First, the good news: fans who feared the 2015-16 Nuggets were destined for disaster, you can officially climb down from the ledge. The team is a very respectable 6-5 after Tuesday night’s win over the Pelicans. The Nuggets sit in the (just barely) top half of the Western Conference; have won four of their last five; have five players averaging double-digits in points-per-game; and, based on the eyeball test, appear to be gelling under new coach Mike Malone.
Now the bad news.
The Nuggets’ next nine-game stretch — which will take them to the quarter-season mark — features just one opponent with a losing record. The beatable opponents enjoy home-court advantage, and the Nuggets’ own home-field advantage could be snuffed out by three juggernauts: the San Antonio Spurs, LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors.
The Nuggets face a tough stretch ahead, and could realistically reach the 20-game mark anywhere between 8-12 and 12-8. Which of these games are truly winnable? I’ve analyzed each matchup based on statistics, scheduling and old-fashioned unscientific guesswork.
Wednesday Nov. 18: At San Antonio Spurs
Status: Don’t bet the farm
The Nuggets are 0-2 this year in games after zero days rest. The Spurs are 7-1 overall and are outscoring opponents 101-91 so far. Oh, and they are possibly coached by a basketball savant with an IQ larger than my checking account balance.
Friday Nov. 20: Phoenix Suns
Status: Totally winnable
The Nuggets will have two days of rest to prepare for streaking Suns, who have beaten predominantly mediocre to bad teams this year. Of course Phoenix thumped the Nuggets 105-81 in their first matchup. I’m hoping the Nuggets will be out for revenge.
Sunday Nov. 22: Golden State Warriors
Status: I mean, stranger things have happened
After a day off the Nuggets will take on the 12-0 defending champs and MVP Steph Curry, who so far have been melting other teams into mush. Did I mention the Warriors are 12-0? The Warriors have shown kinks in their armor this season, most recently against Toronto. But I’m not about to say the Nuggets will win this game.
Tuesday Nov. 24: L.A. Clippers
Status: Not likely
The Clippers have been hampered by injuries to Chris Paul and J.J. Redick, who could be back in the lineup by the time this game rolls around. In their absence, Blake Griffin has gone full beast-mode, averaging 26/9/4.3. Griffin will probably fun amok inside on the Nuggets, who are still without the human wall, Jusuf Nurkic.
Friday Nov. 27: Spurs Again?!
Status: Shoo! Go away Tim Duncan!
This game is more winnable than the first Spurs matchup. For starters, it’s at home. The Nuggets will have two days of rest, and the Spurs will have just one. Coach Popovich will not want to put too many miles on Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili this early in the season, so he could limit their minutes. But the Spurs’ still have LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard to deal with.
Saturday Nov. 28: At Dallas Mavericks
Status: Crap shoot
Again, the Nuggets are 0-2 without rest. Maaybe this is the game that gets them onto the board in this category. The Mavs are hardly unbeatable, having already lost to the terrible New Orleans Grizzlies and Charlotte Hornets. But the Mavs will have the benefit of two days of rest and a scowling court-side Mark Cuban to their advantage.
Monday Nov. 30: At Milwaukee Bucks
Status: Totally winnable
The Bucks are bad, and struggle against teams who play fast-paced basketball. The air in Milwaukee is thicker than an April snowfall. The Nuggets know how to beat this team, even if the victory was by just one point. Either way you look at it, the Nuggets should win this game.
Wednesday Dec. 2: At Chicago Bulls
Status: Will be a good fight
The Bulls are currently second in the Eastern Conference with a 7-3 record. But according to local analysis, the team has major problems with defense, shooting and turnovers. The team has a tendency to take the night off, too, which could explain losses to three bad teams. The Bulls will be coming off a tough Monday game against the Spurs, and could be looking for another night off.
Thursday Dec. 3: At Toronto Raptors
Status: Winnable
Again, the Nuggets like their rest. Both teams will come into this game with zero rest after a Wednesday night game. The 7-5 Raptors are punching above their weight class this year, outscoring opponents by four points. They nearly toppled Golden State a few nights back. But this team has already lost to the Sacramento Kings and the New York Knicks.