It’s entirely possible to misuse advanced analytics; contrary to popular belief, numbers do lie, especially when you don’t know how or where that number came from. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be incredibly useful.
When it comes to Pro Football Focus’ grading system or Football Outsiders’ DVOA, they shouldn’t be the end-all-be-all; instead, they should be a reference point in your own evaluation. For the vast majority of us, we don’t have the time or ability to sit and break down every single snap from our team’s swing tackle; that’s where PFF comes in.
When Broncos fans spent all of last Sunday wondering whether Michael Schofield was the worst left tackle on planet earth, they can validate that by checking his grade from PFF. On the other hand, when it looks like Evan Mathis is getting his lunch handed to him on every other play, but PFF has him graded as a top five guard in the NFL, it makes you take a second look at his performance.
Now, a few days removed from the debacle against Oakland, let’s see what the advanced analytics taught us about the Denver Broncos’ performance:
The offensive line was abysmal
As a whole, the Denver Broncos offense graded out at -30.3 last Sunday according to PFF, and -16.9 of that came from the offensive line alone; as you might imagine, Michael Schofield’s -7 grade (worst among all tackles in Week 14) was a major factor.
But it wasn’t just Schofield; Evan Mathis’ 5.1 grade was his worst of the season, by far. In fact, the only other time Mathis scored a negative grade was back in Week 1 (-2.7).
The entire unit was so bad on Sunday that it’s really difficult to put much blame on Brock Osweiler or Denver’s running backs. With a -12.0 team pass blocking grade and a -15.0 team run blocking grade, Denver’s skill players hardly had a chance.
This is quickly morphing from a problem to a detrimental flaw; the Broncos aren’t going anywhere, no matter who’s at quarterback, if they’re going to keep having performances like this on the front line.
And still, with all that said, if Demaryius Thomas or Vernon Davis caught one more pass, the Broncos probably come out on top.
There’s nothing special about Brock Oswieler
Brock Osweiler has been playing against a stacked deck, especially last weekend; if the offensive line was any better or if his receivers didn’t have a serious case of the “dropsies,” his numbers might look a whole lot better than they currently do.
In the end, though, he is the quarterback, and special quarterbacks find a way to make something out of nothing; just ask Cam Newton.
But so far, through four starts, Osweiler has been fairly average. Aside from a 2.1 performance against the Patriots in Week 12, Oswieler hasn’t scored higher than .3 (Sunday against the Raiders) and graded out with a -3.8 against the Chargers two weeks ago. If you want to compare that to Peyton Manning, which of course you do, Manning had three performances in which he graded out higher than Osweiler’s 2.1 — against the Lions (3.9), Packers (2.3) and Colts (4.2). Conversely, Manning’s -10.7 performance against the Chiefs is substantially worse than anything Brock has shown.
The point, though, is that Brock has yet to prove that he can carry this offense to new heights when the parts around him are struggling. At this moment, he’s not more than a game manager. And while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it does limit this unit’s ceiling.
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[adrotate banner=”10″]The Broncos linebackers are terrifying
It is nearly impossible to undersell the job the Broncos defense is doing, especially when you consider how many injuries they’ve been dealing with. And by far, the most impressive part of the whole unit is the linebacking corps, which is about as good of a group as we have ever seen.
On the outside, the only 3-4 outside linebacker playing better than Von Miller (46.3) this season is the guy who thew up five sacks on the team last weekend, Khalil Mack (68.1). And when you combine him with DeMarcus Ware (12.5) and Shaquil Barrett (12.9), it’s hard to argue that there’s a better pass-rushing unit in the league.
But while those guys get all the attention, the real credit needs to start going to Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan, who are fifth and sixth in PFF’s rankings for inside linebackers, respectively. And possibly just as impressive, when Todd Davis was forced into the starting lineup in replacement of an injured Trevathan, he went out and scored the highest grade for any Broncos player last weekend (3.4), second highest amongst all inside linebackers in Week 14.
It’s because of the athleticism and versatility of this group that the Broncos defense ranks in the top three in total defense, pass defense, pass rush and run defense, according to Pro Football Focus.