There is no topic of conversation in Denver quite like the Peyton Manning situation. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is off to a rocky start in 2015, proving to be one of the weakest links on a 6-0 team; that’s a shocking statement, given how No. 18 has typically carried his team throughout his 18-year career.
But so far this season, Manning has continually hurt his team. One look at the statistics proves this fact, as the Broncos quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions, to just seven touchdowns. At one point, his offense went 27 consecutive drives between touchdowns, and they’ve gone two full games without reaching the end zone. Those are staggering facts for a guy who is used to putting up “Star Wars numbers.”
Most people attribute this decline in production to age; they contend that the 39-year-old quarterback simply doesn’t have the physical tools to play the game at a high level anymore. That sounds reasonable, especially because it can be backed up by catchy phrases like “Father Time is undefeated,” but it’s not accurate.
Going beyond the numbers and actually looking at the mistakes Manning is making this season shows that his interceptions aren’t happening because he’s physically unable to make the play. Rather, they are occurring because he’s making mental errors.
That’s right; the smartest quarterback in the history of the game is making bad decision on the field. An interception-by-interception breakdown of Manning’s 10 picks illustrates this point. Here’s a look at how they’ve all gone down:
Interception No. 1 – vs. Baltimore
Game Situation: Third Quarter | 14:13 on the clock | Broncos 9, Ravens 3
Down and Distance: Third and 10 | Denver’s 20-yard line
What Happened: With pressure coming up the middle, Manning had to get rid of the ball in a hurry. He threw the ball to the left flat, looking for Jordan Norwood on an out route. Norwood was lined up in the slot, running his pattern behind Demaryius Thomas, who was running a go route with Jimmy Smith in coverage. Unfortunately for Manning, Jimmy Smith let DT go, jumping the out route; with two defenders in the area, the ball popped into the air, Smith grabbed it and ran untouched for a touchdown.
Norwood is at the 29. His defender is near the hashmarks. But Smith, who was covering Thomas, is coming up from behind.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Manning didn’t see Smith leave Thomas. If he had, he could have lofted an easy pass to DT that would have gone for a big gain, if not an 80-yard touchdown.
Interception No. 2 – at Kansas City
Game Situation: Second Quarter | 6:37 on the clock | Chiefs 7, Broncos 0
Down and Distance: Third and 3 | Midfield
What Happened: Demaryius Thomas is lined up in the right slot, with Ronnie Hillman out wide. At the snap, Hillman runs a go route, with DT running a short out underneath him; it’s the exact same route combination, but to the other side, that resulted in the pick six against Baltimore. The Chiefs play it the same way, letting Hillman run free and double-teaming Thomas. Marcus Peters jumps the route, intercepts the pass and runs 55 yards for a touchdown.
Look at Norwood (11) at about the left hashmark. Wide open. Instead, Manning throws into coverage, as CB is jumping the route.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Manning stared down Thomas the entire play, making it easy for Peters to see what was coming. Protection on the play was good, so No. 18 could have waited and gone to Hillman instead.
Interception No. 3 – at Detroit
Game Situation: Second Quarter | 15:00 on the clock | Broncos 0, Lions 0
Down and Distance: Second and 10 | Detroit’s 13-yard line
What Happened: In the red zone, Manning faked a handoff to Ronnie Hillman and tried to hit tight end Owen Daniels on a quick post. The ball was on time and looked to be on target, but it was tipped by defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, who was dropping into coverage. The ball bounced into the air, where there were six Lions nearby and Daniels was the only Bronco in the vicinity. Ultimately, Glover Quin picked off the pass on a diving play that was reviewed and upheld.
Daniels is at the 6. He’s going to be open if Ngata doesn’t tip the ball (happening here), but it’s a crowded spot.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error / Bad Luck – Had the ball not been tipped, it would have been completion; Daniels would have either scored or been inside the five-yard line. That said, Manning needs to see Ngata on the play.
