Tonight, the Denver Nuggets begin their second round series against quite possibly their toughest remaining matchup in the Western Conference: the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Yesterday, I discussed Aaron Gordon as the X-factor and general feelings on how the series will go. There are various matchups, styles, and players on both sides that will likely lead this to be a longer series. The Timberwolves are a better team than last season, and they have a healthy Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid this time. The Nuggets, for all of the discussion about the starting unit being excellent, has a weaker bench group without someone like Bruce Brown to fill in around the perimeter. There’s mounted pressure on Denver’s top players to perform, even more than last time, and that will lead to some surprises.
With that in mind, here are three predictions for how tonight’s Game 1 will kick off the series:
1. Michael Porter Jr. will be the second leading scorer again
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who watched Denver’s first round series. Jamal Murray struggled to gain separation from Austin Reaves, dealing with a left calf strain by the end. While he powered through and had a strong Game 5 and ultimately hit the game-winning shot, it was a heavy burden for Murray to shoulder, and the Nuggets don’t want to exhaust Murray immediately in this series. He will be primarily guarded by Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (two top 10 perimeter defenders in the NBA) for all 48 minutes of this game.
Porter might see McDaniels guard him at points throughout the game, but he will mostly be guarded by Anthony Edwards. The T’Wolves superstar is a good on-ball defender, but if there’s a place where he struggles to stay locked in, it’s off-ball. Porter doesn’t need a lot of space to get a jump shot, and he’s already playing some of his best basketball in the playoffs. The 6’10” sniper averaged 22.8 points per game on 48.8% three-point shooting (8.2 attempts per game) in the first round against the Lakers. The Timberwolves will have better defenders to throw at him, but Porter’s playing with a nice level of confidence and will take advantage of any perimeter breakdowns in the Wolves’ scheme.
Nikola Jokic is likely to be the leading scorer, but expect Porter to leapfrog Murray’s scoring total in Game 1.
2. The Timberwolves will lead at halftime
Last year’s first round matchup against the Timberwolves featured the Nuggets with two double-digit leads heading into halftime of Games 1 and 2. It put the Timberwolves behind the 8-ball in that series and immediately established that the Nuggets were the better team more ready for the moment.
This year, I believe the T’Wolves will make a point to begin the series differently.
There’s something psychological about never really having a chance in Game 1, and I don’t think this Timberwolves group will be caught by surprise by how good the Nuggets are. They’re as intimately familiar with the Nuggets as any team in the NBA, and that familiarity should lead them to a first half margin. With as much to prove as the Timberwolves have heading into this series, they’re going to be amped up. They’re hungry, and I expect the defense and execution to be really, really good in the first half.
So far these playoffs, the Nuggets have the third worst Net Rating in the first half among all 16 playoff teams, only ahead of eight-seeds New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat. The Nuggets are confident that as long as they stay attached in these games, they can win the matchups in clutch time with the most dynamic clutch duo the league has (maybe ever?) seen with Jokic and Murray. That’s probably not a sustainable strategy when heading deeper into the playoffs, and this is probably the series when the Nuggets have to lock in and be better in the first half.
In Game 1 though? I expect more of the same.
3. Karl-Anthony Towns will be in foul trouble
One of the matchups that’s expected to play out immediately is Karl-Anthony Towns being the primary defender on Nikola Jokic. Towns is the starting power forward for Minnesota, but he’s a big, athletic guy and has the strength to battle with Jokic a bit. By doing that, it allows Rudy Gobert, the starting center, elite rim protector, and Defensive Player of the Year, to roam off of Aaron Gordon along the baseline and challenge more shots at the rim.
In last year’s playoffs, Jokic shot just 12-of-32 while being guarded by Towns, who statistically was the best Jokic defender of the entire playoff run. This is universally considered to be the best way to challenge the Nuggets offense, and the Timberwolves may certainly have some success with it. There are pitfalls though, namely that Towns (or backup center Naz Reid) is defending Jokic, not Gobert. That leaves 1-on-1 matchups and other plays where Gobert can’t affect a shot attempt as much to be points of vulnerability for the scheme.
The other primary pitfall is that Towns is foul prone, and I expect Jokic and the Nuggets to try and take advantage of that in Game 1. Whether it’s drawing charges, pump fakes to get Towns to leave his feet, or drawing illegal screening fouls, the Nuggets will try and get Towns into foul trouble and make it less likely for him to play physical, solid defense against Jokic.
The Nuggets and Jokic specifically are better at countering this adjustment than they were 12 months ago. Whether that bears out in Game 1 remains to be seen.