After a large amount of build-up toward the end of the first round, the Denver Nuggets decided to trade out of Tuesday’s festivities anyway.
While on the clock with the 26th overall pick, the Denver Nuggets executed a trade with the San Antonio Spurs, who moved up to 26th overall in exchange for the 35th pick and two future second rounders. The exact terms and protections on those second rounders are unknown, but the Spurs moved up to select Tarris Reed while the Nuggets move down a few spots.
It’s unclear as to whether the Nuggets were hoping for a specific player to drop to them at 26th overall. In order from 21st to 25th, Karim Lopez, Labaron Philon, Zuby Ejiofor, Cameron Carr, and Sergio De Larrea were all taken right before the Nuggets’ selection. Philon and Carr were the highest grade players among those five in the pre-draft process, but there’s no guarantee the Nuggets would’ve selected any of them.
Instead, Denver turns one late first round pick into three second round picks. Rather than selecting a player in the late first round that they weren’t sure about, they moved down and gained a bit of draft capital back for their trouble.
With the three second round picks they added along with Denver’s 49th selection they already had, that brings Denver’s total number of second rounders available to them to trade to…four total. Denver’s next available second rounder becomes available at the start of the new league year, a 2033 second round pick in seven years.
So, the Nuggets were desperate to add a bit of draft capital, and on the surface, that’s a good thing.
In reality, don’t expect the Nuggets to use those picks to select a bunch of young players.
The Nuggets are currently in a financial pickle. With Peyton Watson expected to command a significant pay increase, the Nuggets are up against the second apron once again. They’ve made it clear that they won’t go into the second apron and are utilizing that $222 million second tax apron line as a hard cap this offseason.
Denver can gain a bit of flexibility by waiving backup center Jonas Valanciunas, and that move is expected to occur some time during the next two weeks unless the Nuggets can find a trade option by July 8th. Unfortunately, that move doesn’t save Denver enough money to bring back Watson and fill out a roster full of minimum contracts (or Spencer Jones/Tim Hardaway Jr. pay raises).
So, expect the Nuggets to shed more salary. They were rumored to be exploring trade options for Zeke Nnaji and the 26th overall pick. Now that Denver has multiple second rounders instead of a first round pick, moving Nnaji in a salary dump is a touch more palatable. That being said, even getting rid of Nnaji for no salary in return, waiving Valanciunas, and signing all minimum contracts puts the Nuggets above the second apron threshold anyway.
Projected Multi-Year Salary Cap Sheet for the Denver Nuggets assuming Denver trades Nnaji and waive-and-stretches Valanciunas.
The Nuggets could cut some corners here by drafting a second round pick and paying them below the veteran minimum contract value. They don’t have to carry a full roster, though it got them in trouble last year from a health perspective. And yet, the above salary cap projection places the Nuggets significantly over the second tax apron by nearly $16.9 million.
If the Nuggets are expecting to pay Peyton Watson and retain his services (the above projection includes an estimated four years, $93 million extension for Watson, if the Nuggets were to get lucky) then they almost assuredly have to trade one of their larger contracts.
Cam Johnson’s contract accounts for over $27.5 million due to $4.5 million in unlikely incentives Denver still has to factor in against the second apron. Aaron Gordon also has $1.6 million in unlikely incentives, meaning that Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and Johnson account for over $170 million against the aprons among just those four.
Now, add in Christian Braun and Peyton Watson each earning $20+ million, and the Nuggets are suddenly out of breathing room.
All of this to say, Denver’s second rounders tomorrow might be used to draft a helpful young player or two. They also might simply be throw-ins for a future trade to help reduce Denver’s luxury tax bill and incentive other teams to help Denver save money.
If the Nuggets do end up making selections at 35th overall, Isaiah Evans and Maleek Thomas are two guards at the top of most draft boards that the Nuggets have been tied to by national reporters. Both would be helpful players who could play in a pinch but wouldn’t be expected to do anything significant in the near future.
Other options at 35: Henri Veesaar, Baba Miller, Richie Saunders, Ryan Conwell, Trevon Brazile, or some other sleeper option that isn’t on my radar.
At 49th overall: your guess is probably as good as mine. Ugonna Onyenso, Izaiyah Nelson, and Tyler Nickel are names to remember.
Will the Nuggets make both selections at 35 and 49? Unlikely. If they do, we will cover them here, along with any two-way contracts the Nuggets negotiate with undrafted free agents after the draft.