I sure hope you made that bet.
Because if you ever thought Bo Nix would win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, you’re right.
And if you think he “might” right about now, well, you’re too late.
From a betting perspective, since he was drafted until now, there hasn’t been a day you couldn’t have scooped up a Bo Nix/Rookie of the Year wager for plus odds. Whether it’s the Broncos or bettor, anyone who’s bet big on Nix will see a big return on investment.
But tomorrow morning, when you open up your betting favorite betting apps, betting on Nix won’t be quite as profitable. The value on Nix has steadily declined from the moment he nearly beat the Chiefs. Following the loss to the Ravens, bets on Nix could have been placed at +2800. After the Chiefs? Nix’s odds moved to +1420. Then once he went bananas on Justin Simmons’ Falcons, the odds shifted all the way to +388.
When the books begin to post odds this week – following yet another commanding performance by Nix, this time beating up the Raiders for the second time this season – don’t expect to find any bargains.
Right now, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year is a dead heat between Nix and Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Yesterday, both quarterbacks turned in impressive games. In a road win against the Raiders, Nix went 25-of-42 for 273 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. In a loss to the Cowboys, Daniels was 25-38 for 275 with 2 touchdowns as well; he threw a pair of interceptions, though.
At the moment, comparing the two statistically is almost a toe-may-toe-t’mah’tah kind of comparison. Take a look:
| PLAYER | COMPLETION % | PASSING YARDS | PASSING TOUCHDOWNS | INTERCEPTIONS | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 64.9% | 2,588 | 16 | 6 | 89.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | 68.4% | 2,613 | 12 | 5 | 97.6 |
At quick glance, they’re very close across the board; it really depends on which stats you value most. One thing is for sure, though: It’s a two-horse race. It’s not even worth examining how Nix or Daniels stack up compared to other rookies; the only one factoring in at all is Raiders tight end Brock Bowers – and Patrick Surtain II effectively removed him from the conversation on Sunday.
When it comes to rookie signal callers, Nix has the most 200+yard passing games – he’s got five compared to Daniels’ three. Perhaps that stat alone sets Nix apart, but only by a slight margin.
If you’re looking at which quarterback has the easiest path – meaning, which one has the easiest schedule remaining – that doesn’t provide many answers, either. Both teams have five games remaining; and if one takes the average rank of the defenses each team plays from now until the end of the season, the path is nearly identical. The Broncos’ opponents have an average defensive rank of 17th, while the Commanders will face opponents that rank an average of 17.2. The oddsmakers have both teams finishing the season somewhere between 4-1 and 3-2, finishing with 10 or 11 wins. Which quarterback leads his team to the most wins might factor in most.
Perhaps the most telling “stat” one can find that suggests Nix is well on his way to claiming the top-rookie honors is what Vegas offers weekly. For four weeks now, Nix has trended toward being the winner. Meanwhile, Daniels odds of winning have inched closer to even. At one point, this was Daniels’ honor to lose – just two weeks ago, Daniels came in at an expensive -2400. But over the past three weeks, each quarterback’s odds for winning have been on a crash course toward one another. They’ll be very close to even once the books begin to post this week.
It would be irresponsible to say that the award is now Nix’s to lose.
But, if the trend of Nix playing well and winning games continues, he’ll make a strong, strong case that he should be the winner.
Hope you made that bet.