The Denver Broncos have a chance to go into Philadelphia and win the biggest game of the season against the Eagles. Of course, the Broncos will have to play complementary football in all three phases of the game, but Sunday’s game features one of the best matchups of the week.
The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Week, Patrick Surtain II, will go against one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, A.J. Brown.
Brown has had a rough start to his year, and there’s been a ton of drama on social media related to his cryptic tweets. So far this season, Brown’s caught 14 passes for 151 yards for one touchdown on 28 total targets.
He’s hardly been utilized on first down, with most of his production coming on second and third down. The numbers tell the deeper story (from Locked On Broncos per TruMedia)
Brown’s production this season on a down by down basis.
- 1st down: 4 targets, one catch, 8 yards on 35 routes.
- 2nd down: 13 targets, seven catches, 67 yards, two first downs, 1 TD (13 air yards per target) on 49 routes.
- 3rd down: 10 targets, six catches, 76 yards, four first downs (7 air yards per target) on 37 routes.
First down is obviously an interesting one, but with the Eagles’ offense focused on getting Saquon Barkley going, the numbers make sense. Get three or four yards on first down, then target your best receivers on second and third down.
While the Eagles have Brown, the Broncos have Surtain.
Surtain has covered each team’s WR1 this season on a consistent basis, and he’ll likely cover Brown on a majority of Denver’s defensive snaps on Sunday.
Through four games, Surtain has allowed 11 total catches on 18 targets for 122 total yards. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, when Surtain plays man coverage, he’s been stellar.
Denver Broncos Next Gen Stats – PS2 vs. A.J. Brown
Patrick Surtain II has played man coverage on 46.9% of his coverage snaps since 2024, the 5th-highest rate among outside cornerbacks with 300+ coverage snaps.
His 13.2% target rate in man coverage ranks lowest among outside cornerbacks with 150+ man coverage snaps. The Broncos have utilized man coverage on 48.7% of opposing dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the league. They’ve allowed a 48.4% completion percentage and 70.6 passer rating in man, compared to a 65.7% completion percentage and 85.5 passer rating in zone.
Per NGS, A.J. Brown has generated 1.4 yards per route run this season; his previous season-low (2.6 in 2021) is nearly double that mark. His 11.0 air yards per target is at least a full yard shorter than in every other season he’s played with the Eagles, yet his catch rate of 50.0% is at least 10 percentage points lower than every other season of his career.
If Surtain takes away Brown and Jalen Hurts refuses to look his way in Sunday’s game, the attention could shift to Devonta Smith. It wouldn’t come as a shock if Surtain lines up against Smith in several key passing situations as well, considering his playmaking ability.
Kickoff is set for 11:00 a.m. MT on CBS.