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Rational or Irrational: Taking a look at Rockies’ hot takes

Apr 26, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) hits a double against the Atlanta Braves in the sixth inning at SunTrust Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Bold takes, constant arguments and overreactions have taken over the sport’s media world.

Fans and pundits alike have also had blatant reactions to signings, losing streaks and injuries. For the Colorado Rockies, those opinions have run rampant.

Ahead is a look at some of the largest takes and their validity.

Rockies will miss the playoffs

For years, the National League has been building, signing premiere players and creating powerhouses. Now, the Rockies are facing a steep climb.

The Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals all improved in the offseason, with each adding a former Most Valuable Player winner or candidate. Those additions, though still being incorporated, are all making a difference.

Bryce Harper has yet to heat up, but Paul Goldschmidt already accrued three long balls in a single game en route to his season total of nine. Even Josh Donaldson has begun to heat up for the Braves, slugging .727 in the last week.

Both the Milwaukee Brewers with a red-hot Christian Yelich leading the way and Chicago Cubs figure to be leading contenders as well.

Even in a good year for the club, a third consecutive postseason was going to be difficult. The slowest start in franchise history was merely a nail in the proverbial coffin.

Verdict: Rational

Trevor Story is the league’s best shortstop

One of the most efficient ways to analyze player production is to eliminate names, looking at numbers and impact instead. Here’s a look at 2018 stats for a trio of elite shortstops in the league.

When looking, without names, it’s clear that Player A carried the most overall value, per wins above replacement. He also carried the highest total of home runs and stolen bases, slugging the lowest percentage of the three.

In order from left to right, the mystery players are Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez and Trevor Story.

The stats that Story put up were among the best in franchise history. Compared to all Rockies’ shortstops, he had the most single-season home runs and most runs batted in (108). 

While Story is likely going to overtake fan-favorite Troy Tulowitzki among the franchise’s elite, he has hefty competition for the league’s top spot.

Verdict: Irrational

Raimel Tapia is better than Ian Desmond

It doesn’t take a blind reveal to come to two conclusions. First, Raimel Tapia has been streaking lately, showing glimpses of a potential star. Second, Ian Desmond has yet to show those flashes in a Rockies uniform.

In the last two weeks, Tapia has slashed .370/.433/.963, including a spree of three consecutive games with a home run, including one inside the park: 

Desmond has also been on a tear, compared to his first handful of games, over the last two weeks, though it’s resulted in a lower on-base percentage (.226) than batting average (.233) over that span. That rare stat comes courtesy of seven punchouts without a single walk, adding to his total of 24 strikeouts on the year to only three free passes.

Across two-plus years dawning the purple and black, Desmond has produced more ground balls and soft contact than any point in his career, the strikeouts only adding to the burden.

In the field, Tapia possesses greater speed and range than Desmond, with his arm outmatching his teammate as well.

Small sample size notwithstanding, it’s hard to argue, outside of contractual obligations, that Desmond should be the club’s center fielder rather than their fourth outfielder.

Verdict: Rational

The Padres are passing the Rockies already

Parallels between the Rockies and San Diego Padres, after the latest offseason, are vast.

With the latter’s Manny Machado signing, both teams now have a top third baseman in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Story, though the former has just recently made an impact, represent a pair of young stars in the making at shortstop.

To belabor the point, the two even possess young pitching staffs, both with a pair of aces in the making. A three-win difference has represented how close the teams are so far in 2019.

In 2019, the Padres have sprinted to a 15-11 record, while the Rockies sputtered to a 12-14 record, a mark that has greatly improved since their franchise-worst start. In run differential, the Padres (-12) already trail their foe (-11).

Many projected the Padres to make a run at the Rockies as the second-best team in the National League West in the next few years. Despite a hot start, that timeline is still intact.

The Padres are tied for the youngest roster in the league according to ESPN at just 26.6 years old on average.

Once the season draws on, the veterans of the Rockies will begin to take control. Charlie Blackmon, Arenado and Story have shown many times they can carry the offense for stretches. While Machado has shown the same, the Padres lack that presence outside of their newly-added star.

Pitch counts have already been suggested for their breakout starter Chris Paddack, while Joey Lucchesi has yet to put together a full season of dominance either.

As the season progresses, the two teams will swap spots, the Rockies pulling ahead. Arguing the brighter future in the next three years likely yields an inverse answer.

Verdict: Irrational

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