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Sean Payton says it’s ‘realistic’ Broncos move up in NFL Draft, but is it?

Rich Kurtzman
Sean Payton at NFL Owner's Meetings on Monday, March 25, 2024.

Sean Payton at NFL Owner's Meetings on Monday, March 25, 2024. Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA TODAY Sports.

Is Sean Payton just doing what coaches and GMs do this time of year; blowing smoke?

At the NFL owner’s meetings this morning, the Denver Broncos head coach called it “realistic” for his team to move up from No. 12 for a QB.

But, is it really, or is he just sending a smoke screen in the lead up to the NFL Draft?

Payton and Broncos don’t have enough picks to move up in NFL Draft

The Broncos are in quarterback trouble in more than one way due to the way the Russell Wilson deal worked out.

First and foremost, they don’t have a starting quarterback now that Wilson has been cut and re-signed to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Second, they are eating $85 million in dead cap, including $53 million this year. And third, because Denver won eight games, they only have the 12th pick in this year’s draft.

And many believe the top-4 quarterbacks—Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy—will be gone in the first six picks.

Compounding that, the Broncos don’t have a second-round draft pick this year, either. That was traded away to New Orleans when they signed Sean Payton as head coach.

All told, Denver has eight picks, with six of them coming on Day 3 of the draft:

That puts Denver at 20th overall in terms of overall draft capital.

Considering all those factors, the Broncos don’t realistically have the draft capital needed to move up, at least, not significantly. It’s actually more likely Denver trades back and acquires more picks.

Williams, Daniels, and Maye are likely to go 1-2-3, depending on the expert mock draft one refers to. And McCarthy went from a second-tier quarterback to one of the most-hyped players over the last few months.

Simply, his draft stock has skyrocketed, and we’ve already seen movement.

The Minnesota Vikings—rumored to be in love with McCarthy—just added the 23rd overall pick to their arsenal, in addition to their No. 11 pick. Minnesota traded their second-round pick (No. 42), and a sixth-rounder, and a second next year for the first-round pick, and a sixth this year. That’s the kind of package it takes to acquire another first-round pick, and many expect the Vikings to package their two first-round picks to move up into the top-6.

J.J. McCarthy is off the table for the Broncos, but Bo Nix is possible

So, if it’s actually unrealistic for Denver to move up for McCarthy, who is in play then?

Well, the Broncos need a lot of pieces. Offensive tackle, EDGE, tight end, and cornerback are all in play at No. 12. But, Denver could still go quarterback, and Bo Nix would be the most likely one at that spot.

Obviously, Nix would be the sixth quarterback taken at that point, and many have him ranked around the 30s in terms of all potential picks this year. So, taking him at 12 would seemingly be a reach.

However, many believe Nix is a perfect fit for Payton’s offense.

Many different mock drafts have the Broncos taking Nix, too. Earlier in the year, a bunch had Denver taking McCarthy, but that ship seems to have sailed.

Also of note, FanDuel has the Broncos as the odds-on favorite to draft Nix. And the odds have become more likely, increasing from +250 a week ago to +175 today.

Credit: FanDuel App

If the Broncos think they can get Nix at the end of the first round, it will make a lot of sense for them to trade back, earn a second or third-round pick in the process, and then nab him there. Now, that would be a great move by George Paton and Sean Payton.

We are exactly one month away from the kickoff of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Broncos need a quarterback, but they need players at basically every position on the field with their current rebuild in progress.

Keep checking in at Mile High Sports as we bring you updates as they happen.

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