As the NBA Trade Deadline nears, reports around the league are suggesting that Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are both open to a trade. If that trade happens, the rest of the trade deadline will follow in earnest, seeing as those larger conversations are holding up several moves.
For the Denver Nuggets, their moves aren’t expected to be large; however, the Nuggets are reportedly expected to make a trade before in deadline on February 5th.
According to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line Substack, teams around the league expect the Nuggets to make a cost-cutting move in an attempt to duck the luxury tax.
“League personnel anticipate that the Nuggets will soon execute a small move of some sort to evade the luxury tax since Denver currently hovers roughly $500,000 above that line. The Nuggets, sources say, are confident that they’ll be able to do so without sacrificing anyone from their preferred rotation.”
This is right in line with what I’ve expected Denver to do for the last two months, but it’s easier said than done. Only two teams around the NBA – Brooklyn and Utah – have cap space entering the trade deadline. The Nuggets and other NBA teams all know that, meaning the cost to simply shed salary might be higher than expected due to a lack of available suitors. Other teams are allowed to trade for additional salary if they are below the first luxury tax apron (currently 22 teams) but several of those teams are hardcapped and unlikely to take on additional salary unless they’re compensated well.
The Nuggets don’t have extensive assets to add to a salary dump. They also don’t have an extensive number of contracts that make sense to shed. Zeke Nnaji’s $8.1 million deal immediately jumps out, but other teams will want compensation for taking on an additional two years in salary obligation.
After that, looking at Julian Strawther ($2.67 million) or Hunter Tyson ($2.22 million) are the likely candidates, but their salary numbers aren’t high enough to generate significant relief anyway. One of the goals after getting under the tax is to convert Spencer Jones to a full-time contract, but that costs money too.
Can Denver duck the tax AND convert Spencer Jones? Time will tell.
Fischer also shares an interesting tidbit about Peyton Watson and his perceived market around the league following an excellent January.
“It must be said, though, that rival executives are increasingly curious about Denver’s likely struggles to retain Peyton Watson this summer given the fourth-year swingman’s recent breakout play amid all of the Nuggets’ health woes. We’ll certainly be tracking this situation over the coming months, since Watson’s restricted free agency is already shaping up to become a major domino of the offseason.
Sources say teams that are projected to have cap space — notably such as the Lakers — are already preparing interest.”
Watson’s success has clearly caught the attention of other teams around the NBA. It’s notable that the Lakers, based on Los Angeles where Watson grew up, are specifically mentioned as a team keeping tabs on him.
This is something the Nuggets will have to navigate, and it’s not going to be easy. They’re not going to pay an extreme luxury tax bill next season, which applies pressure to the money paid to Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, and the expected contract for Watson. Can Denver keep all four on top of paying max money for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray? It’s unlikely, and other teams know it.