Calm down, guys.
I’ve heard way too many people ask if Paxton Lynch is a bust this week for my liking, and, honestly, it’s getting on my nerves — hence the column.
No, he’s not a bust, not in the slightest, and anybody who says he is needs to holster their hot-take cannon for a few days.
Was he good on Sunday? Absolutely not. In fact, he was pretty freaking dreadful. His accuracy was off, his mechanics looked broken and his confidence was clearly shaken. None of which is a good sign.
And yet … I’m not worried.
Why? Because this is exactly what we should have expected.
Coming into the draft, every NFL scout (to a man) said the same thing: Paxton Lynch is as naturally gifted as any quarterback in the league, and his upside is through the roof, but he needs a year, if not two or three, to develop into a legitimate NFL starter.
“No way. I’ll say that 100 percent,” Mel Kiper said of Lynch starting right away. “He needs two to three years to transition from the no huddle, the not under center, throw the ball around the field — and he did a great job of it, and I’m not taking anything away from Paxton Lynch; physically, athletically, arm strength wise, hard worker, he’s got it all … but he’s got a lot to learn. … He’s coming into the league knowing nothing about an NFL offense. He needs a year, two years, three years to sit, watch and learn, and that’s got to be the plan for the Denver Broncos and Paxton Lynch. You force him in right away, and it’s not going to work.”
Bleacher Report’s Ian Wharton, who called Lynch’s upside “significant,” echoed the sentiment, saying, “He’ll need at least a year to refine his footwork and then adjust to an NFL playbook. The jump from the AAC to the NFL is steep.”
So what happened? What changed?
NOTHING.
Just because we want Lynch to be ready, does not mean he is or should be. There’s a reason why every draft scout said Lynch needed a year-plus to work on his footwork and mechanics, and it’s because he does.
Based on my calculations, we’re only 13 weeks through his rookie season. So as far as I’m concerned, Lynch’s development is right on track; if you think otherwise, apparently you watched more Memphis Tigers tape than the men paid to evaluate and project college quarterbacks for a living.
More importantly, you cannot judge a quarterback, for better or worse, after two games. Just look at the first two starts of these three quarterbacks’ careers:
Quarterback A: 10-29 (34%); 120 YDs; 0 TDs; 1 INT; 7 sacks
Quarterback B: 35-59 (59%); 327 YDs; 1 TD; 1 INT; 8 sacks
Quarterback C: 42-70 (60%); 490 YDs; 2 TDs; 6 INTs; 6 sacks
If you’ve been paying attention, you probably guessed that “Quarterback B” is Paxton Lynch. The other two? Only the greatest quarterbacks in Denver Broncos history, John Elway (A) and Peyton Manning (B).
Neither quarterback, particularly Elway, had an impressive start to their career, and they were both infinitely more game-ready than Lynch coming out of college. Now, they’re both first-ballot Hall of Famers. Would we have thought that after two weeks? Not a chance.
Conversely, look at Carson Wentz, the No. 2-overall pick in last year’s draft. He started the season off on fire; even Pro Football Focus had him graded out as their top quarterback in the NFL through the first month of the season. Now, he’s thrown eight interceptions to just three touchdowns in his last five games.
Lynch has a long way to go and a lot of work to do, but that’s to be expected. From everything we’ve seen from Lynch so far, he’s exactly who we thought he was: a project.
Don’t lose faith, Broncos Country. Maybe Lynch will turn out to be a “bust,” but he certainly hasn’t proven to be one yet.