Watching the New York Knicks win an inconceivable Game 4 against the San Antonio Spurs should give Denver Nuggets fans equal measures of hope and frustration.
On one hand, the Nuggets and Knicks are built in tangibly similar ways: three connective wings and forwards (Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby vs Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, and Aaron Gordon) surrounding a star point guard and center duo. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have shined brightly in these playoffs, but almost universally before the playoffs began, NBA fans would’ve chosen Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as the better duo.
On the other hand, that didn’t manifest for Denver in these playoffs. The biggest reason why is the stars not playing up to par in the same way New York’s stars have excelled. Brunson has been a national hero for much of these playoffs despite some occasional inefficiencies, while Towns was New York’s most impactful player in the playoffs until having to contend with Victor Wembanyama all the time.
Jokic and Murray didn’t play well in these playoffs on either end of the floor by comparison. That sets back the team’s vision for championship success significantly when the star caliber performances aren’t there every night.
But just as impactful is the difference in OG Anunoby vs Aaron Gordon this year. In the playoffs, Anunoby is having an “elite role player” breakout by averaging over 20 points, 6 assists, and a steal and a block per game while shooting 57% from the field and 50% from three. He’s been incredible, highlighted by the heroic tip-in during Wednesday night’s Game 4 comeback to give the Knicks a 3-1 lead in the playoffs.
Aaron Gordon is clearly capable of the same. He just had a similar moment in the 2025 playoffs with multiple buzzer beaters, versatile shotmaking, and defensive impact. Unfortunately, injuries prevented him from doing something similar in these playoffs. He suited up just just three games and had subpar numbers. Combining that lack of impact with the Jokic/Murray struggles made things difficult for Denver from the start.
So while the Knicks and Nuggets are built in similar ways, the Knicks were the team to execute, to respond to adversity. The Nuggets couldn’t rise to the challenge and looked about as far away from a confident playoff run as they’ve ever been. Did the Knicks have an easier path at the start? Sure. Did the Nuggets miss an incredibly simple opportunity after the injuries sustained by Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo? Undoubtedly.
So, what do the Nuggets do? Do they run it back and hope for a better run of health? For the stars to rise to the occasion this time around? For a performance with more resilience and toughness under pressure like the Knicks have shown throughout this NBA Finals run?
Or, do the Nuggets change up the energy on the roster for the first time in a long time?
There are of course positives and negatives to making serious changes to a roster that won a championship three years ago.
Let’s go over the negatives first. The idea of change for the sake of change doesn’t sit right with many people. Over the past three regular seasons, the Nuggets have a +16.4 Net Rating when Jokic, Murray, and Gordon share the floor when low leverage plays (garbage time) are eliminated. The formula works when they’re out there together, and the biggest concerns are when they aren’t sharing the floor.
Yes, there are some injury concerns with both Murray and Gordon, but there’s always the possibility that they just stay healthy next year. It’s not so outlandish. Jokic will turn 32 in February, while Murray turns 30 in the same month. Aaron Gordon turns 31 before the season. They’re not that old, certainly older than their physical peak years but not so old that they can’t string together more great years together if given the opportunity.
If you believe in the premise of Denver’s three best players staying together and simply think the role players around them need to be better, that’s a simpler process. The Nuggets are hoping for Peyton Watson to sustain his breakout from this past season. They’re hoping for a bounce back from Christian Braun. Cam Johnson can absolutely factor into what they’re doing.
It’s not outlandish to think that a team that won 54 games last year with poor injury luck could bounce back in a regular season and playoff environment by simply playing better and getting another role player or two.
Then again, it has been three full years since Denver’s title run. That matters, and as time wears on, the Nuggets look less and less like the team that dominated the Western Conference.
Teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio were the best regular season squads in the NBA and met in the Conference Finals this year. They didn’t exist as currently constructed when the Nuggets won their title, and those teams are only getting better.
In order to compete with those elite West squads (and the Minnesota Timberwolves) the Nuggets have to be at peak performance athletically. Getting hurt again simply isn’t an option vs these teams, at least as the Nuggets are currently constructed. Denver has their primary formula, but if it doesn’t work, they don’t have a way to pivot to other alternatives like winning with defense or physicality. They’re built around shotmaking and execution but haven’t done that in the last three years as a team.
Is the fourth year going to be different? Possibly. Is it the best choice to make in order to give the Nuggets the best possible chance to win another championship? Perhaps not.
So, what do the Nuggets do about it?
Outlined below is an offseason plan built around making the Nuggets different that was discussed in the most recent Pickaxe and Roll episode. It’s a comprehensive plan that makes sweeping changes ahead of next year.
Are they better? Perhaps. Are they better equipped to match up with the athleticism and physicality of these teams? Probably.
