Strike 3: The 2-2 Colorado State Rams are enjoying a much needed bye week, sitting pretty much exactly where they were supposed to be at this point.
They may be where we thought they’d be, but they don’t look how most expected them to look while getting there.
Through four games, something has taken the air out of the Air Raid offense.
A year ago, these Rams were featuring a dynamic “Air Raid” passing attack that kept defensive coordinators up at night. Then-freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi was flinging it all over the yard, racking up big passing stats on his way to leading the Mountain West conference in total offense with 3,433 yards, to go with 22 touchdowns. He also led all conference QB’s in yards per game.
As CSU struggled to a 5-7 record, the problem for the young QB was turnovers. Along with four lost fumbles, Fowler-Nicolosi also tossed 16 interceptions. Rams head coach Jay Norvell didn’t place all the blame on his signal caller. “Our injuries and lack of depth and productivity at running back really put undue pressure on a freshman quarterback,” Norvell said before the season. “The talent that Brayden has gave us promise and really gave us a fighting chance in games to win…but we put too much on him.”
Working behind a veteran offensive line, Norvell pledged to put more emphasis on the running game this season. He’s made good on that pledge. Through those first four contests, the Rams have thrown 112 passes and run the ball 145 times. CSU has six rushing touchdowns, but just two touchdown passes.
There’s certainly nothing wrong with leaning a little more heavily on your run game. Most good teams do. But has that come at the expense of having a dangerous passing attack?
While BFN was in full out gunslinger mode a season ago, the lowest passing yards output in a single game was 202 yards against San Diego State. This year, through four games, CSU is averaging just a tick over 150 yards per game in the air, with a game-high of just 209 against CU. They’re averaging just 16 attempts per game. And if this is being done in an attempt to be more secure with the ball, that part isn’t working. The Rams have just two touchdown passes on the season, while tossing five interceptions.
Fowler-Nicolosi simply doesn’t look as aggressive or confident as he did during his freshman season. He’s not pushing the ball downfield like he did a year ago. This time around, he’s looking cautious; more like a freshman. At times it sort of looks like CSU is running a prevent offense.
Why?
There’s no question that Norvell’s seat is at the very least warm as they move into conference play. The word is that CSU needs to qualify for a bowl game in order for the third year head coach to get a fourth year. It’s reportedly “bowl game or bust” in the Fort. Remember, he’s working for a new school president and new athletic director. He’s not their hire. You can understand why Norvell would be feeling some heat.
The good news is that as of this week, CSU’s schedule includes the bottom four teams in the Mountain West, who are a combined 2-13.
So you’re saying there’s a chance.
Maybe his players realize what’s a stake as well? Perhaps they’re playing very cautiously, trying really hard to not make mistakes? Or maybe the game plans have been devised in such a way as to try to limit the kinds of mistakes that that impact the win-loss column? That is something that happened to the Rams several times a year ago.
Whatever the reason, CSU is not playing to their strength. And if they continue doing so, they may very well end up exactly where they don’t want to be, missing out on that all-important bowl invitation.
