The Nuggets have lost three in a row. Will they make it four, or can the defense have anything to say about that?
Let’s delve into the final Indiana Pacers matchup:
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, Myles Turner
Key Bench Players
Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther (?), Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan
Indiana: TJ McConnell, Benedict Mathurin, Jarace Walker, Thomas Bryant
Notable Injuries
Denver: Jamal Murray – QUESTIONABLE, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Indiana: Pascal Siakam – OUT, Ben Shepphard – DOUBTFUL, Isaiah Jackson – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Can they avoid beating themselves?
The Nuggets had 26 turnovers on Friday night vs the Golden State Warriors, which is flat out unacceptable for any serious basketball team. The Nuggets couldn’t get out of their own way, and the mistakes made weren’t remotely close to “trying to do the right thing but it went wrong.” Denver simply dribbled the ball out of bounds, or tossed it into the 5th row, or committed undisciplined charges, or got the ball stripped with poor ball security, or threw a lazy pass to the other team.
When the Nuggets log at least 20 turnovers, their record is still pretty good at 9-5. Turnovers don’t define who the Nuggets are as a basketball team, but they were an indication on Friday night of simply not knowing what to do or how to attack the defense properly. The Nuggets must approach today with a better game plan.
Important Matchup – Tyrese Haliburton vs Nuggets perimeter defense
The last time the Nuggets faced the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton was extremely efficient with 19 points and 15 assists compared to just one turnover. Denver’s offense was so good that it didn’t really matter, but it would be nice if the Nuggets played good enough defense that they could disrupt what the Pacers were trying to accomplish. In that first matchup, Tyrese Haliburton had THIRTY TWO potential assists compared to just 15 actual assists, according to the NBA. Christian Braun and Peyton Watson will have to be engaged on the ball, while Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon will have to restrict passing lanes as well as they can.
Frankly I don’t expect that to happen. The Nuggets will have to rely on Pacers role players missing shots instead.
Number of the Day – Catch-and-Shoot three-pointers
Checking in on the season long three-point shooting splits on catch-and-shoot opportunities is a fascinating way to evaluate the rotation, sorted by total attempts:
- Michael Porter Jr. – 141/334 (42.2%)
- Nikola Jokic – 101/221 (45.7%)
- Julian Strawther – 77/212 (36.3%)
- Russell Westbrook – 68/201 (33.8%)
- Jamal Murray – 69/174 (39.7%)
- Christian Braun – 65/169 (38.5%)
- Peyton Watson – 43/120 (35.8%)
- Aaron Gordon – 50/107 (46.7%)
- Jalen Pickett – 23/67 (34.3%)
- Hunter Tyson – 22/66 (33.3%)
- Zeke Nnaji – 17/51 (33.3%)
Porter is, of course, the most important spacer on the team. Jokic has taken the mantle of second most important spacer this year though. He’s had good and bad years as a shooter before, but Jokic has been more locked in as a spacer than ever before.
It’s interesting that Strawther and Westbrook rank third and fourth in attempts. Strawther hasn’t played in over a month, and Westbrook isn’t supposed to be spacing the floor as often as he’s had to. The Nuggets need to find more opportunities to Murray and Gordon specifically.
But this is also about Christian Braun, who just needs to let it fly from three. So much of his hesitation comes from not wanting to take away an opportunity from Jokic and others, but Denver’s going to have games when Braun is dared to shoot over and over again in the playoffs. If he’s unwilling to let threes fly, he’s allowing the defense to win by not guarding him and guarding Jokic more closely.
Nugget who should have a good game: Michael Porter Jr.
The Nuggets tall small forward seems to fair well in this matchup because the wings for Indiana are undersized. Without Pascal Siakam out there (he’s out tonight) the forward room gets even less defensive, and the Pacers are more likely to play smaller. Yes, the Pacers will get into him a bit, but he should be able to counter by attacking the rim, the offensive glass, and in transition shooting over the opposition.