The Denver Nuggets face the Dallas Mavericks on road in each of their next two games: today (Sunday) and Tuesday. They lucked out on the timing of injuries to Mavericks stars with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both out for today’s contest. After the Nuggets and Mavericks split the first two matchups in Denver, there’s pressure on the Nuggets to capitalize on this clear opportunity. The Nuggets are 22-15. The Mavericks are 22-16. You can do the math on how valuable these two matchups are in a Western Conference where jockeying for playoff seeding position will be incredibly important at the end of the year.
Let’s delve into the Dallas Mavericks matchup:
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
Dallas: Spencer Dinwiddie, Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, PJ Washington, Dereck Lively II
Key Bench Players
Denver: Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, AARON GORDON, DeAndre Jordan
Dallas: Jaden Hardy, Quentin Grimes, Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Maxi Kleber, Daniel Gafford
Notable Injuries
Denver: Nikola Jokic – PROBABLE, Jamal Murray – QUESTIONABLE, Aaron Gordon – QUESTIONABLE, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Dallas: Luka Doncic – OUT, Kyrie Irving – OUT, Dante Exum – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Reinforcements IN and OUT
Nikola Jokic returned to the floor on Friday night against the Brooklyn Nets and put up a “ho hum” 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists kind of night. He’s probable for today’s game, and I expect him to play.
In addition, Aaron Gordon is considered questionable for today’s matchup, an upgrade over his last designation of “doubtful” on Friday. I doubt they upgrade him unless they think he’s good to go. The Nuggets will of course use caution, but if Gordon’s ready to go, expect him to get minutes today, even if he comes off the bench like he did in his initial return from injury.
Unfortunately, the Nuggets can’t have it all. Jamal Murray is dealing with knee inflammation and is also questionable. He exited Friday’s game at halftime with knee soreness, and the Nuggets will of course be cautious with him too. I’d lean “not playing” for Murray, but they will see how he feels during pregame warmups. Russell Westbrook’s presence allows the Nuggets to be more cautious here with Murray.
Important Matchup – Nikola Jokic vs Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford
With both Doncic and Irving out, the Mavericks will be hyper focused on trying to slow down Jokic in this contest. The Mavericks know they won’t win this game with offense, so playing their best defensive game will be paramount.
Jokic looked great in his return to the court on Friday, but he also did say “I almost died” about his minutes during the first half of the game. How will he handle a better defensive team with better defensive personnel in the Mavericks? Lively is bigger and stronger than his rookie season and can battle with Jokic physically. Gafford is an elite rim protector who catches Jokic off guard every now and then. Can Jokic fight through those matchups and be incredible again? Probably, but it’s a pressure point.
On the other end, limiting as many easy baskets as possible will be important. The Mavericks centers almost always shoot efficiently against Jokic and the Nuggets (A combined 24 points and 1 turnover on 15 shooting possessions). It’s a difficult ask when Jokic has to account for Doncic and Irving. Can he pay more attention to those centers when it’s Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall?
Number of the Day – 26
That’s the number of points Naji Marshall scored on the Nuggets in the NBA Cup qualifier that Dallas won in Denver. Marshall was tremendous, shooting 11-of-15 from the field and getting downhill on drives consistently. Watching back the highlights on his performance, Denver’s defense was legitimately horrible. If they relax at all today, thinking that it’s going to be an easy matchup because two superstars aren’t on the floor, think again. Guys like Naji Marshall can go for 26. Obviously, Klay Thompson can go for a crooked number. PJ Washington’s put up 30+ with the Mavericks before.
It’s pretty easy to put up 20 points in the NBA if the defense doesn’t respect you. For the Nuggets, they have to respect this Mavericks team.
Nugget who should have a good game: Michael Porter Jr.
If Murray is out, it’s going to be the Jokic and MPJ show as much as it was the Jokic and Westbrook show last game. The Mavericks know how important Porter is and will do what they can to slow him down. They have decent personnel to do that too.
But the chemistry between Jokic and Porter has taken a leap this year. Even on an “off night” last game, Jokic still assisted on about six of Porter’s seven buckets. The Nuggets will look to feed MPJ in this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets his first 30-point game of the year today.