Interception No. 4 – vs. Minnesota
Game Situation: Second Quarter | 0:32 on the clock | Broncos 13, Vikings 3
Down and Distance: First and 10 | Minnesota’s 45-yard line
What Happened: The Broncos were driving for additional points before halftime, trying to extend their lead. Emmanuel Sanders was in the left slot, with Andre Caldwell out wide. Anthony Barr was lined up on Sanders. Sanders ran an outside go route, with Caldwell coming underneath him on a down and in. Barr left Sanders, however, and jumped the inside route. Manning never saw the linebacker and threw the ball right to him. It resulted in an interception that set up a Vikings touchdown before halftime.
Manning is trying to hit Caldwell at the 40. Barr is clearly jumping the route; the QB never sees him.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Manning was going to Caldwell all the way, expecting Barr to stay with Sanders. He misread the defense and threw an easy pick to Barr.
Interception No. 5 – vs. Minnesota
Game Situation: Fourth Quarter | 9:13 on the clock | Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Down and Distance: First and 10 | Denver’s 34-yard line
What Happened: Emmanuel Sanders was lined up wide left, with Demaryius Thomas in the slot. Sanders runs a go route, while DT runs a post pattern. Manning tries to hit Thomas when he’s bracketed by four defenders, lofting the ball over the two linebackers and in front of the two safeties. The timing is right, as DT is open when Manning throws the ball. But the pass sails, getting intercepted by Harrison Smith. A perfect throw results in a completion; with four defenders in the area, however, it’s a dangerous throw.
Thomas is open, but the ball has to be thrown perfectly in between four defenders forming a box around the wideout.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Errant Throw – To some extent, Manning expected Smith to go with Sanders on the go route. That said, even with the safety jumping the route, it’s a completion if the ball isn’t overthrown.
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Interception No. 6 – at Oakland
Game Situation: Second Quarter | 0:25 on the clock | Raiders 7, Broncos 3
Down and Distance: Third and 5 | Oakland’s 9-yard line
What Happened: On third down, the Raiders bring pressure up the middle. From the moment of the snap until the time he throws the ball, Manning has 1.65 seconds to make a decision; he makes a poor one. When he releases the ball, no one is open; he should have simply thrown it away and settled for the field goal. Instead, Manning forces the ball into triple coverage, trying to hit Owen Daniels, where it’s picked off by Charles Woodson.
Daniels is at the 2 or 3, with plenty of traffic around him. DT on the corner or CJ in the flat would have been the right read.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Nobody was open that quick, but No. 18 didn’t want to settle for another short FG. Instead, he tried to force the issue, guessed wrong and was picked off.
Interception No. 7 – at Oakland
Game Situation: Third Quarter | 2:56 on the clock | Broncos 9, Raiders 7
Down and Distance: Third and 8 | Denver’s 39-yard line
What Happened: Trips to the right, with Emmanuel Sanders on the outside and DT in the middle. At the snap, Sanders runs a deep post-corner, with Thomas running a shorter version of the same route. Charles Woodson is the lone deep safety, so Manning expects him to go with Sanders. Instead, he jumps the shorter route, snatching the ball out of the air just before it lands in DT’s hands. It’s a perfectly thrown ball by Manning, about to hit his receiver in stride. Woodson just makes a great play.
Woodson (at the 38) appears to be taking Sanders (at the 41), but he jumps up and takes Thomas (at the 47) instead. Great play.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Manning expected Woodson to go with Sanders on the deep route. Instead, he jumped Thomas and made a sensational play.
Interception No. 8 – at Cleveland
Game Situation: First Quarter | 12:12 on the clock | Broncos 0, Browns 0
Down and Distance: First and 10 | Denver’s 42-yard line
What Happened: Manning tries to hit Emmanuel Sanders on a short route over the middle, but he doesn’t see Karlos Dansby dropping into coverage. Dansby reaches up with one hand, tips the ball into the air and intercepts it. In part, this is a great play by the linebacker. But it’s also a bad read by Manning; he never saw a linebacker dropping into coverage right in the middle of the field. Plus, Sanders was well covered on then play; it would have been a tough completion even if Dansby wasn’t there.
