The Denver Broncos received some bad news yesterday, and it’s all thanks to Sam Bradford and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Eagles gave QB Sam Bradford a two-year, $36 million deal, including $26 million guaranteed, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 1, 2016
Now, at first glance, you may be asking yourself, “What does that have to do with the Broncos?” And the answer is: A LOT.
Here’s a blind look at what Bradford and Brock Osweiler did on a per-game basis in 2015:
PLAYER A: 65% completion; 266.1 yards per game; 7 yards per attempt; 1.4 touchdowns; 1 interceptions; 86.4 quarterback rating
PLAYER B: 61.8% completion; 245.9 yards per game; 7.2 yards per attempt; 1.4 touchdowns; .9 interceptions; 86.4 quarterback rating
Now, Player A is Bradford and Player B is Osweiler, but does it really make a difference? Essentially, they were the same quarterback, except Bradford is three years older and doesn’t have nearly the same upside as Osweiler.
So, when Osweiler and his agent are in a conference room with John Elway these next few weeks, why wouldn’t they start the bidding at $18 million per year? Maybe he only has seven career starts to his name, but if the Eagles are willing to pay Bradford that type of dough, then somebody is going to be willing to do the same with Osweiler.
Not to mention, now that Bradford is off the open market, that leaves Osweiler as the clear-cut top free agent this offseason. The only other quarterback that can even come close is Ryan Fitzpatrick, but his age, 33, is likely to drive his price down.
I think that the hope has been, both from fans and the Broncos, that Denver could get Osweiler to sign a short term deal for around $11-13 million a year, but that seems out of the question at this point. Unless he’s willing to take a significant home-town discount, Bradford’s contract should be considered the minimum for No. 17.
And now, the question becomes: Is he worth it?
At an average of $18 million a year, Osweiler would be tied with Tony Romo as the 14th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, above the likes of Alex Smith, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton. Now, if Osweiler pans out, if he develops into the quarterback we saw in the New England Patriots game, then it’s actually a great deal for the Broncos.
But if he doesn’t … then maybe that money would have been better spent on an offensive lineman or Malik Jackson or Danny Trevathan or a multitude of other options.
We already know this Broncos team can win a championship and a whole heck of a lot of games with subpar to mediocre quarterback play. It may be unconventional, but maybe it makes sense for this franchise to skimp on quarterback.
Either way, we should find out sooner than later.