One season after winning the championship, the vast majority of the NBA world has lost its faith in the Denver Nuggets.
Ask just about anyone, and they will tell you the Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder will win the 2024-25 NBA title. The Celtics went 16-3 in the playoffs last year, so it’s understandable to think they will repeat. The Thunder were the top seed in the competitive West last year, and they just added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso to an already strong and versatile group. It’s understandable why there’s belief this is their year.
Ask just about anyone, and the Denver Nuggets have shifted back to a “second tier” contender. Sure, they coooould win it all, but they’re not the favorites. They’re not expected to get it done with the losses they’ve sustained, the replacements they’ve made, and weaknesses in the current core.
So, are the pundits right? Are the Nuggets cooked? Can they still win a championship?
Let’s talk about that.
New Additions
Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric were the team’s big signings this offseason, and they’ve already made quite the impression.
“Russ is super intense. He’s an intense guy. Everything about him,” shared Aaron Gordon in early October. “It’s just nice to look over and see somebody that’s constantly pushing you. Constantly wanting you to get better.”
Westbrook has had quite the journey since being traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019. The Nuggets are hoping he can fill a backup point guard spot they’ve struggled to fill since Jamal Murray tore his ACL and Monte Morris stepped into the starting unit.
Westbrook is going to be who he is, and he’s going into his tenure with Denver with a clean slate:
“For me, I’ve always set my own expectations and where I want to be in my career in my life, so, I never feel like I’m carrying a lot.”
If Westbrook can simplify things and be the best version of who he is right now, that’s a player that can help the Nuggets.
For Dario Saric, the pathway is simple: the Nuggets need to give Nikola Jokic a break every now and then. Can Saric handle the burden at backup center?
“I don’t think you guys understand how big on an impact Dario Saric will have on this team,” Gordon shared back on Media Day. “Playing that backup center, playing that backup 4, he’s going to be fighting and scrapping for minutes, and you guys are going to see his minutes increase throughout the year.”
It’s been a while since the Nuggets have had a center that forces the team to play him more. We will see if that holds true with Saric or not.
Reasons for Belief
The first and most important reason why Denver’s still a title contender: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. are all still here. Jokic especially gives the Nuggets reason for optimism. When he’s here, the Nuggets always have a chance. Any time the four Nuggets above all play, the Nuggets are great. When Murray has played in each of the last two seasons, the Nuggets have an 87-37 regular season record and a 23-9 playoff record. That’s really good and shows the base of Denver’s formula for success is still strong.
While Kentavious Caldwell-Pope departed in the offseason, there are three primary reasons why the Nuggets hopes remain high on the wings: Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and Peyton Watson.
Braun will likely start for most or all of the season next to Denver’s core group. His defense on and off the ball is important, as will be his development as an offensive player. There will be bumps along the way, but Braun and the Nuggets will work through them.
Strawther is the lightning in a bottle scorer the Nuggets didn’t really have off their bench last year. Yes, Reggie Jackson had a game against his former team last November, but it was in the starting lineup. The highest scoring total from a Nuggets bench player was just 25 points by Christian Braun, also back in November. After that? A 22-point burst from Strawther in December.
The Nuggets had only four total 20+ scoring performances all season last year. I expect that to change with Strawther getting consistent play time.
Finally, Watson didn’t play all preseason, which was one of the reasons Denver struggled defensively in the preseason. Watson will factor into Denver’s game plan with his length, athleticism, and defensive versatility. Watson’s growth as a defender has a chance to change the Nuggets for the better. He had an argument for being their best defensive player last season, and experience will only help him moving forward.
The Competition in the West
The way to the NBA Finals will be a challenging path. As I currently see it: four other teams will be serious challengers when it’s all said and done: the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Dallas Mavericks, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Phoenix Suns.
In reverse order, the Suns will be better than last year. Chemistry and game plan will be better with Mike Budenholzer there. He already has the Suns shooting more threes, and they have a ton of talented shooters. Their offense will be great, and the defense was already surprisingly good last year. As long as they’re healthy, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are strong enough playoff performers to be a threat, and the shooting around them is much better than 2022-23.
The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets last year. Then, they traded Karl-Anthony Towns, who was probably the second most important player for the T’Wolves in that series. The rest of the team remains very good, but how will Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo fit in? I suspect DiVincenzo will be fine, and Randle will struggle. How the Timberwolves handle the change will define their contention possibilities.
The Mavericks went to the NBA Finals last year, and then they added Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Quentin Grimes in the offseason. They needed better wing play around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Even if Thompson isn’t awesome the entire time, I think they got better overall. They will be a threat to repeat as West champs, undoubtedly.
The Thunder, as mentioned before, are the most dangerous challenger in the West to Denver. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is legit, and the perimeter and interior defense around him might be the best in the NBA. They might win 60 games.
How Denver navigates the West will be interesting. They don’t need the top seed in the conference to make it to the NBA Finals. Once they get into the playoffs though, every matchup will probably feature one of the above teams. If Denver manages to survive that gauntlet, they will likely have last year’s champion, the Boston Celtics, waiting for them in an epic showdown.
Prediction
At times this preseason, I’ve held some pessimism for the Nuggets plan, the chances they’ve taken, and the way they’ve approached things in the early going.
Over the last week, I’ve been to a lot of practices and sensed a bit of a shift. The level of seriousness has amped up. The intensity is a bit higher. The desire to prove people wrong is a bit higher.
Part of that is a natural shift to the regular season. The games matter now. This is what teams play for, and there should be a sense of intensity at this stage.
But I’m buying in. I’m buying the Jamal Murray comeback, Christian Braun starting, Michael Porter Jr. making improvements, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson making strides, Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric improving the bench unit.
More than any of that, I’m buying Nikola Jokic stock. He’s heading into Year 10, and the level of seriousness he continues to bring is unmatched on the roster. He sets a great example with his approach, and I don’t see any reason why he would slow down.
The Nuggets need him fresh and ready for the playoffs. Hopefully, Saric and the Nuggets rotations can give Jokic a breather more frequently.
But I’m buying in. A rested Nikola Jokic for the playoffs is a great sign for the Nuggets. If they can get him there in good shape, I believe the Nuggets will win the 2024-25 NBA championship.
Let’s see what happens.