I don’t envy Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich.
For the first time in nearly 10 years, the Rockies are on the other side of the All-Star break with a chance to make the playoffs. But having lost 15 of their last 21 games heading into Monday’s series opener with the Padres, the pressure is mounting for Bridich to make a move to bolster his roster.
Two of his main rivals in the National League, Chicago and Washington, have already made moves. Others will be coming fast. The pressure is mounting, and it won’t let up as long as the Rockies are in the hunt.
With the MLB trade deadline now less than two weeks away, Bridich may be damned no matter if he do or if he don’t.
At 54-41 the Rockies are 11 games out of first place in the National League West. The Dodgers, it seems won’t lose another game this season. They will, of course, but to suppose that they will relinquish their grip on the division is wishful thinking.
The Dodgers have won the division four years running (and six of the last nine), and this may be their best team in a decade. In the past four years, the Dodgers have been in first place at the trade deadline three times. The only outlier was last year, when they were without Clayton Kershaw from June 27 until Sept. 9. Kershaw is 14-2 with a 2.18 ERA this year.
The Rockies and Dodgers still have seven games head-to-head this season, so there’s a chance to directly make up ground, but an 11-game gap is monstrous. For reference: At the trade deadline in 2015, the Rockies sat in dead last place in the West and were only 14.0 games back of Los Angeles.
To win the West, Colorado will very likely have have to make major moves to bolster their bullpen, add a frontline starter and possibly add some punch to the lineup. A move or two of that nature would very likely cost them multiple top prospects, including Brendan Rodgers and/or Ryan McMahon and any number of young pitching prospects. Shipping off that kind of talent would be a bold move by Bridich, but in Colorado a chance at the playoffs doesn’t come every year.
Even if Bridich can negotiate a major move (and ownership agrees to pay for it), the Rockies will still be in a fight for the West – one the Dodgers have been in more or less every season for the past nine years. It will be the first time in the ring for Bridich and all but a handful of guys in the Rockies clubhouse. (Only Carlos Gonzalez has played in the postseason in purple pinstripes, and that was in his second year in the big leagues.)
At this point, a Wild Card berth seems far more realistic for a team who – if we’re being honest with ourselves – wasn’t supposed to be this good. But they are. And that has hopes a mile high in the Mile High City.
With only a 5.5-game lead over the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot, things are anything but guaranteed.
Yes, the Cubs. The defending World Champion Cubs. The Cubs, who last week traded for a top-of-the-rotation starter last week. The Cubs, who watched that same starter throw seven innings of three-hit shutout ball on Sunday. The Cubs, who aren’t going anywhere.
Bridich may not have to make such bold moves as outlined earlier to stay in the Wild Card race, but the end result is fraught with its own pitfalls.
Remember how exciting that do-or-die, play-in game was back in 2007? It was exciting because Colorado was on the winning end. Trevor Hoffman, I can assure you, doesn’t think of that game with the same excitement and enthusiasm you do.
In securing a Wild Card berth, the Rockies guarantee themselves only a chance to play in a single-elimination game against what will very likely be a team with a starting pitching advantage.
Right now that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks, with a pair of 2017 All-Star starters on the roster – one who has won a Cy Young Award. The other teams in the mix are no slouches. The Cubs have the 2015 Cy Young Award winner. The Braves have a two-time All-Star who is 4-1 lifetime against the Rockies.
Is it worth mortgaging any part of what looks to be a promising future (Colorado’s farm system is ranked No. 8 in baseball) for a single game?
We’ve already seen this year that Colorado is on the right path with both its player and pitcher development. It may be very tempting to make a move when the playoffs are oh so close, but doing so could cost Bridich valuable assets that have the potential to deliver sustained success for years to come.
Not making a move could be even worse for Bridich. And as of Monday, the Rockies weren’t even generating a blip on the trade radar.
If he believes that his club is the one that dominated the National League through the first two and a half months of the season, and not the one that slipped more than 10 games out of the division over a three-week span, he could simply hold pat.
Bridich could decide that Jon Gray really can match up with the likes of Kershaw or Zack Greinke or Jake Arrieta. He could steadfastly believe that Chad Bettis will come back from cancer and be the steady, reliable force he was in 2016. He could trust that Mike Dunn will be the as good in August and September as he was in April. And that Adam Ottavino will rediscover that devastating slider in time to devastate postseason opponents. Heck, he could even have faith that Gonzalez will rebound from the worst year of his career to salvage the home stretch.
Should all of those things happen, Bridich can be damned sure that his club will be in the pennant hunt. Should half of them occur, they’ll still be in a good spot to play for the Wild Card. Should one or none of those beliefs hold true, he’d be second-guessed until April 2018 (and probably beyond).
Would fans ever forgive Bridich if he holds pat at this year’s deadline and fails to make the playoffs over the next several years?
Baseball is a fickle game. As quickly as the Rockies have improved, they could regress. An injury here. A lost free agent there. A bad signing. A player who holds on too long. Any of them can derail a season.
Delivering playoff baseball in Denver is no easy task. When the playoffs are as close as they are right now, every move (or lack thereof) will be magnified.
I don’t envy Jeff Bridich. Not one bit.