When the Denver Broncos welcome in the Cincinnati Bengals to Sports Authority Field on Monday night, they’ll be playing in a virtual playoff game. Whoever walks out with a win will likely be walking out with the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in hand, which is the equivalent of a postseason victory.
It may be Brock Osweiler versus A.J. McCarron, backup versus backup, but this Monday Night Football matchup may be the biggest game of the season thus far.
Both teams have faced adversity all year — mainly, as evidenced by the backup showdown, at the quarterback position — but heading into Week 16, both the Bengals and Broncos have a Lombardi Trophy at the forefront of their minds.
A victory won’t be easy, but it’s definitely possible. Here’s what the Denver Broncos have to do to beat the Cincinnati Bengals:
Teach A.J. McCarron what it feels like to play a real NFL defense
For a fifth-round draft pick playing in his first eight quarters of meaningful NFL football, A.J. McCarron has actually played really well — better than I expected, at least. His 70 percent completion percentage for 472 yards (8.9 yards/attempt), three touchdowns and two interceptions are on par with anything Brock Osweiler has done through two games this season.
That said, McCarron hasn’t faced anything resembling the Denver Broncos defense.
In his first two games, McCarron faced a Steelers defense that gave up 27 points in the first half against the Broncos last week 20 points to a Ryan Mallet-led Ravens offense yesterday and a 49ers defense that ranks 28th in the NFL based on yards per game.
Conversely, the Broncos rank inside the top five in nearly every defensive category.
Wade Phillips and this Denver defense needs to send the house at McCarron; force him into making mistakes in the Broncos secondary. The Bengals may have one of the league’s best offensive lines, but they’ll be facing off against the league’s top pass rush; whoever wins that matchup should win the game.
Get the run game going
The Denver Broncos have collapsed in two straight weeks, and a big part of that has to be attributed to their lack of a run game. And while C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman and the offensive line are most definitely at fault, a big part of the problem is that Gary Kubiak just hasn’t been calling run plays.
In the last two weeks, despite having the lead for the vast majority of both games, the Broncos have thrown the ball on 69 percent of their play calls; that’s not ideal.
Despite holding 12 and 14 point leads going into halftime in the last two games, the Broncos have remained a pass-first offense. If they had just emphasized the run and taken some time off the clock, then maybe they hold onto that lead for another five minutes. Maybe they win one of those games and have the No. 1 seed in hand.
Right now, the important part about running the ball is not the yardage gained; it’s the fact that they’re running the ball. As it becomes clear that not only can the Broncos not run the ball but that they’re not willing to, either, opposing defenses react and play the pass; that may be a major factor in why Brock Osweiler’s performance drops off so severely in the second half.
The Bengals are a very good defense, but if they have one weak spot, it’s in their run defense; Pro Football Focus has them ranked as the 16th best run defense in the NFL, despite being the ninth best unit overall. If the Broncos can exploit that, then maybe they can extend their offensive success through four quarters.
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[adrotate banner=”10″]No mistakes
There have been a lot of things that have tripped up the Broncos these last few weeks, but far and away, the most obvious have been the drops and turnovers. If they want to make some real noise in these final two weeks and into the playoffs, they have to cut those out entirely.
That means that these guys have to make sure their hands are turned on tonight and going forward — attention, Demaryius Thomas and Vernon Davis. And if Emmanuel Sanders is sitting back waiting for a punt, he better make sure he catches it.
But it doesn’t stop with the offensive players; the defense has to keep themselves in check, too.
Guys like Von Miller, T.J. Ward and Malik Jackson have gotten themselves in trouble throughout the season by letting their tempers get the best of them, and it’s cost them all year. One roughing the passer penalty or one late hit — even an offsides penalty — could be the difference between a three and out and a touchdown drive.
If the Denver Broncos just play a solid, sound game, they should be the better team on Monday night. But if they beat themselves, it’ll be a bad day in Broncos Country.