The Colorado Rockies are the worst team in MLB. Still. Again.
For the last few weeks, their pace has seen them waffle between just barely missing the 100-loss mark and just barely hitting it for the fourth straight season.
Of course, that still amounts to a roughly 20-game improvement. And that’s not nothing.
Anyone paying any attention at all, and being honest with themselves, will tell you that this is a completely different team than the last three rudderless clubs. Even if some of the results are the same.
But the question now as we reach the midpoint of the season is how much of those improvements will continue to bear fruit in the long term. And which amount to stopgaps?
The next phase of the rebuild is going to depend a great deal on identifying who to build around and who to jettison. And despite what some may tell you, it isn’t going to be easy.
The Outfield Glut
It’s hard to remember the last time the Rockies had the “problem” of too many good players at one position. Don’t worry, they still don’t. Not yet, anyway. But the outfield is starting to look this way.
Jake McCarthy has simply been one of their best players this season. Mickey Moniak was wearing that moniker before his injury. Brenton Doyle is a two-time Gold Glover and exponentially better than any other center field defender to ever attempt Coors Field. Jordan Beck spent most of last season as one of the Rox best hitters and still has prospect pedigree. Cole Carrigg has taken MLB by storm. And Zac Veen is back on the rise in the Triple-A.
That’s all before you get to the solidly contributing Troy Johnston and Tyler Freeman, both of whom can also play outfield. That eight guys for three spots. Oh, and if TJ Rumfield is going to solidify himself at first base then you can add a ninth name to the mix in the form of the Rockies most hyped prospect; Charlie Condon.
Which of these players will be on the next good Rockies team? This decision will need to be made sooner than late. A history of run prevention at Coors Field would place a high premium on Doyle, Carrigg, and McCarthy (that’s who I would build around) but the history of trades says you take the best value you are offered. Quality pitching for any of these guys would be a win.
On The Mound
Before this season, the Rockies acquired three veteran starters to stabilize the rotation. It hasn’t exactly worked. Jose Quintana has been sidelined by injury and made only nine starts with a 5.27 ERA. Michael Lorenzen has made 17 starts to the tune of a 6.83 ERA. He “leads” MLB with the most losses (9) the most hits given up (120) and the most runs surrendered at 62. Baseball Reference has him at a -1.1 WAR.
Tomoyuki Sugano has been the odd man up. Though his numbers aren’t exactly shining they are comparatively pretty good. In 16 starts he carries a 4.80 ERA and has accrued a positive 1.1 WAR on Baseball Reference.
This makes Sugano the only veteran starter likely to get traded at the deadline. He might net a decent return given his resume in Japan and how he has handled Coors Field, but it might also be limited because of his age. Age is precisely what will keep Quintana from being moved but Lorenzen, believe it or not, is still on the cusp.
Bad as the numbers are, he has steadied the ship of late with a 3.43 ERA over his last four starts. If he can keep it going, it’s still possible the Rockies could get something for him, though admittedly not likely to be much.
Then there is the perennial question of Kyle Freeland. Historically the team has had a kind of open secret that neither they nor Freeland had any interest in a trade. He’s a Rockie from day one. He wants to be a lifetime Rockie. And in some circles it has always been assumed that he will be. Freeland is also having a rough year, limiting the number of teams who might be interested in acquiring him. Even as a lefty reliever.
But would this new front office, less moved by tradition and vibes, make a cold and calculated move? We will find out.
What About The Prospects?
Similarly, the franchise has been historically reluctant to part with young players of value. It makes a certain sense. They need to build from within more than teams who can be big players in free agency.
But the time has come to change this tradition as well. Much like the situation in the Bigs, the dynamic throughout the minors is that this club has plenty of intriguing position players… and not nearly enough pitching.
Trading established veterans for prospects can’t be the only method for addressing that. They’ll need to consider moving some of their most highly valued young hitters.
Does that mean moving on from Charlie Condon? Almost certainly not. Colorado is still in search of the anchor for future lineups. And he has the best chance of anybody to emerge as that guy. There’s also nothing doing on the Ethan Holliday front. Even if they really wanted to trade him, his current injury precludes that.
Just about everyone else, however, should be on the table. That includes former first-rounder Zac Veen, former Top 30 Pipeline Prospect in Adael Amador and all of the aforementioned outfielders. Even Cole Carrigg. Though, I wouldn’t.
The Next Phase
In a relatively short period of time, Paul DePodesta, Josh Byrnes, Warren Schaeffer and the new regime at 20th and Blake have made quite a few good moves. Almost all of the decisions they have made with the position players has worked out. McCarthy, Johnston, Willi Castro, and TJ Rumfield have all been solid contributors. The latter might well be the first basemen of the future, acquired for a reliever that did not make the Yankees roster.
They haven’t had nearly the success on the mound. And if they want to win, that will need to change.
This trade deadline will be all about finding arms and deciding what they are willing to part with to get them.