It’s that time of the week once again! Week 7 of the NFL season is here which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer, presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!
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The books got absolutely destroyed last week as nearly every favorite won and covered the spread. This week we are faced with an interesting slate, featuring three double-digit underdogs and plenty of short road favorites.
The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?
Manage your bankroll. Stick to your units. Watch the lines.
Early Slate
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins: ATL -2.5, MIA +2.5, o/u 47.5
The first game of the afternoon between two teams that recently played a game overseas. The Falcons are fresh off the bye while the Dolphins are looking to right the ship after a loss to the Jaguars last week. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding the status of Tua Tagovailoa within the Dolphins organization recently. You have to wonder if any of the outside noise is getting into his head. The young QB has a lot of pressure on his shoulders, and while he hasn’t been completely awful this season, the fact that the Dolphins have just one win tells you a lot about where they are at across the board.
The Falcons on the other hand still possess some talent and have beat both of the New York football teams this season. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 h2h meetings ATS. If you like taking home dogs this could be a spot to play the Dolphins, especially if you think they have been playing below their pay grade. Both of the Falcons win have come outside of Atlanta. Both of these teams are not very good although Miami seems to be the more dysfunctional team of the bunch.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants: CAR -3, NYG +3, o/u 43
Much like the Denver Broncos, the Carolina Panthers have come crashing down after starting the season 3-0. Looking to snap a three-game losing streak, the Panthers will head to New York to take on the Giants. New York got slaughtered at home last week against the Rams and the Giants remain decimated with injuries. Sam Darnold will return to his old stomping grounds for the first time to take on a Giants team that flatout stinks. CMC is still on the sidelines, but the Panthers are the overall better team here. Darnold has been uninspiring the last few weeks, but if the Carolina defense does its part it shouldn’t take very many points for the Panthers to win and cover this one.
The Giants are averaging just 19 points per game this season and the Panthers are great at applying pressure, leading the league with a 53% team pass rush win rate. The key to this game is the Panthers pass rush. Daniel Jones is competent when he has time to sit in the pocket, but things really begin to unravel when he is under duress. The Panthers have really come crashing down to earth since starting the season 3-0, but they are the better, healthier team here. The Giants looked shaky even with Saquon in the backfield and the Jason Garrett coached offense leaves little to be desired. This could be an ugly game so the under is also worth a look but be careful if you are laying the points here.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: CIN +6, BAL -6, o/u 46
The Ravens continue to roll. They destroyed the Chargers at home last week and now welcome Joe Burrow and company to town for a division battle. The Bengals have been one of the more surprising teams in the NFL this season. The dynamic duo of Burrow and rookie Ja’Marr Chase has been electric, but will it be enough to get past the mighty Ravens? If the Benglas are legit this game could have some serious implications on the division with Cincy already having four wins.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, although the Bengals have covered 5 of their last 7 in Baltimore. This is one of many games where there is a considerable home favorite. It’s hard to bet against Baltimore right now as they are looking like one of the best teams in the league, although we just saw the Titans takedown the Bills on MNF. This game has a similar dynamic. The Ravens are riding high. Do they come crashing down this week? I like the Ravens to win the game, but it’s take the points or pass this one ATS for me. These two are averaging over 50 points per game combined this season and the total is currently set at 46.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans: KC -4.5, TEN +4.5, o/u 57.5
After slugging around in the first half last week, the Chiefs finally got their act together in the second half against Washington, scoring 21 unanswered points en route to a thorough victory. The Titans earned their best win of the season, handing the Bills their second loss of the year last week on Monday Night Football. King Henry will probably run wild once again against a weak Chiefs run defense, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both bangged up. Toss in the fact that the Titans are on a short week and coming off a crazy emotional victory and this is a big time sell high spot, and I’ll be doing just that.
The Chiefs have not been all that profitable this season ATS, but they did cover last week and that second half was reminiscent of the Chiefs team we have all been accustomed to seeing the last few seasons. I’m down on the Titans after that win last week and like the Chiefs. I can see this being a high-scoring game, but the total of 57.5 is a bit steep. I might take the total down and parlay it with the Chiefs on the ML. Some intriguing options here but I’m on the Chiefs side here. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Public split down the middle for this one. One of the better games on the slate.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots: NYJ +7, NE -7, o/u 43
New England boat raced the Jets when they met in Week 2 25-6. That spread closed New England -5.5 and now the Pats are -7 with the game in their home stadium. The Jets are coming off a bye. New England cruised to victory after feasting on Zach Wilson’s turnovers, but perhaps the bye was an opportunity for the youngster to clear his mind. He’s thrown at least one interception in every game he’s played in this season and I see that trend continuing. I like the Patriots in this game, but I like them even more in a teaser down to -1 with another favorite like the Packers or Ravens. The Jets have covered the spread just two times in their last six meetings with the Patriots and one time the last six trips to New England.
