Strike 3: It’s finally here. The Denver Nuggets tip off perhaps their most anticipated season yet tonight at Golden State. The roster has been re-tooled, there’s a new and more “player friendly” head coach in place, and they still have the best player in the world in his prime on the roster. So what are fair and reasonable expectations for this team?
More importantly, what do the Nuggets expect from themselves? We know that an NBA title is what it’s all about. But along the way to the playoffs, what should their goal be for the regular season?
The defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder still reside in Denver’s division, the NBA’s Northwest. So do the Nuggets nemesis, the Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s safe to call it the toughest division in the league. Denver won it in 2023 (when they went on to win their first NBA title) while the Thunder have captured it the last two seasons. How important would it be for the Nuggets to win the division title again and perhaps earn home court advantage throughout the postseason?
How important is it to win the Western Conference and be the top seed? History tells us that you don’t necessarily have to win the division or the conference in order to excel in the postseason, but it certainly makes the road to the championship a whole lot smoother.
Former Nuggets coach Michael Malone was criticized in 2024 for pushing too hard during the regular season in order to get enough wins to earn that top seed. He played his starters too many minutes and they were worn down by the time the playoffs arrived. But Malone was keenly aware that being the top seed played a big role in Denver winning the NBA title the prior season. He was also very aware that his young bench wasn’t strong enough for him to play the reserves more minutes and still win close games.
This year’s team, with a new and enhanced set of reserves, appears – on paper at least – to be strong enough to be able to afford new coach David Adelman the opportunity to give his starters more rest during close games. That would be a major blessing come playoff time.
Is the new bench strong enough to help carry the team to enough regular season victories to earn that all important top seed come the postseason? That’s the burning question at Ball Arena right now.
Playoff positioning is important. It’s not just about home court advantage, it’s about who you have to get past in the early rounds in order to get to the Western Conference Finals with something left in your tank. By finishing fourth in the West last season, Denver got home court against the Los Angeles Clippers, which was a plus when they had to go seven games. But they had to match up with top seed OKC in the next round and they didn’t get that deciding Game Seven at home. If they’d have won three more games and finished second, they wouldn’t have faced the eventual champs – whom they heroically pushed to the limit – until the WCF. And who knows who’s doing what by that point.
Last season the Nuggets, Lakers and Clippers all won 50 games. Tiebreakers decided the pecking order. OKC ran away with the division, outpacing second-place Houston by 16 full games. But the Rockets only won 52, so second place and an easier road was reachable.
Who knows what the Thunder will do this time around. They have largely the same roster coming back. Perhaps the post-title malaise that’s so common in pro sports will catch up with them? And the Rockets, now featuring Kevin Durant, figure to remain right in the hunt. The new-look Nuggets are – again, on paper – much better suited to tangle with the best in the west this season and come out on top.
The goal for Adelman’s team should be to both not overuse the starters AND to still win 55-60 regular season games. That would put Denver in prime position come playoff time, where the Nuggets talent and veteran savvy could help carry them back to the top of the NBA.
