The NBA trade deadline arrives at 1:00pm on Thursday, February 5th, and it’s growing more apparent that the Denver Nuggets won’t be buyers as many had hoped. Instead, they’re likely to be looking for a relatively minor salary dump that will save them from going deeper into NBA luxury tax purgatory.
So it doesn’t appear that any reinforcements are on the way for this season, which is too bad. But that’s the reality of today’s NBA salary cap structure. It does a lot more harm than good.
Whatever happens at this season’s deadline, the Nuggets have a brewing salary-cap quandary for next year that will need a lot of attention when this season ends…whenever that is.
As a follower of all things Nuggets, ask yourself this question: Going into next season, would you rather have (a healthy) Cameron Johnson on your roster, or a healthy Peyton Watson?
There’s probably going to be a choice like that which will have to be made.
Watson is set to become a restricted free agent. That means Denver retains what amounts to a right of first refusal for the fourth-year wing, who’s made a significant improvement in his offensive game, and – along with first-time All-Star Jamal Murray – is most responsible for keeping the Nuggets afloat during Nikola Jokic’s 16-game absence. Six months ago, the uber-athletic but offensively challenged Watson was a question mark. He had a high ceiling, but with a floor that was lower than you’d like. He’s turned that narrative completely around now, and has other teams in the league hoping – and believing – that the Nuggets will have to decide to let him walk after the season rather than sign him to a fat new contract and absorb a huge luxury-tax hit.
That means that it’s looking very likely that unless the Nuggets brass can pull off another trade(s) miracle like they did last offseason, they won’t be able to/want to keep Watson at a greatly increased salary. He’s currently making $2.8 mil per. His next deal is more than likely going to be north of $25 mil per – nice work if you can get it.
We know this much: Jokic is very likely to sign a new contract this summer. Murray isn’t going anywhere. Both Murray and Aaron Gordon have mega-contracts that run through 2028. And Christian Braun (signed at $25 million a year through 2030) will also be here for a while longer.
So how do they possibly fit Watson into that salary structure?
Moves have to be made. The obvious expendable is forward Zeke Nnaji, who has 2026 and 2027 left on his contract that pays $8 million per year. That’s the first guy Denver will try to trade, for obvious reasons. But they need a lot more salary relief than that if they’re going to keep Watson around.
Which brings us back to Johnson, the defensive standout/three-point sharpshooter the Nuggets got back in the Michael Porter Jr. trade. Johnson’s contract has one more season on it (after this one) at $23 million. Could – should – the Nuggets consider trading Johnson next summer (after he’s healthy, of course) and have nothing left to show for the MPJ trade… but be able to keep Watson?
Would that be so terrible?
Let’s remember, with Watson’s improved three point shooting – and he had a pair of 30-point games in January and was the best Nugget on the court during Denver’s recent home loss to Oklahoma City – and his improved overall skill set as a so-called “3-and-D” guy, he matches almost exactly what Johnson brings to the court each night.
It could turn out that Watson is even better at it than Johnson is.
While the Nuggets are still technically without three starters due to injury, the only real legitimate hole in the lineup at the moment is at the power forward spot, where they don’t – and won’t for a while – have Gordon available (which is why they need another big man.) Both Braun and Johnson have been admirably replaced, and Johnson may have trouble wresting that starting spot back from Watson as the season heads into the homestretch. All things considered, keeping Watson and trading Johnson in the offseason certainly looks like the best option… provided Denver’s front office can make some trade magic happen again.
