It is truly amazing how many fans and analysts around the NBA believe they know why the Denver Nuggets are resting everyone in the season finale against the San Antonio Spurs.
With the Nuggets currently positioned to be the third seed in the Western Conference playoffs if they win today, the Nuggets are effectively punting the game. The following players are listed as out heading into the matchup:
- Jamal Murray
- Christian Braun
- Cam Johnson
- Aaron Gordon
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Peyton Watson
- Spencer Jones
That’s seven of the Nuggets’ projected top 11 rotation players heading into the playoffs. The only four that aren’t listed are Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown (who will attempt to play all 82 games), Jonas Valanciunas, and Julian Strawther.
Jokic is currently listed as questionable but is likely to play. He’s at 64 games out of the needed 65 to be eligible for individual awards. In order to qualify, Jokic must play at least 15 minutes, meaning the best player in the world will likely only start the first half and rest during the second half. Jokic has been an All-Star for the last eight seasons in a row, and I’m sure he’d like to include a eighth straight All-NBA spot as well.
Jokic for a half, Brown, Valanciunas, Strawther, and a mix of role players off the bench is unlikely to challenge the San Antonio Spurs if the Spurs are interested in winning the game, though. The Spurs have listed Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell as questionable among their primary rotation, but nobody else is resting despite the fact that the Spurs have nothing left to play for…except one thing.
Here’s the current playoff order:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (locked)
- San Antonio Spurs (locked)
- Denver Nuggets (still open)
- Los Angeles Lakers (still open)
- Houston Rockets (locked)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (locked)
If the Spurs try hard and the Nuggets lose today, that opens the door for the Los Angeles Lakers to jump them in the standings for the third seed. The Lakers play the Utah Jazz, and there’s no incentive for the tanking Jazz to win at the end of the season.
If the Spurs defeat the Nuggets and the Lakers defeat the Jazz, the playoff matchups in the first and second round will flip among the top teams in the West. It drops the Nuggets to the fourth seed to face the Houston Rockets in the fifth seed instead of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the sixth seed. Both teams are about the same level, but the Timberwolves have made the Conference Finals in each of the last two seasons for a reason.
Not only does it change those first round matchups though…it also changes the second round matchups. The Nuggets go from potentially facing the Spurs in the first round to facing the Thunder instead. From a team that has yet to play a playoff game together to…the defending champions.
That’s a crucial wrinkle to the end of the season, which begs the question: why are the Nuggets okay with this? Are they actively choosing the fourth seed over the third seed? Are they passively accepting whichever seed and choosing rest?
Here’s what the head coach and players are saying on the record about it:
David Adelman before Wednesday’s game vs the Memphis Grizzlies: “I’d much rather enter Round 1, you know, at home with a healthy group. You know, I think that’s the most important thing.”
Adelman: “I don’t want a half healthy group…like we did last year.”
Jamal Murray has been adamant about believing in this group and focusing on health first.
“This year is just getting everybody healthy, get the defense right, and get everybody in rhythm offensively,” Murray said in Wednesday’s postgame session after a win vs the Grizzlies.
Tim Hardaway Jr. shared a similar sentiment: “We know what this team is capable of when healthy.”
Jonas Valanciunas after the Friday win vs Oklahoma City: “You don’t pick and choose the opponents…that’s how you get burned.”
Valanciunas continued: “We look at the standings – who’s up, who’s down, who we’re matching right now – but we don’t pick the opponents.”
Bruce Brown on who the Nuggets face in the first round: “Me personally, I don’t really care.”
Finally, directly from Nikola Jokic last Saturday against the San Antonio Spurs: “For us, every game matters because of the position, seeding, whatever. We need home-court advantage, and we’re going to try to win as much as possible.”
So, on the record, the two most common themes from the Nuggets are self-belief in a fully healthy group and homecourt advantage. That’s what they are saying out loud, and it’s what they’ve accomplished over the course of the final week. They locked up a top four seed with a game to go, and they now have an opportunity to rest everyone that matters (plus get Jokic his awards eligibility) while not worrying about the second round or Conference Finals.