Sanders is blanketed at the 43, which makes him a bad option. Add the LB in front of him in coverage and it’s a really bad choice.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – Manning should have never thrown the ball. He didn’t read the coverage correctly, as he threw over the middle with a linebacker dropping into zone.
Interception No. 9 – at Cleveland
Game Situation: Fourth Quarter | 8:18 on the clock | Broncos 16, Browns 14
Down and Distance: Second and 11 | Denver’s 34-yard line
What Happened: Feeling pressure, Manning steps up in the pocket, sees Ronnie Hillman running toward the left flat and tries to dump the ball off to his running back. The pass is slightly behind Hillman, however, causing it to bounce off of his hands. Karlos Dansby was trailing Hillman on the play, so the ball bounced off of the running back and into the linebacker’s hands. A few seconds later, Dansby was in the end zone, having given the Browns their first lead with a pick six.
Hillman (right in front of the 2nd and 11 graphic) isn’t a bad choice here. Manning just throws a so-so pass that the RB bobbles.
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Errant Throw – Manning bought time and found his safety valve; he simply threw the ball behind Hillman. Could it have been caught? Sure. But it wasn’t a good throw by No. 18.
Interception No. 10 – at Cleveland
Game Situation: Overtime | 14:34 on the clock | Broncos 23, Browns 23
Down and Distance: Third and 2 | Denver’s 39-yard line
What Happened: The Browns drop four players into a deep zone, with four more defenders in a short zone. Rushing only three, they give Manning plenty of time. Demaryius Thomas runs a hook route on the right side, in front of the deep zone. Manning tries to float the football over three defenders that are in front of Thomas, but Barkevious Mingo is able to leap into the air and make the interception. It’s a nearly impossible throw to make, as the linebacker is directly in between Manning and DT.
Thomas is in the bottom right corner of the image. That’s nearly an impossible angle over the linebacker (at the 45)
To Watch the Entire Play: Click Here
Cause: Mental Error – The Browns were in the perfect coverage for what the Broncos ran. The proper read would have been to check the ball to the RB in the flat. Going over three defenders and in front of two was risky.
As the breakdown shows, Peyton Manning’s 10 interceptions through the first six games of 2015 have very little to do with his physical ability. They aren’t the result of him being rushed and unable to escape the pocket. And they haven’t occurred because he doesn’t have the arm strength to reach his receivers and defenders are getting to the football first. Instead, Manning’s rash of interceptions are the result of him not properly reading the defense and/or making a bad decision.
The first part of that equation is somewhat understandable. Manning is learning a new offense, so there are bound to be some moments when he simply doesn’t realize the right thing to do in a particular situation. The second, however, is a little more concerning; a player as experienced as No. 18 shouldn’t be making poor choices; he needs to know that it’s sometimes better to settle for a field goal or pun the ball away instead of taking an unnecessary gamble.
With time, it’s reasonable to expect that Manning will solve the misreading problem. He’s a player that has excelled, particularly after returning from his four neck surgeries, by being one step ahead of the defense. Right now, the football computer in his head is simply running too slow; it’s not processing the information fast enough. As the season goes along, and he becomes more familiar with the offense, that will change.
The second problem is the bigger concern. To a large extent, this is a bigger rewiring job than the first issue, as it requires Manning to realize that he doesn’t have to make every play. He has a great defense, one that the Broncos can rely on; his job is to simply avoid putting them in bad spots. For a guy who is used to carrying his team, that’s a tough transition to make.
One thing is for certain, however: Manning doesn’t need to find the Fountain of Youth in order to rebound after the bye week. His problems aren’t physical; instead, they’re all mental.