You can make a case that every draft selection is a risk-reward proposition, but there’s no denying that some are, well, risky-er. Some are rewardy-er, too. And it’s an organization’s job to decide which of the two outweigh the other.
But in Jaylon Smith, there may never have been a tougher decision.
Smith, All-American linebacker out of Notre Dame, is a generational talent. Six months ago, he was the consensus No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft class, and it wasn’t really close. In today’s day and age, there may not be a linebacker more suited for this new version of the NFL.
And yet, there are some organizations who have taken him off their draft board entirely.
In a meaningless bowl game, four quarters away from the start of his NFL career, Smith took a wrong step and blew out his knee. And while tearing his ACL and LCL were bad enough, the real damage comes in the stretched peroneal nerve, which has now left Smith without the ability to lift his left foot. And even today, on the eve of the NFL draft, no one knows if that nerve will ever heal.
So as teams prepare to possibly draft Jaylon Smith this weekend, they’ll face one of the biggest uncertainties a franchise has ever faced: Are they drafting a future Hall of Famer or a kid who’s played his last snap of football?
That question has forced Smith to plummet down draft boards — from the projected No. 1 overall pick, out of the first round and possibly into day three. And it’s completely understandable. While the talent is undeniable, NFL teams already know that there is no chance he plays in 2016, his 2017 season is already in doubt and there are no assurances he’ll ever play again.
That’s a lot to risk for any general manager.
But according to Adam Schefter, there are several out there willing to take the risk.
Even with the catastrophic knee injury, Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith is expected to gone by end of round 3, maybe earlier, per league sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 27, 2016
One NFL head coach even predicted this morning that Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith could go "at the end of (round) 1, maybe round 2."
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 27, 2016
The next question is: Could (should) that team be the Denver Broncos?
Denver has some serious needs they need to fill, but they’re also Super Bowl champions, and if any general manager has the job security to select one of the riskiest players in draft history, it’s John Elway.
With or without Jaylon Smith, the Broncos defense is sure to be one of the best in the NFL, if not the best. They can afford to redshirt him for a year, even two, and if he ever becomes 90 percent of the player he was projected to be, the Denver Broncos just got the NFL’s next great defensive player.
So yes, I believe that if the Broncos’ medical staff has looked at Smith’s knee and think there’s even a sliver of a chance that his nerve will heal, I’d pull the trigger; round two would be great, but I’d do it in round one, too, if I felt he’d be gone before I got another chance.
There is one caveat, though: They better know what they’re doing at quarterback.
If the Broncos come out of the draft without one of the classes’ top-five prospects, Colin Kaepernick or someone else they get in a trade, drafting Smith would be a mistake. If the do find another option — someone who can at least compete with Mark Sanchez — then go ahead and pull the trigger on Smith. If someone is going to take the risk to reap the reward, it might as well be the Broncos.
That’s the kind of opportunity you’re afforded when you when the Super Bowl.