The old baseball axiom says you can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose it, meaning that getting off to a good start is crucial to staying in the playoff race all season long. But what does a hot start teach you about your team if they aren’t a realistic postseason contender?
Are the New York Mets the team to beat now? What does coming out of the gate with six straight road wins mean for a team that only won 21 road games all last year?
Over the course of an entire season, baseball has a way of evening things out, and the Rockies “correction” happened early when they ran into two of the best teams in the National League and the pitching match-ups started tilting the other direction. Now sitting at 9-7 after a 7-2 start, Colorado is pretty much exactly where we thought they’d be at this point – competitive, but flawed.
April is showing us that this year’s Rockies are much improved over last season, but still not a playoff team. Not yet. As April winds down, and Colorado sits in the middle of the National League West standings, it’s clear that they still have a long ways to go to be at the level of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the cream of a tough National League West crop.
We’ve had answers to several questions already, and much of what we’ve seen is very encouraging.
We may have been the only ones who already knew that Corey Dickerson is maybe the best hitter the country has never heard of. His hot start has been crucial to helping Colorado stay in the mix, and his history tells us that he could be a guy in contention for a batting title before too long.
We already knew that the infield defense – when the first string is intact (meaning utility man Daniel Descalso is not stumbling around at shortstop or trying to play first base) is certainly as good as any in baseball today if not the best in both leagues. Nolan Arenado should have already locked up another Gold Glove after just two weeks. He’s been that great.
And we strongly suspected that LaTroy Hawkins was past his days as a big league closer, which is the case. His 42-year-old legs are gone (duh) meaning his pitches are consistently up and his arm can’t take the strain. He’s on the disabled list now.
We also knew going in that the starting rotation lacked an “ace” or even a legitimate “No. 2” starter. This is a staff with a single “No. 3” – presuming that Jorge De La Rosa overcomes his typical slow and injury delayed start – and a bunch of 4’s and 5’s. They’ve pitched like it to this point. Up and down. Right around .500.
We knew that if they stayed healthy (so far, so good; fingers crossed) that the combination of great defense and solid offense would give Colorado a great chance to win when the other team rolled out the back of their starting rotation, or when they played other pitching-challenged clubs like Milwaukee. The West Coast road trip was a great example. The Rockies missed Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong at the top of the San Francisco Giants rotation and were able to grind out three straight wins. A very nice accomplishment. Then, they ran into Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, and the results were different. You had to like the way they battled and competed, but they were at a huge disadvantage going in, and it showed.
So all in all, 9-7 after 16 games (nine of them on the road) is more than acceptable. Stay this course and the season will be a success.
Can they do that? There still are some lingering questions. For instance, why have the starting pitchers – with the exception of Kyle Kendrick’s opening day start in Milwaukee and the last two outings against the Padres – seemed so reluctant to “pitch to contact?” With a stellar defense behind them, Rockies pitchers should be pounding the strike zone, forcing hitters to swing the bat and letting the defense work for them. Instead, the starters have walked 45 guys and run up high pitch counts in 13 of the 16 starts. Eddie Butler has 11 walks in 16 innings, Tyler Matzek has 10 walks (and hit three batters) in 15, Kendrick has 10 walks in 23 2/3 and Jordan Lyles has 10 walks in 24 2/3. That’s forced these starters to hit the showers before the seventh inning all but three times. That problem needs to be solved – quickly – before the bullpen implodes. Perhaps the last two solid starts by Kendrick and Lyles are a sign of change.
Can the key members of this team stay healthy? Early returns are good, but then again they’ve only been in Denver for about a week and the physical effects of the altitude on their bodies, which was used as a crutch in previous seasons, have not kicked in yet. Want a great sign? How about Dickerson playing with a painful condition in his left foot and still going out there and producing pretty much every night? You have to hope that attitude rubs off.
Will Carlos Gonzalez ever get it going? He’s been miserable thus far, hitting just .175. Meanwhile, Charlie Blackmon has not been able to replicate his fast start from a season ago. And how long can they go with a four-man bench? Carrying 13 pitchers on a 25-man roster places a heavy burden on the everyday players.
The biggest question has yet to be answered: If the Rockies continue on a path that keeps them around the .500 mark during the first half of the season – and on the cusp of the playoff race – what will management do? Will they be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? If they don’t have a realistic playoff shot, could we see either Tulowitzki or Gonzalez – or both – get traded? Remember, the Mets – currently the hottest team in baseball – want Tulo badly. And they’ve got some big-time arms in their farm system.
The final answer? The Rockies reside in a very tough division. Going 81-81 would be a big step forward, but it would probably be good for fourth place in this NL West.