Are we there yet?
*A version of this story appears in the July issue of Mile High Sports Magazine. Subscribe here!
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The Denver Nuggets are in a very peculiar position in relation to the rest of the NBA.
They clearly possess one of the most hyper-talented young rosters in all of professional basketball, have improved their win total from 30 to 46 in just three years, and have been just one singular game away from the playoffs in back-to back-seasons. You can say – without any shred of doubt – there has been massive progression and growth throughout every facet of professional basketball in the Mile High City. That’s not an opinion; it’s a quantifiable fact. With that being said, Denver’s goals are still a ways in front of them as they chase the past successes of their predecessors.
Their goals? To make the playoffs for the first time since 2012-13, when that particular Nuggets team was able to accumulate a franchise-best 57 wins before injuries stole their opportunity to defeat the earliest iteration of the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.
Making the playoffs is not going to be an easy task. While many fans like to think that the NBA is irritatingly predictable, the reality is that there is no league in professional sports as volatile and chaotic as the NBA.
Even with players like Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Chris Paul, DeMarcus Cousins, Kawhi Leonard, and many other massively important players in the Western Conference going down with serious injuries in the 2017-18 season, it still took 47 wins for the Minnesota Timberwolves to make the playoffs as the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference. Denver dealt with their own injuries throughout the year – which will be covered more in depth later on – but to expect the Nuggets to waltz to the playoffs next year just by getting a healthy Paul Millsap back would be absurdly overconfident.
That isn’t the only worry Denver has. They could also lose Devin Harris, Will Barton and Torrey Craig – all who played important roles – in free agency this year and not have any money to bring in their replacements. There is a very real chance that the Nuggets could lose all three of those players and still be about $9 million into the luxury tax. That is a terrifying proposition for a young team desperate to get back to playoff basketball.
With that being said, there are players on the Nuggets roster who have yet to get a real chance at proving themselves – players who could help fill in the gaps. Monte Morris is preparing for the most important summer of his basketball life; Juancho Hernangomez may be called upon to play the wing if needed; Malik Beasley may be asked to step up into the role of energy guard off the bench, essentially the role Barton currently occupies. Nobody has any solidified expectations for Morris, Hernangomez or Beasley, but they may be thrust into the rotation before they are fully ready and they will have to learn on the fly.
There are a multitude of variables that are possible and that could drastically change that equation that deciphers how well the Nuggets can perform next season, but, even amidst all of the chaos, the one constant has been the positivity of Josh Kroenke.
Kroenke, the vice chairman of Kroenke Sports and Entertainment and controlling owner of the Nuggets, has no delusions of where the Nuggets franchise should be at this juncture, and he has been as vocally transparent as possible about what his expectations are for the 2018-19 season.
After two heart-breaking years of watching the postseason from home –failing to qualify for the playoffs both times by just one single game, it is now time to take the next step forward as a rebuilt franchise and return to the playoffs.
“Playoffs are a firm goal of ours next year – and making noise in those playoffs once we get there,” Kroenke told media at the Nuggets unveiling of their complete rebrand.
The Nuggets are no longer rebuilding. They’re no longer (too) young. Instead, they’re on the clock. It’s playoffs or bust in Denver. And everyone agrees.
