If you believe the numbers, the Denver Nuggets’ offense has been off-the-charts great this season, with and without Nikola Jokić in the lineup. Their offensive efficiency rating is record setting and all that.
But if you watch the Nuggets try to execute their vaunted “two-man game” via the same high pick-and-roll, half-court offense they continue to run late in games, it’s fair to ask yourself if there’s some improvement needed at that end of the court.
Of course, Denver’s spotty defense gets the lion’s share of the criticism when the Nuggets blow another late-game lead. And there’s certainly merit to that. Without any sort of rim protection or the shot-blocking capability of guys like Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, the Nuggets can often look defenseless. That is, until late in games ,when they turn up the intensity at that end.
But so does the other team. And that’s when chinks in the Nuggets’ offensive game start to show. Lately, when the other team decides it’s crunch time, and they start to throw double- and triple-teams at Joker and fellow All-Star Jamal Murray, Denver’s offense has come to a screeching halt. The Nuggets have been turnover-prone, and they’ve basically kept opposing teams in games that otherwise should have been one-sided wins. Joker himself had seven turnovers in the come-from-ahead home loss to Cleveland, and nine two nights later in the less-than-stellar win over Memphis right before the All-Star break. Joker nearly had a quadruple-double, but not in the good way.
Could it be that the Nuggets’ offensive scheme has grown a bit stale?
Under former head coach Michael Malone and now under rookie head coach David Adelman, Denver has run the same basic offense for most of the past decade. It’s an offense that may not be totally unique in the NBA, but it’s certainly not typical. In the half-court, everything runs through the best player in the world, a center who starts out camped out by the three-point line and then offers his running mate, most times Murray, a chance to run a pick-and-roll that includes the option to pass out to the wing for a three-point attempt (mostly back when Michael Porter Jr. was a Nugget) or under the basket to a cutter/dunker like Gordon.
It’s not complicated, and those excellent offensive stats are a testament to the greatness of those two players (with some help from their teammates, of course.) But is it possible that it’s become too predictable? Too easy for other teams to scout and prepare for? Think about the way Denver won 10 of 16 games while Joker was out: There was little to none of the high pick-and-roll, more passing with different guys taking the late-game shots. Not at all predictable, and somehow, it worked.
Most basketball coaches detest dribbling. They want ball movement; the beauty of seeing a basket scored without the ball touching the ground. For 15 seasons from 1999-2014, Hall of Fame coach Gregg Popovich had his own superstar center Tim Duncan set up near the paint, with the ball whipping around the perimeter until it found the open shooter. During that span, the Spurs won five NBA titles.
The Nuggets on the other hand, seemingly lead the NBA in dribbles per possession. Both Murray and Jokic do it to excess. They pound the ball on the floor while the other three players on the court are pretty much stagnant. Joker’s incredible passing skills still allow him to still find an open shooter much of the time, as his large pile of assists demonstrate. But those passes are also ending up in the wrong hands a lot of the time, as borne out by his high turnover numbers.
And when the double- or triple-team arrives and creates a turnover, bad shot or even a sho- clock violation, it’s happening because the other team knows exactly what the Nuggets are going to try to run, how they intend to try to score… and how to stop it.
No one would expect Adelman or anyone associated with the Nuggets to scrap the high pick-and-roll offense in favor of a brand-new scheme during the season. But it’s worth looking at small ways to tweak what they’ve been doing on offense to provide other options, especially late in games, when someone else needs to step up and make the opponent pay for double-teaming Joker and/or Jamal.
If it ain t broke… that doesn’t mean it can’t still stand a little fixing.
