The Denver Nuggets are welcoming a new shooting guard to the starting lineup this year after the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The former Nugget started 184 out of a possible 196 games at the 2-guard spot in the last two years. He missed just 12 games due to injury/absence and was a stalwart contributor on the perimeter.
Now, he’s gone, and it looks like Christian Braun will replace him.
Yes, there’s a potential competition with Julian Strawther still afoot, and the Nuggets will likely be flexible with their lineups if things go wrong; however, Braun was the best candidate from the start and appears to have an inside track at the job.
For that reason, let’s break down three ways Christian Braun and the Nuggets can help each other succeed this season as starting shooting guard:
Pair Braun’s minutes with Nikola Jokic
Throughout the last decade, the best way to get any Nuggets player to play the best basketball they possibly can is to play them next to the best player in the world.
It’s like the FlexTape guy and how he papers over any chink in the armor with a slab of FlexTape.
Think of the Jokic minutes as the ultimate opportunity for Christian Braun to get up to speed as a starter. He doesn’t need to do too much with Jokic out there. Simply playing hard, moving off the ball, setting screens, and running will go a long way.
But even more than that, Braun’s stats would have an opportunity to take a leap playing with Jokic more. Here are Braun’s 2023-24 regular season shooting splits when Jokic was on the floor vs off:
- Braun stats with Jokic: 780 minutes, 51.1 2P%, 39.4 3P%, 57.7 expected shot quality, 116.6 Offensive Rating, 101.2 Defensive Rating
- Braun stats without Jokic: 875 minutes, 48.9 2P%, 37.8 3P%, 54.4 expected shot quality,
Only 47% of Braun’s minutes last year occurred with Jokic on the floor. There’s a possibility that number jumps to 80% or even 90% this season. Based on the numbers above, that seems like a solid idea.
Oh and by the way, that 101.2 Defensive Rating with Braun and Jokic on the floor wasn’t a typo. It was the third best defensive duo by Defensive Rating in the entire NBA, behind only Rudy Gobert + Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert + Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Go figure.
Push the pace in the starting unit
There are a couple things that Christian Braun brings at shooting guard at this stage that should translate immediately. The first is size, and Jokic and others will take advantage of that in a halfcourt setting by having Braun set screens, cut, and grab offensive rebounds.
The second is youthful energy and athleticism, which should lead the Nuggets to run more if possible.
Caldwell-Pope did run consistently for Denver, but his transition game wasn’t always as effective as Braun, who often got moving like a big small forward with hops to match.
The best offense often occurs when the defense isn’t ready, and Braun is learning how to take advantage early in his career. Another great thing about the Braun-Jokic pairing is that the pace of the game is simply faster. Last year, the Nuggets maintained a 101.65 Pace with those two on the floor together. Jokic on average played at a 98.05 Pace last year, and he and Jamal Murray especially need to find ways to run a bit more frequently.
Braun will certainly do that. His ability to run the floor, finish through contact, and make plays for others should make for an excellent deep post threat on Jokic Hail Mary passes.
Make improvements as a ball handler
There’s no question that this role will be a bit of a leap for Braun. He had flashes of production as a scorer and playmaker with the ball in his hands, but for much of the season, he was an off-ball threat and cutter by trade. The Nuggets need him to be more versatile than that. They need a player to take pressure off of Jamal Murray at times, someone who can run a dribble hand-off with Nikola Jokic. And if all else fails? Snake a pick and roll around the screen and hit a midrange jumper.
That last part might be going too far, but there’s no reason why Braun can’t be successful as a ball handler with addition reps in the starting unit. The Nuggets have so many threats around him that, in theory, the floor should be spaced well for actions involving him. He will have to take advantage in those situations, because what makes the Nuggets as dangerous as they are is that everyone is a threat at all times. Movers, cutters, screeners. Sometimes Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic will be the ones to screen for Christian Braun.
This year, he has to take advantage of that.
Braun’s eFG% on shots with zero dribbles last season was a strong 59.1%. One dribble? 58.2%. Two dribbles? 43.2%. Three to six dribbles? 41.8%. The efficiency dropped off a steep incline when Braun had to press beyond a straight line drive, and it can’t be that steep again this year.
It’s pretty simple. If opposing teams are going to dare Christian Braun to beat them as a scorer or playmaker off the bounce, he has to be ready for that challenge. He wasn’t ready for it last year, which makes a jump into the starting lineup a pretty scary move. Still, I believe playing with the starters will help him. He’s a player who rises to challenges presented to him, and this is simply another obstacle to team success. If Braun can crack this code, the Nuggets will be very, very dangerous once again.