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers: WFT +8, GB -8, o/u 48
This should be a fun game. We have seen the line move down here a little bit, but the Packers will not dip below the touchdown favorite barring anything drastic. The Packers are 5-1 ATS, but it’s taken some strong second half play to solidify some of these games. On the flip, Washington is 1-5 ATS and we are starting to find out a little bit about these two teams. I think the Packers have overachieved to a degree while Washington has underachieved.
The Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL, but boy are they beatable. I don’t think Washington wins this game, but I like them to cover a 7.5 spread. I might bump the spread up to an alternate line but I’m not laying the points with Green Bay here, even at home. The Packers have a matchup with the undefeated Cardinals for Thursday Night football, so perhaps they overlook Washington this week. We saw this line at WSH +9.5 earlier in the week, but I still like them getting more than a touchdown. This could also be a spot to tease the Packers if it gets down low enough.
Afternoon Delight
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams: DET +15, LAR -15, o/u 50.5
Not much to say about this one. I’m not touching this game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders: PHI +3, LV -3, o/u 49
I’ve seen a lot of different people with a lot of different thoughts on this game. The Raiders looked good in Denver last week and the Eagles have played well against teams that do not have high-octane offense. The Raiders are a middle of the line team this season, but their offense is a far cry from that of Dallas, Kansas City and Tampa Bay – all three teams that have beat Philly this season. The Eagles have played much closer games against the Falcons, 49ers and Panthers, teams that are closer to the Raiders across the board. Last week the emotion of the Jon Gruden situation fueled the Raiders to a fierce division win over a sputtering Broncos team. I’ll sell on the Raiders here and look towards Philly.
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CHI +12.5, TB -12.5, o/u 47
Another massive spread for the public-loving Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This number doesn’t shock me but it’s inflated at first glance. The Bears once again are treated like pushover team, which is absurd considering they’ve made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. I’m not laying these point what so ever, so at first glance this is a point or pass spot for me. With wins over the Bengals, Raiders and Lions the Bears are capable of playing buttoned up football four four quarters. Since Justin Fields took over as the starter, the Bears are 2-1, with the lone loss coming last week to Aaron Rodgers. I’m not overly in love with the Bears but I think they can hang around in this one, and I’m not laying 12.5.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: HOU +17.5, AZ -17.5, o/u 47.5
I grabbed the Texans early in the week at +18.5. Another game where it’s take the points or pass but I do like the Texans here. The Cardinals have looked sensational this season, and didn’t skip a beat without their head coach this last week. They will have to do the same this week, knowing the Green Packers will be waiting for Thursday Night Football. Much like the Packers game, I like the opposing team to cover the spread in this game because I can see Arizona overlooking Houston here. Now, Arizona could very well come out and destroy the Texans, but at some point this team is going to come down to earth. The 49ers played them tight a couple of weeks ago, and the Jaguars even showed some fight earlier in the season. Arizona gets up for the big game… will they overlook Houston? 17 points is too many points for me to lay at this moment in time. Points or pass.
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco: IND +4, SF -4, o/u 43.5
If you’ve read the previous primers you know how I feel about the 49ers as a whole, but I LOVE them this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is one of the more disappointing teams in the league this year, and their defense continues to regress. Jimmy G is back in the saddle and the 49ers are rested coming off the bye. This is a primetime game and the Colts will be traveling out west, which has historically played out well for the home team. The west coast team is 52-29-6 ATS against a non west coast opponent in primetime since 2003.
San Francisco has not been profitable against the spread, covering just one time this season, but this is a good opportunity for them to find their footing as we near the midway point of the season. Indy has just looked dysfunctional this season, and Carson Wentz has not brought much to the table offesnively, especially behind that offensive line.
Monday Night Football
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: NO -4.5, SEA +4.5
Two teams I struggle to get a read on. This is kind of a stinker of a game for MNF, and I’m split. I’m not the biggest Jameis fan in the world and I sure as hell do not want to bet on Geno Smith. Hopefully I am up for the weekend so I don’t have to touch this game. I’ll leave you with this… The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.