The Denver Broncos regular season is almost upon us, and that means now is the season for predictions and hot takes.
The analytics gurus over at Pro Football Focus aren’t excluded from this, of course, and have recently unveiled their three ‘bold predictions’ for every team in the AFC West.
One of those predictions is that wide receiver K.J. Hamler, who is returning from a torn ACL and dislocated hip, is set to have a breakout campaign, now that Russell Wilson is installed as the quarterback.
“Hamler could be a perfect designated deep threat for, arguably, the best deep passer in the league,” PFF’s Sam Monson wrote. “Hamler has generated just 1.18 yards per route run in the NFL but has been dealing with conservative or inept quarterback play thus far. In college, Hamler was a dynamic big-play threat at all times, and Wilson is well used to taking advantage of those kinds of players, even if they don’t have complete skill sets.”
Monson raises an excellent point. Receivers like David Moore, that weren’t exactly well-rounded but were dangerous deep threats, found remarkable success playing with Wilson in the past, and it could easily happen again.
Monson also believes Nik Bonitto will end up being arguably the team’s most impressive pass rusher and will earn the Denver Broncos’ best pass-rushing grade.
“Bonitto may have a limited role as a designated pass-rusher, but he was lethal as a pass-rushing force in college,” Monson wrote. “Bonitto posted the best two-year PFF pass-rushing productivity in the draft class, ahead of Aidan Hutchinson. He recorded 91 total pressures from 406 pass-rushing snaps over his final two seasons, earning a PFF pass-rushing grade above 92.0 each time”
While Bonitto has impressed during training camp, it has been Baron Browning and Bradley Chubb who appear more likely to earn the team’s highest pass-rushing grade.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Broncos in PFF’s mind though, as they also predict that Broncos Country will find out Wilson has some very real limitations.
“We may discover that much of the way Wilson plays the game is inherent and not a feature of shackles thrown on him by Carroll and the Seahawks,” Monson wrote. “Denver may dial up some more early-down passing, but Wilson doesn’t always stick to the quick-game passing plan, and much of what makes him special is his ability to manufacture high-value but low-efficiency big plays downfield. Wilson can play outstanding football, but stylistically, he may never be able to play the kind of offense that some other quarterbacks thrive in.”