Trade #1: A Three-Team Blockbuster
- Denver Nuggets receive Franz Wagner, Goga Bitadze, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia, and Dalton Knecht
- Orlando Magic receive Jamal Murray and DaRon Holmes II
- Los Angeles Lakers receive Christian Braun, Noah Penda, 46th pick via ORL, 49th pick via DEN
The Magic do this deal to break up Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, bringing in an elite playmaking guard to create for Banchero and space for him off-ball in different lineup configurations. The Lakers do this deal to add a long term wing option that fits well next to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves while clearing out some players they weren’t playing consistently.
The Nuggets do this to add a big playmaking wing with potential in Franz Wagner. He’s different from Murray but certainly a bigger, defensive minded player who’s still expanding his game on the offensive end. Denver adds a variety of role players to the mix to help out different parts of their rotation.
Trade #2: The Financial Reality
- Denver Nuggets receive Duncan Robinson
- Detroit Pistons receive Cam Johnson
The Pistons do this deal because they desperately need a frontcourt option that can space the floor next to Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. Rather than retain Tobias Harris, they add a better offensive player in Johnson and open up rotation space in the backcourt to add another creator or increase the roles of players like Ron Holland and Daniss Jenkins.
The Nuggets lose Johnson but get back another quality shooting wing. Robinson is someone that can handle the basketball to create for others a bit, competes defensively, and above all draws gravity with his perimeter shooting. He’s the type of player the Nuggets would need if they move on from Murray and add Franz Wagner in his place.
Trade #3: Room for Development
- Denver Nuggets receive the 13th pick in the 2026 Draft and select point guard Labaron Philon Jr.
- Miami Heat receive Julian Strawther, the 26th pick, and a 2031 first round pick swap
The specific team doesn’t matter as much, but if there’s a team that’s willing to trade down, this is the move that ties together the entire offseason. This draft class has some really interesting guards in the lottery. One of them is likely to slip, and it might be Labaron Philon. I won’t pretend to know enough about his game as compared to Darius Acuff, Kingston Flemmings, Braydon Burries, Keaton Wagler, or Mikel Brown. All five of those guards could be Denver’s long term solution at point guard if they decided to move on from Jamal Murray.
It might not pan out, but this is the kind of swing the Nuggets haven’t taken in the past. They’ve been comfortable drafting in the late first round for a few years now. Their last first round pick that wasn’t before the 21st pick was Michael Porter Jr. back in 2018. If there’s an opportunity to move up and make a selection of a lottery caliber draft prospect, this would create an opportunity.
The Spurs and Thunder have had a constant flow of draft lottery talent. The Thunder even have the 12th and 17th picks in this draft. If the Nuggets want to add a young player they think could start for them long term, the best way to do so is by trading up and making a real commitment to the player rather than just drafting best player available in the twenties again.
Free Agency moves:
- Waive and Stretch Jonas Valanciunas to save $9.33 million in salary
- Let Spencer Jones, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown walk
- Re-sign Peyton Watson to a Three-Year, $75 million contract
- Sign Aaron Holiday, David Roddy, and Kevin Love to minimum contracts
Depth Chart:
- Point Guard – Duncan Robinson (token starter), Aaron Holiday, Labaron Philon, Jalen Pickett
- Shooting Guard – Peyton Watson, Dalton Knecht
- Small Forward – Franz Wagner, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy
- Power Forward – Aaron Gordon, Jarred Vanderbilt, Zeke Nnaji
- Center – Nikola Jokic, Goga Bitadze, Kevin Love (cool vet)
For what it’s worth, this projected roster puts the Nuggets at just about $3.1 million over the second apron heading into the 2026-27 season which seems pretty doable. They would almost certainly try to duck that during the year, but they could do that in a number of ways that I won’t get into here.
Personally, I would start Robinson as a spacer and have Watson or Wagner operate as a de facto point guard to open games, but the rotation would include both Holiday and Philon in this scenario. It’s a wildly different team around Jokic and Gordon though. Wildly different.
Is it better? That depends on so many different factors. The first is the defense. Can a rotation that features more big wings and forwards cover for Jokic’s lack of mobility? It should. In situations when Gordon needs to rest, the team can play a more traditional style with a point guard, Robinson, Watson, Wagner, and Jokic, which would still be a great lineup almost certainly.
There’s enough frontcourt optionality to play big, to play small, and to reinforce Jokic when needed.
I think this group is pretty good, but it still might not be great. It still relies significantly on the health of Wagner and Gordon. It also relies on the development of a rookie point guard, which is also scary.
There aren’t “great” options for Denver. There are merely choices. This is one such path they could take. It probably isn’t the right one, but it’s one way to seriously change things up around the best player in franchise history.
Will the Nuggets’ changes this offseason be so drastic? Almost certainly not. This is probably too significant of a change from one year to another.
And yet, if we’re taking Josh Kroenke at his word, there will be less complacency in the Denver Nuggets after this offseason is over.