 4 betting content!

All odds are courtesy of SuperBook Sports, and if you are looking for a place to watch and bet the games in person, head up to The Lodge Casino and check out the retail SuperBook sportsbook! Let’s get after it…

Sides I Like 

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (+3)

We made out alright fading the big bad Buffalo Bills last week, can we do it two weeks in a row?

Look, the Bills are the public darling child, similar to the Kansas City Chiefs from when they first burst on the scene a few years ago. Think back to the 2020 season after the Chiefs won the Super Bowl… the cat was out of the bag. Me, you, and oddsmakers all over Las Vegas knew just how lethal that Chiefs team could be on the football field any given Sunday. So what happened that year? The Chiefs went 14-2 in the regular season, but they were 7-9 ATS in those games. Long story short, Vegas adjusted.

I think the oddsmakers are now adjusting the Bills. While they did not win the Super Bowl, they were the consensus Super Bowl favorite to start the season at 7/1. However, after three weeks and coming off an egregious loss to the Dolphins, they are the overall favorite at 4/1.

Buffalo is missing a ton of key players on the defensive side of the ball, including Jordan Phillips and Christian Benford are both confirmed out, and there are a few other vital players whose status is up in the air for Sunday.

Clearly, the Bills want to come out and flex after losing to Miami last week, but they face a battle-tested Ravens team that has flown under the radar through the first few laps of the season. Outside of a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in Week 2, Baltimore has looked dominant with wins over the New York Jets and New England Patriots, and questionable decision-making cost them the game against Miami.

Lamar Jackson is among the MVP favorites, and Baltimore is the healthier team entering this matchup. It doesn’t matter if the Bills drop back and play zone or decide to blitz Jackson consistently; he has proved an ability to adapt and thrive when he has the proper talent around him.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, and John Harbaugh is 4-0 ATS as a home dog in the last three seasons when his quarterback is Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley. Furthermore, Harbaugh is one of the BEST coaches to back as an underdog, with a record of 48-33-3 ATS as a dog throughout his coaching career.

Buffalo is a damn good football team, but they are lacking some talent on defense right now, and the Ravens are solid at protecting their home territory. This could be a shootout game with two explosive offenses. Look to take the points in this case and back Baltimore against the spread.

Arizona Cardinals (PK) @ Carolina Panthers

This is one of those spots where I just don’t really understand the line. Have the Cardinals struggled? Yes. But they are still the more capable team in my eyes entering this matchup. We know that Kyler Murray and Co. can be a bit inconsistent at times, but this is a get-right spot for the Cardinals after they lost to the Rams last week in Los Angeles.

The Panthers earned their first win of the season in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints; however, Carolina is 0-4 ATS following a straight-up win the week prior. This is a letdown spot for a Panthers team that has struggled big time to get any mojo going on offense. There are some injury concerns around Christian McCaffery, and if he does not play, this Panthers’ offense becomes extremely one-dimensional.

Additionally, this game sets up nicely for the Cardinals’ defense. Arizona’s blitz percentage is 46.8%, which is the highest in the NFL. Carolina has allowed nine sacks this season which is among the top across the league. Baker Mayfield already has trouble looking over tall defenses and is constantly getting the ball batted down at the line of scrimmage. There also appears to be a bit of tension between Mayfield and his receiving corps… just so many question marks with this Panthers offense.

While Kliff Kingsbury is not my favorite coach to back on the road, it’s stomachable in this instance with Matt Rhule across the way. This game opened with the Cardinals as the slight underdog, and Kingsbury is 14-3-2 ATS as a road underdog in the NFL, with seven consecutive covers over that span. On the flip side, Matt Rhule is 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Additionally, Baker Mayfield-led teams have struggled as a favorite, as Mayfield is 11-22 ATS in his career as a favorite.

This could be a battle of the defenses, but the Cardinals simply have more upside and a proven ability to score points. So grab the Cards at a pick ’em while you still can, as they will be the slight favorite come Sunday morning.

Sides I Lean

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (PK)

Now I typically like to buy-low and sell-high on teams when betting the NFL week-to-week, and following that thought process, I would be on the Commanders with the points this weekend in Dallas.

After Cooper Rush held down the first on the road against the New York Giants, it seems as if he, and the Dallas defense, are due for regression. I am not so sure, and a lot of it has to do with the opponent. Michael Gallup is also set to make his season debut.

Washington might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and while they are averaging 21 points per game, they will go up against a ferocious Cowboys defense that has yet to allow over 20 points in a single game this season. Dallas has a pressure rate of 34.1%, which is the third highest in the NFL this season. Carson Wentz has been sacked 15 times this season, and the Dallas defense has put the team on its back all year.

The favorite is 5-2 SU in the last seven head-to-head matchups, and Washington is 1-4 in their previous five meetings in Dallas. The Washington defense is bottom third in the NFL in both passing yards and points allowed per game, and while the Cowboys’ offense is not electric under Cooper Rush, they should be able to do enough here without Chase Young on the other side of the ball.

You can get Dallas on the Moneyline right around -150, and I prefer to lay the juice as opposed to the points with the Cowboys’ offense being a bit of a wild card. The defense should manage to keep them in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)

Quick lean here as there are plenty of stats/trends to back both teams. It’s crazy to think that one of Mahome or Brady will be on a two-game losing streak following this week, and it’s rare that both teams enter this head-to-head matchup coming off a loss.

The Bucs will get Mike Evans back, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both questionable. Tampa was the slight home dog before the line moved to a pick ’em.

Here are the two significant Brady trends: he is 7-2 SU and ATS following a loss with the Bucs and 15-1 ATS following a loss for his career. Never a bad idea to back Brady at home.

*****

That’s all for the betting primer! Be sure to check out the Football Friday Show above. What a great slate of games with plenty of different betting angles. I would like to note that in researching the games for this primer, stats, trends, and data were pulled from various outlets, including ESPN, Covers, and The Action Network, among others. These are all great resources for sports bettors, and I highly recommend you do your homework before placing a bet. Enjoy the games, everyone, and happy betting! 

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