The last thing I want to do is jinx everything — so be sure that I’ll be knocking on my desk constantly throughout the writing of this piece — but I truly believe the Denver Broncos will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, sending us to our second AFC Championship game of the Peyton Manning era.
It’s a scary thought, though. Honestly, until Manning is walking off Sports Authority Field with a big smile on his face and his fist in the air, I’ll be expecting the worst. But every which way I look at this, I just don’t see how the Broncos come up short on Sunday (*knocks on wood*).
So, let’s get into it. Here are three reasons (plus a special bonus reason) why the Denver Broncos will take one step closer to the Super Bowl this weekend:
The Injuries
Alright, let’s just get it out of the way. The injuries. We all know what the Steelers are dealing with, and whether or not Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown or DeAngelo Williams end up playing, it’s a factor.
Now, the general consensus around Denver seems to be that all three of those guys will end up playing because, “There’s no way they’re missing this game!” And while I agree to some extent, it’s not that plain and simple. They ARE injured, and even if they’re on the field, that’s not going to change. The real question is whether they’ll be effective, and that looks to be very much up in the air.
Big Ben has already admitted that this is one of the worst injuries of his career, both in terms of pain and placement, and that’s a big deal. As of Wednesday, he’s yet to throw a pass in practice, and Mike Tomlin told the media on Tuesday that his biggest concern from putting Roethlisberger back in the game last weekend was that the Bengals would realize he couldn’t throw the ball more than 5 yards down field.
And if you still don’t believe that Big Ben’s injury is as serious as they’re making it out to be, think about this: With 1:43 left in the game, down by one and with the season on the line, the Steelers put Landry Jones in the game, not Ben Roethlisberger. Don’t be mistaken, the Steelers may have eventually trotted Ben back out there, but Tomlin did make the decision that Jones was a better, more-healthy option at quarterback during the Steelers’ most-important drive of the season.
He’ll play, but Roethlisberger won’t be himself. That’s about as big of an advantage as the Broncos could be gifted at this point in the year. If Brown or Williams end up on the sidelines too, even better.
The defense will do its job
Let’s take the injuries out of the equation for a second. Even at full strength, the Pittsburgh Steelers are set to face the best defense in the NFL, and that’s not debatable. You can throw out the points-per-game stats and tell me the Seahawks or Bengals are better, but I can promise you that they wouldn’t be in that position if their offenses had gifted their opponents as many turnovers as the Broncos offense did this season.
Now, as we all remember, the Denver defense did have one bad half of football, and it just so happened to come against these Pittsburgh Steelers, but it’ll be a much different situation on Sunday.
For one, the game is in Denver, where Broncos Country we’ll be as loud and disruptive as ever. One miscommunication, one false start, one delay of game and the Steelers could dig themselves into a hole they can’t get out of.
Two, while the Broncos may have had one of their worst halves of football in Pittsburgh, they had a fantastic half through the first two quarters, holding the Steelers to just 10 points. They’ve already proven they’re capable of slowing the explosive Pittsburgh offense, even when they’re at full health.
And finally, the Steelers’ offensive explosion was spurred by one man, Antonio Brown, and that won’t be the case this week. Even if he does play, Wade Phillips has to have learned a lot from that experience. The first time around, he left Chris Harris Jr. on Brown, man-to-man, all day, and I don’t care how great a cornerback you are, that’s about as close to impossible as you’ll come in the NFL; he won’t do that on Sunday.
There is a game plan for offensive success
It’s easy to call the Broncos offense bad, and at face value, you’d be correct. The reality, though, is that the Broncos offense simply isn’t consistent.
We’ve seen greatness from Denver. We’ve seen Brock Osweiler light up the Steelers in the first half, we’ve seen Peyton Manning lead Denver over the Packers and we’ve seen the running game carry the Broncos to victory. We just haven seen it for more than a few quarters at a time.
Just think, how would we be talking about this Denver offense if they had kept up their first-half pace for the full game against the Raiders and Steelers? How different would the score have looked if the Broncos didn’t have four turnovers in the first half against the Chargers in Week 17?
They’re close, real close, and if they can put it together for four straight quarters (hopefully eight more, too), then there might be something special in store with this unit.
And it all starts with the run game. The Broncos have to rely on Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson, taking pressure off Peyton Manning and draining precious seconds off the clock. As I wrote yesterday, Denver completely abandoned the run game in Pittsburgh last time around, leading to nine second-half drives that lasted no longer than 2:05; that’s not a recipe for success, especially when you’re trying to hold onto a 14-point lead.
More importantly, the Broncos have the perfect man for the job.
While a lot of questions swirled around C.J. Anderson’s performance through the first few weeks of the season, he’s been back to the old C.J. for awhile now. In fact, since the Broncos’ bye in Week 7, Anderson has averaged 6.35 yards per carry and rushed for six touchdowns. The problem is that Gary Kubiak has never given him more than 15 carries.
Get Anderson the ball and everything else will fall into place.
This piece brought to you in part by …
[adrotate banner=”16″]Bonus: Mile High Magic
Here’s the thing, and I know it doesn’t actually mean much, but there’s a magic in the air. This team seems special, and I can’t help but think the football gods are smiling down upon us.
I mean, what’s the over-under on the release date for the Manning movie if he leads this team to a Super Bowl victory? 2018?
It’s an insane story. An all-time great quarterback falls to the lowest depths of his career, the football community turns on him, rumor and conspiracy run rampant about his future, a strange report accuses him of using HGH and then he’s benched for the younger, stronger quarterback. And just as the audience is starting to believe that everything’s gone wrong for our hero, he comes back out onto the field, leads the team to a Super Bowl victory and rides off into the sunset one last time.
Tell me that wouldn’t make more money than Concussion or Draft Day!
Sometimes sports are just better than any Hollywood script, and this season seems to be shaking out that way. Let’s just hope we get all the way to the happy ending.