Six games into the Broncos season we have a pretty good idea of what deficiencies this roster has. With that — and the Broncos’ upcoming free agents for 2021 — in mind, here’s a look at the positions on offense that the Broncos are most likely to target in the upcoming NFL draft.
Offensive Tackle
Garett Bolles has been a revelation this season, going from one of the league’s worst offensive tackles to one of the league’s best in one off-season, but that comes with both good and bad ramifications. On the positive end, he’s finally living up to his first-round draft status, and the Broncos appear to have found a potential star and at a premier position. On the negative end, Bolles’ contract expires this off-season, he will be due for a contract worth at least $15 million on average per season, and if you’re the Broncos do you have any confidence that Bolles attacks 2021 with the same level of motivation now that tens of millions of dollars are no longer at stake?
Also, at the other tackle position, the Broncos have Ja’Wuan James, who is a total enigma at this point.
That leaves the Broncos with three options to address Bolles. They could re-sign him to a big extension, which would save them a nice chunk of change in the long run if Bolles continues to replicate the success he’s seen this season, but the downside is if Bolles reverts back to his old self it could quickly become one of the league’s worst contracts.
They could franchise tag Bolles, which would keep him around and avoid the long-term commitment, but if he puts together another great season and 2020 is no longer an outlier, he’ll cost a lot more money than he would if Denver were to sign him long-term this off-season. Plus, giving Bolles the franchise tag would make it so the Broncos couldn’t use that tag on Simmons if they so desired.
Lastly, they could let Bolles walk, which would save them money but would also leave a gaping hole at left tackle.
If the Broncos decide to roll either of those two latter options, tackle will be on their board in the 2021 NFL Draft. They’ll likely be out of range of the generationally-talented Penei Sewell, but tackles Dillon Radunz and Samuel Cosmi have the talent to be worth a top 10-15 pick most years.
Quarterback
Quarterback isn’t a top draft need for the Broncos, yet, but that could quickly change depending on how Drew Lock performs over the next 10 weeks. Lock has had promising moments throughout his incredibly-short career so far, but he’s only had one full game in which he looked like he could be a competitive quarterback in the AFC West for the next decade.
Right now, the Broncos easily have the worst quarterback situation in the division thanks to Derek Carr’s incredible resurgance. It’s hard to compete in a division when you have the second-best quarterback, and as long as Mahomes is around, having the second quarterback in the division will be the best-case scenario for the Broncos. They can’t afford to settle for someone like Lock, who currently appears to have a lower floor and a lower ceiling than Justin Herbert. They certainly can’t afford to settle for Lock, if he continues to also play like he has a lower floor and ceiling than Derek Carr.
So, if the Broncos are looking at quarterbacks in the draft, who should they target?
Trevor Lawrence would be ideal of course, but he will be long gone before the Broncos pick. Justin Fields is the next-best-known prospect and would be the best quarterback prospect in most drafts, but Trey Lance would be the ideal replacement for Drew Lock. Lance is an absurd athlete who dominated the FCS world in his lone season starting, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 42 total touchdowns (28 through the air, 14 on the ground), without throwing an interception.
The only knocks on Lance are that he only started one season and his level of competition, but neither of those concerns have prevented college quarterbacks from having success in the NFL in recent years. Carson Wentz was able to quickly make the leap, and while he has deteriorated as of late, it seems doubtful that regression has anything to do with him playing at an FCS school. You could argue Trubisky failed because of his lack of college experience, but in that case it appears more likely that his lack of college experience just made it harder for scouts to evaluate him, and led them to believe there was more room for development than there truly was. You could still use that as knock against Lance as a prospect, but again, it’s the only knock he has.
Lance looks like a rawer, more athletic version of Deshaun Watson, and if that’s staring the Broncos in the face when their first-round pick comes up, and they’re still feeling unsure about Lock, they have to take Lance.
Running Back
Running back is a more off-the-radar potential draft need for the Broncos but with Phillip Lindsay, a restricted free agent this season, and the underperforming Melvin Gordon a free-agent after 2021, running back is a position the Broncos could look to target on Day two of the draft.
Re-signing Lindsay would give the Broncos’ one of the league’s most expensive backfields for 2021, something they might not be able to afford after paying Garett Bolles and Justin Simmons. Also, this year’s draft is loaded with running back talent.
Players like Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Chubba Hubbard and Kenneth Gainwell are all expected to enter the draft next year. As good as Lindsay is, both Etienne and Harris could likely be day one upgrades on the Colorado Kid.