In the NBA, the elite teams often shine right after halftime.
The Denver Nuggets have a 10-2 record to kick off the 2025-26 NBA season. It’s exactly what fans should be hoping for with Denver’s relatively easy opening schedule. The Nuggets are capitalizing on some good early situations, establishing good habits early, and making the most of the momentum they have.
But it hasn’t been perfect, especially earlier in games.
While the Nuggets have the second best Net Rating in the NBA at +13.0 per 100 possessions according to NBA.com, they haven’t been perfect in the first half. That number is lower at +10.7 in the first half alone (still a tremendous figure). Broken down by quarter is even more interesting.
The Nuggets have a +22.7 Net Rating in the first quarter which is of course fantastic. Unfortunately, they set that off with a -1.8 Net Rating in the second quarter. Nikola Jokic often plays the bulk of his first half minutes in the first quarter, so this of course makes sense. Still, Jokic’s individual second quarter Net Rating is just +1.3, meaning that Denver’s first quarter momentum is often sapped by a second quarter pullback.
But then, they play the third quarter, and things get better.
Denver Nuggets Net Rating by Quarter (rank)
- First Quarter: +22.7 Net Rating (1st in NBA)
- Second Quarter: -1.8 Net Rating (18th)
- Third Quarter: +27.4 Net Rating (1st)
- Fourth Quarter: +4.7 Net Rating (10th)
So far this season, the Nuggets have hit the opposition with haymakers to start each half. To lead in both the first and third quarter is really impressive. It also shows a level of attention to detail and intentionality that’s important. The Nuggets have clearly made it a point of emphasis to start each half by imposing their will against opposing teams, and it’s worked.
The Nuggets have won the third quarter nine times out of 12 games so far. They tied once, and they’ve only lost the third quarter twice, once by one point to the Sacramento Kings at home. The other time, they lost by nine points to the Golden State Warriors and ended up losing the game. Outside of those two instances, the Nuggets have mostly controlled the third quarter, at times dominating the opposition and flipping a game entirely.
You may be asking, what’s so important about the third quarter? Well, championship teams often excel in the third quarter, more so than any other.
Net Rating ranks for championship teams in the last decade, per NBA.com
Outside of one team (perhaps a fluky team) every NBA champion in the last decade ranked in the top six in Net Rating in the third quarter. It has the highest average rank for any individual quarter, outpacing the second quarter which barely outpaces the first quarter.
Every year is different, and every respective champion is different too. It’s notable though that most champions find a real rhythm and gain separation in the third quarter. It’s often seen as the time when teams get serious.
So, which teams rank highly in the third quarter so far in 2025-26?
Third Quarter Net Rating Ranks
- Denver Nuggets: +27.4
- Oklahoma City Thunder: +25.1
- Cleveland Cavaliers: +20.0
- Houston Rockets: +15.3
- Phoenix Suns: +12.0 (Wow)
- New York Knicks: +9.6
It’s notable that outside of the Phoenix Suns (who deserve a ton of credit for starting the year the way they have) the other top teams are universally considered the top five contenders this year. Three in the West (Denver, Oklahoma City, Houston) and two in the East (Cleveland, New York) were expected to separate from the pack. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but they’ve all found success after halftime just the same.
The numbers don’t lie. Great teams get it done when the second half begins. The Nuggets have been the best of anybody on that end of the floor so far. It’s not the be-all-end-all for championship indicators, but it highlights how and why Denver’s great start has been so encouraging.