The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks play their fourth and final matchup of the regular season tonight, immediately after facing off against each other on Sunday.
Both teams are very familiar with each other. The Nuggets lucked out on Sunday in not having to face either of Kyrie Irving or Luka Doncic due to injury, and Denver earned a hard-fought victory. They might not get so lucky this time around with Irving elevated to questionable on the latest injury report.
This game is important. If the Nuggets win, they clinch the season series over the Mavericks 3-1 and earn a head-to-head tiebreaker. That could have important ramifications for playoff positioning, something the Nuggets should consider with regard to the 32-6 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Let’s delve back into the Dallas Mavericks matchup:
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
Dallas: Spencer Dinwiddie, Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, PJ Washington, Dereck Lively II
Key Bench Players
Denver: Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, DeAndre Jordan
Dallas: Jaden Hardy, Spencer Dinwiddie, Quentin Grimes, Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Maxi Kleber, Daniel Gafford
Notable Injuries
Denver: Nikola Jokic – PROBABLE, Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, Julian Strawther – PROBABLE, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Dallas: Kyrie Irving – QUESTIONABLE, Luka Doncic – OUT, Dante Exum – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Keeping the pressure on
In the NBA, it’s very difficult to win two regular season games in a row against an opponent that’s similarly talented to you. If the Nuggets were facing the Charlotte Hornets, then sure, they might be alright. The Nuggets are the fourth seed in the Western Conference and the Mavericks are fifth. This was always expected to be a split.
Of course, that’s with relatively similar health. The Mavericks lost without Doncic and Irving. They will probably get back Irving tonight. Can Denver still find a way to get it done? The odds say no.
Also, the Nuggets are 2-6 on the front end of back-to-backs this season compared to 8-0 on the second night. They play Dallas tonight and Houston tomorrow night in Denver. Evidence points toward Denver losing in Dallas and winning in Denver (for whatever reason).
Can they fight through that and earn an important tiebreaker? We will see. Having Aaron Gordon as an additional frontcourt option is such a big deal. Expect him to come off the bench for another 20 minutes tonight as the Nuggets ramp him up slowly.
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Mavericks wing defenders
The the first three matchups between these teams, Jamal Murray has struggled badly to score, averaging just 16.3 points per game on a 44.3 True Shooting %. Part of that is the length, athleticism, and physicality of Mavericks defenders, namely Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes.
According to NBA.com, Marshall has defended Murray the fourth most of any player so far this season and held him to just six points in over 10 minutes of direct coverage time. Murray has attempted more shots against Grimes but hasn’t made anything, shooting 0-of-7 with the athletic perimeter defender guarding Murray. Against Klay Thompson, what should be an easier matchup at this point, Murray’s just 1-of-5 from the field.
This is a bad matchup for the Nuggets guard, who’s also dealing with knee inflammation. Murray’s probable for tonight. Can he be effective as a scorer against Mavericks perimeter defenders? We will see.
Number of the Day – 4
That’s the number of times the Nuggets and Mavericks have each played a two-game set against an opponent so far this season. The Nuggets did it three times. The Mavericks did it once.
Every single time, the matchups were split 1-1.
The numbers say the Nuggets lose tonight.
Nugget who should have a good game: Russell Westbrook
If Here are Westbrook’s last five games and his outputs in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage:
- 9 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 36.4 FG%
- 26 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 50.0 FG%
- 19 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, 50.0 FG%
- 25 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, 47.1 FG%
- 21 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, 58.8 FG%
It’s very difficult to ignore the trends here. Westbrook’s production and consistency are incredible at this stage of the season. After struggling to find a true rhythm early on, he has fully integrated himself into what the Nuggets are doing and become a tremendous resource for Nikola Jokic throughout the game.
Westbrook will probably have a good game. Almost every one of his games lately is good.