That last part to me is what most people are missing about the Nuggets at this point. They’re not looking ahead to the second round, Conference Finals, NBA Finals, whatever. They’re going one game at a time, taking these situations as they come and evaluating on the fly. They’re worried about winning a first round playoff series. Then, they will worry about whatever comes after that.
Is that thinking too small? Absolutely not. Too many teams have fallen short by looking too far ahead. The Nuggets, given the injuries they’ve sustained throughout the year, haven’t had the luxury to look ahead to the playoffs at all this year. They’re managing the regular season as best they can, and now, for the first time in a long time, they can relax.
That happened only after they won 10 games in a row (11 now) but not before. Before the win streak, they were 42-28, fighting to simply stay in the top six. At Game 70, the Phoenix Suns, the seventh seed, were 39-31. The Nuggets, just about 3.5 weeks ago, were more concerned with clinching a playoff birth. They’ve played a lot of guys a lot of minutes to afford the opportunity to rest now, and they’re clearly going to take advantage of it in order to get as healthy as possible.
As for the first and second round opponent swap, it’s hard to see them caring that much about either first round matchup. There’s a sentiment (from the outside, not the Nuggets) that they’re trying to duck the T’Wolves because they’re scared of that team.
It couldn’t be further from the truth in my eyes. The Nuggets had a 3-1 record against both the T’Wolves and Rockets this year. They have a healthy respect for the T’Wolves, but it isn’t fear. They feel like they can score consistently against Minnesota and that getting the ball out of Anthony Edwards’ hands will be good enough to win that matchup.
For Nuggets-Rockets, they respect Kevin Durant and what he’s accomplished in this league. They still view Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson as relatively untested in playoff environments but respect their talent level. They feel relatively comfortable in that matchup though, especially against a team that doesn’t light up the three-point line consistently on volume.
The Nuggets aren’t really thinking about the rounds beyond the first one. They know from experience that you may not make that round if you think ahead too far, and the same goes for an opponent you expect to be there. They think they’re eventually going to see the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, but there’s respect for both of those teams, especially the defending champs. They don’t fear either team though. They think they’re the best team when healthy, and there’s a valid reason for that belief too.
So, the Nuggets are clearly more worried about themselves than anyone else at this moment. They’re not trying to game theory the best path to the Finals. They’re not “ducking” a specific opponent. They’re clearly focused on themselves first and everyone else second.
Whether that’s the right move or not remains to be seen. I’m on record stating that I think the third seed matters, and it’s really difficult to win a championship for the fourth seed due to extensive competition from beginning to end. I also think saving the Thunder until the Conference Finals is objectively the best move; however, the last six NBA Champions before the Thunder were each caught in the second round.
- The Celtics won in 2024 but lost in the second round in 2025
- The Nuggets won in 2023 but lost in the second round in 2024
- The Warriors won in 2022 but lost in the first round in 2023
- The Bucks won in 2021 but lost in the second round in 2022
- The Lakers won in 2020 but lost in the first round in 2021
- The Raptors won in 2019 but lost in the second round in 2020
You have to go back to the Durant Warriors to see a former champion lose later than the second round. Obviously, that series was massively impacted by injuries, and obviously, there are a lot of statistical indicators that say these Thunder in 2026 are closer to the Warriors in the late 2010’s than they are to previous champions.
Time will tell though. It’s hard to win two championships in a row, and if the Thunder were to lose, it would make sense that they were caught off guard sooner than they hoped for.
With all of that in mind, I don’t think the Nuggets particularly care what their precise matchups are. They will have homecourt advantage in the first round against a good but not great opponent. They will likely go on the road in the next two rounds, if they’re lucky enough to win, against two separate 60+ win squads. Does the order matter there? Perhaps, but it’s hard to tell which way to go.
So, the Nuggets are making the only choice that 100% benefits them: resting their playoff rotation (outside of Jokic for 15+ minutes) in the season finale and ensuring they’re ready to go for what might be a short, medium, or long playoff run. They don’t know, so they might as well prepare like they’re going to be exceptionally busy for a while.