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VITALS
- Last Postseason Appearance: 2012-13, lost in the first round to Golden State in six games
- Best-Ever Finish: NBA Western Conference Finals (1985, 2009)
- Last Season’s Results: 46-36, finished ninth in Western Conference
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ONE MAN’S OPINION
“The Nuggets have some great young talent. That said, they tend to fall in love – head over heels in love – with said talent. If this particular group doesn’t get it done and get into the postseason, the window has already begun to close. The Nuggets need to value the ‘right here and right now’ as much or more as ‘potential.’ This is the year to find out if all the potential has materialized. The Nuggets brass has favored Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris over the likes of Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving and Eric Bledsoe. Why? Potential. This season is when the rubber meets the road. If they’re right, they’re brilliant. If the ‘potential’ doesn’t yield a run into the playoffs, then changes must be made.” – Doug Ottewill, Editor-in-Chief Mile High Sports Magazine
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WHAT THE NUGGETS HAVE
Nikola Jokic – The Nuggets have one of the 25-best players in the entirety of the National Basketball Association in Jokic – and he is still getting better every single day. In a league where talent overcomes all issues, finding star-level talent is the most difficult thing to do in the NBA. Ironically, superior talent, is the most fundamentally necessary component to not just compete in the playoffs, but getting there in general. Without Jokic, Denver would be lightyears behind the rest of their division.
Effortless and elite offense – The one facet of Denver Nuggets basketball that will not require much attention or reconfiguration will be the offense. Even when the Nuggets were at their worst, their offense still was able to produce – regardless of opponent or situation. Denver slotted in as the sixth-best offense in the NBA with an offensive rating of 109.6 – just 2.7 points behind the league-leading Golden State Warriors.
Health – The Nuggets were ravaged by injuries throughout the 2017-18 NBA season, losing Paul Millsap for 44 games, Gary Harris for 15 games, Mason Plumlee and Wilson Chandler for eight games, and Nikola Jokic for seven games. If healthy – which should finally be the case – the Nuggets “core-four” should be able to do what they were supposed to do. Last year, the four-man lineup featuring Murray, Harris, Millsap, and Jokic had an offensive rating of 116 and a defensive rating of just 103.3, for a net rating of +12.7, which is an absurd mark. Simply put, when the Nuggets are healthy, they’re formidable.
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WHAT THE NUGGETS NEED
Defense – Let’s not mince words. Over the past three seasons, the Nuggets’ defense made papier-mâché look strong as steel. There was virtually no perimeter containment of any kind, which made defending the rim nearly impossible for any big on the floor; opposing ball handlers were getting to the rim with a full head of steam as they penetrated into the paint to breakdown the defense. Nothing Denver did on defense worked, mostly because any defense that operates with Jokic as the final line of defense is going to have glaring weaknesses. Last year, the Nuggets were ranked 26th in defensive rating. In 2016-17, they ranked 29th in defensive rating. In 2015-16, they ranked 24th in defensive rating. To have any hope of competing for a playoff spot, the Nuggets desperately need to find a way to be more effective on the defensive end of the floor and they need to figure it out quickly.
Consistency – If there is one lesson that each and every young player on the Nuggets roster learned over the past two years, it is to take every game seriously and not take days off. As everyone has seen, letting up for just a few plays can be the difference between making the playoffs or watching from home.
Experience – The Nuggets rely heavily on four players who are still 23-years-old or younger. Every year of experience could pay exponential dividends, at least that’s the hope at Pepsi Center.
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FOOD FOR THOUGHT…
Heading into what could be a make or break year for many people that are a part of the Nuggets’ enclave – coaches and players alike –heaps of optimism still surround the team, starting from the fanbase and building up all the way up to Kroenke himself. When Kroenke was asked about his thoughts on where the franchise is currently at, optimism exuded from him.
“We are sitting here with the narrative that we just missed out, but I am also very confident in this group because I can sit here and tell you guys that, without an injury or two, I think we are firmly the three-seed in the West and we’ve won 50 games,” Kroenke boldly claimed. “That is with the group that we currently have without any internal improvement or outside additions. We are very confident in the group we have.”
Even with Kroenke’s excitement being palpable, the road to the playoffs will be a long and arduous process, but one that needs to be completed this upcoming season. Kroenke and the Nuggets front office have done a wonderful job of allowing this rebuild to get to “full fruition” – but the time for maturation is now.
Welcome to the Nuggets’ most intense season since they traded Carmelo Anthony all those years ago. From here on out, it is “playoffs or bust” for the Denver Nuggets.
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