How one (big) decision changed the course of the Denver Nuggets season

I told you so.

Sure, I feel a little petty pulling out the “I told you so” so early, but, well, I did. And I wasn’t the only one. In fact, I was only a small voice in the midst of a large chorus chanting, “Start Jokic!”

And this isn’t to say that I or anyone else playing armchair coach from their living room is smarter than Michael Malone; I’m sure there was plenty more that went into the decision than simply telling Jusuf Nurkic to take a seat on the bench and promoting Nikola Jokic to the starting lineup — Tim Connelly’s opinion on the matter, for instance.

Do I wish they pulled the trigger on a full-scale lineup change a few weeks ago before the team went 2-4 on a six-game road trip? Sure. But beggars can’t be choosers, and I’m just happy they figured it out now, before it’s too late; Denver’s now just half a game out of the eighth and final playoff spot.

But let’s break it down and look a little closer at why inserting Jokic, Harris and Chandler into the starting lineup has made such a remarkable difference.

Jokic is a wizard

I’m going to try to not spend too much time on Jokic, only because I feel like all I’ve been doing is singing his praises for the last month, but he deserves it. He’s special.

As I detailed last week, he’s been putting up numbers on a per-minute basis that only four centers in NBA history have ever matched. And on Monday, when he actually got the minutes to back up those extrapolated points, rebounds and assists, he over-performed, putting up 27 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists!

How insane of a performance is that? According to Pro Basketball Reference, Jokic is only one of two centers to put up that stat line in the last 13 years (the other was DeMarcus Cousins).

But the individual numbers are just part of the story. Simply put, when he’s on the court, the Nuggets are an entirely different team.

To put that into perspective, the Denver Nuggets are the equivalent of the worst team in the NBA when Jokic is off the court — the 76ers are last in the NBA with a net rating of -7.8. When on the court, the Nuggets are essentially a top-10 team.

Jokic is the centerpiece of the Denver Nuggets franchise; he makes this team run. Having him in the starting lineup playing 30-plus minutes a game changes everything.

Gary Harris is better than ever

We can point at Jokic and Chandler and say that they should have been in the starting lineup a long time ago, but we can’t do the same with Gary Harris. It just so happened that his return from injury coincided with Malone’s decision to shakeup the lineup (or maybe one inspired the other), and it’s been a godsend.

Harris is no longer just a defender. He’s no longer just a cutter or just shooter, either. Harris is one heck of an NBA player, and he’s only getting better.

It may just be eight games, but so far this season Harris is averaging more points, rebounds and assists than he did last year, and he’s doing it five fewer minutes of playing time. On a per-minute basis, it’s not even close.

The rollout has been delayed, but Harris made some marked improvements over the offseason, particularly in his ball handling, which has allowed him to play the role of secondary facilitator.

A year ago, Harris’ offensive contributions centered around his ability to cut off ball and make catch-and-shoot three pointers when called upon. Now, he’s creating for himself, as he’s averaging nearly two more drives to the basket per 36 minutes (5.91 vs. 4.04) this year than last year and converting more often (50% vs. 44.1%), per NBA.com.

Throw in the fact that he’s shooting over 10 percentage points better from behind the arc than he did a season ago, and Harris has suddenly become one of the most-efficient young shooting guards in the league — and that’s without even mentioning his defense.

The Gallo-Chandler combo

It’s pretty simple. The Nuggets are best when Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are on the court together.

Of all Denver’s five-men lineups which have played at least 20 minutes together this season, only five have a positive net rating; all five include the Gallo-Chandler combo.

There are certainly positives in staggering the two’s minutes and having Chandler head the Nuggets second unit, but they’re overshadowed by the impact the two have on the game when they start the first and third quarters on the court together.

It’s fun to point to Jokic, Harris, Mudiay and the rest of the young guys, but Chandler and Gallinari are the veteran paperweights that keep this team grounded; without their consistency on both ends of the floor, the Nuggets could lose their way quickly.

Kenneth Faried has found his basketball soulmate

Many have wondered how Faried would fair coming off the bench, and so far, it’s gone about as well as anyone could have imagined. But it might have a lot more to do with whom he’s playing with than when he’s coming into the game.

In the last iteration of the Nuggets’ starting lineup, Faried was paired next to Nurkic to start both halves, and to say that it didn’t work might be an understatement.

While on the court together, Faried’s net rating was -14.5, which is really bad. It means that for every 100 possessions that the two play together, the Nuggets are getting blown out by 14.5 points.

That’s not a winning formula, and it’s why Malone had to make a change.

That change didn’t just involve pushing Nurkic and Faried to the bench, though; it involved finding more minutes for a Jokic-Faried combo that has proven to be explosive.

It’s an, admittedly, small sample size (130.2 minutes this season), but when Jokic and Faried have shared the floor, they’ve had a net rating of 17.

I’ll repeat, when Jokic and Faried are on the court together, they’re outscoring opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions. That’s absurd!

Again, it’s a small sample size, but Jokic is beginning to look like the perfect complement to Faried’s game — Faried is 30.8 points better per 100 possessions when he’s playing with Jokic than when he’s not.

If this holds up, Faried’s long-term future with the Denver Nuggets suddenly becomes a lot more interesting.

The unlocking of Emmanuel Mudiay

Who’s had the Denver Nuggets best net rating since the lineup change? Jokic? Harris? Gallo?

Nope. Emmanuel Mudiay (+27.4).

Yes, the kid we were calling a bust just a few weeks ago has finally found himself, and over the last three games, he’s been one of the most effective players in the NBA, averaging 16.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists on 60.6 percent shooting from the field and 72.7 percent shooting from three.

That’s quite the turnaround given that I called Mudiay the least-effective player in the NBA just over a month ago — and I stand by it; he was.

But, like Faried, it’s less that Mudiay has drastically improved and more that Malone has put him in a position to succeed.

Again, and not to harp on Nurkic too much — it’s not his fault his skill set doesn’t fit with this roster — but Mudiay simply can’t share the court with a big man of his ilk; he clogs up the paint and stagnates the offense, especially when combined with Faried.

In fact, all season long, Mudiay has been fairly effective when Nurkic is on the bench, posting a net rating of 3.7, shooting 42.3 percent from the floor and 46.9 percent from three — the Nuggets would take those number all day.

When playing with Nurkic, though, Mudiay’s net rating plummeted to -18.0, and he shot just 33.3 percent from the field and 19.6 percent from three.

In comparison, when playing with Jokic, Mudiay’s net rating is 6.1, and he’s shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from three.

If the Nuggets truly have cracked the code, finding the perfect lineup to surround Emmanuel Mudiay, than the ceiling for this team just became a whole lot higher.

They have a tough three-game stretch coming up, with two games against the Clippers and another against the Hawks, but if these numbers keep up, the playoffs will be much more than a possibility; they’ll be a reality.