There are certain things a superstar QB brings to an NFL team.
For the Denver Broncos, Russell Wilson will bring that dynamic deep ball, escapability, improvisation and protection of the ball.
In fact, his passer rating has topped 100 more than any other quarterback the last five years, and one of the best in the NFL the last few years in big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays.
Big time throw percentage vs. turnover worthy throws 2021. Credit: PFF.
The good news just keeps coming with Wilson, though.
Also according to Pro Football Focus, his 91.3 passer rating has been second-best in the league since 2019 in one-score games.
The best QBs in 1⃣-score games pic.twitter.com/3rT4mI6hXN
— PFF (@PFF) August 25, 2022
And the Broncos need all the help they can get in close games, going 1-5 last year in one-score contests.
His high passer rating in close games seems to vibe with the big-time play rate vs. turnover-worthy throws stat, from the Pro Football Focus 2022 QB Annual. In those metrics, Wilson was third in big-time throws last year, even when he missed three games due to injury and was somewhat shaky when he came back arguably too early.
What exactly is a big time throw? PFF explains:
“In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage the further the ball is thrown down the field. Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Turnover-worthy throws are seemingly self-explanatory, and Wilson doesn’t put the ball in jeopardy very often. To wit, his six interceptions last year were the second-fewest of his career.
To put it all together, Wilson can destroy a defense with the deep balls while sustaining drives by not turning the ball over.
Simply, teammates know they’re in the game no matter the score when they have a top-10 QB on their roster.
There’s no doubt that part plays into his superb passer rating in one-score games; teammates are stepping their game up around Wilson.
Look, teams make or miss the playoffs due to close games. Playoff-worthy teams win the ones they should and steal a few they weren’t expected to.
The Broncos, for instance, went 1-5 in one-score games last year. If, somehow, they could’ve gone 4-2 in those close games, they would’ve made the playoffs.
And over the last two years, the team went 5-11 in one-score games under Vic Fangio. Over that same timeframe, the Kansas City Chiefs went 13-4 in one-score games.
Those Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 13 straight times, with K.C. winning the AFC West six straight times, with two Super Bowl appearances and one win.
Denver has to find a way to beat the Chiefs at least once per year if they have any hope of winning the West. Of course, the Broncos could make it as a wildcard team, which is more likely, anyway.
But it’s still valuable to see just how stellar the Chiefs have been in those close games, while Denver’s been one of the worst for years.
Wilson is the tide that lifts all boats with the Broncos. With him, Denver will not only be more competitive — and ultimately win more one-score games — but they’ll be on the positive end of more blowouts in the near future, too.
In 2022, Wilson and Co. have a tough road to the playoffs. But, expect them to make a push, and 10-7 is certainly within the realm of possibilities for the orange and blue.