Strike 3: “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have no luck at all…” – Eric Clapton
For the Colorado Rockies, even when the deck seems stacked in their favor, for whatever reason, Lady Luck never seems to be wearing purple. It’s true that people shouldn’t lose sleep over things that are out of their control, but…
While luck is often defined in athletic circles as, “when preparation meets opportunity,” not sure that applies when you’re dealing with ping pong balls.
The latest example of the Rockies’ lack of good fortune came this week at Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings. Going into the MLB Draft Lottery, the Rockies were sitting pretty. Even though the Chicago White Sox had a (far) worse record, the Rockies had the best odds (22.45%) of getting the first pick (tied with the Miami Marlins) because the ChiSox weren’t eligible due to revenue sharing rules. (According to MLB.com: “teams that are ‘payor clubs’ – ones that give revenue-sharing dollars – are not allowed to be selected in consecutive lotteries, and Chicago picked fifth overall in 2024.”)
However…
When the ping pong balls stopped bouncing, Colorado fell to No. 4 overall, behind the winning Washington Nationals (who won a World Series a few years back with the help of No. 1 overall draft pick, Stephen Strasburg) the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners, who had just a 0.53% shot at the top pick. Despite having lost 101 games last season, this isn’t even the highest the Rockies will have drafted come next summer. It was even worse for the Marlins, who fell all the way to seventh.
Colorado – which has never had the first overall pick – will have the second overall pick in the second round, which is not affected by the first round draft lottery and is strictly based on last season’s record.
Scouts say the teams with the top six picks will all be very pleased with the players they’re able to select this summer. But there will be a true No. 1 – likely another one of former Rockie Matt Holiday’s son, Ethan – and he won’t be a Rockie. Hopefully Colorado can still draft one of the elite pitchers available this time around.
Regardless, the Rockies “draft and develop” organizational philosophy won’t change. The players they select in every draft will always be the focus. There are needed stopgaps. For example, Colorado is rumored to be after Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, who’s just 23 years old and became MLB eligible just days ago. Colorado’s chances of outbidding teams for his services are slim. They also signed free agent infielder Thairo Estrada, who they hope can fill the void at second base in the near term after the release of Brendan Rodgers. They’re still counting on young Adael Amador for the long haul.
And the young core, that includes Gold Glovers Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, will still have to carry the load.
As for the young pitching that is so very badly needed? That’s still TBD.
If you’re a diehard – or if you’re manager Bud Black – you’re also counting on the return to health of starting pitchers German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela, along with the fragile Kris Bryant, who’s massive salary and oft-injured back are both albatrosses for the franchise.
Will they lose 100 games again for the third straight season? A lot of things – like good health – will have to bounce right for that not to happen. And given their track record in the luck department…
The bad news? The Rockies will not be eligible for the draft lottery next year regardless of their record.
