This is already the third matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. Full transparency, I don’t like the Clippers style of play. It’s grating on the eyes for a number of reasons.
That the Nuggets have lost two closely contested games that came down to free throw shooting certainly hasn’t helped. We will see if the Nuggets can turn that around a bit in this matchup. They’ve had plenty of time to prepare and get healthy. The status of Jamal Murray is still up in the air, but the rest of the team should be good to go.
Let’s delve into the Los Angeles Clippers matchup…again:
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Los Angeles: James Harden, Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Nic Batum, Ivica Zubac
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, DeAndre Jordan
Los Angeles: Kevin Porter Jr., Kris Dunn, Jordan Miller, Mo Bamba, maybe Bones? Maybe?
Notable Injuries
Denver: Jamal Murray – QUESTIONABLE, Dario Saric – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Los Angeles: Kawhi Leonard – OUT, Derrick Jones Jr. – OUT, Terrance Mann – OUT, PJ Tucker – ABSENT
Key for the Nuggets – Can they win after several days off?
The Nuggets have played five games after having two or days off so far this season, including the opener. Their record in those moments? An inconceivable 0-5. For whatever reason, the Nuggets get out of rhythm in those moments and have yet to win. Denver’s record with just one day off? 8-5. On the second night of a back-to-back? Denver’s record is 4-0. You know, because of masochism.
It really puts into perspective why this season feels worse for Denver than it actually is, because it would be easier to write off a 12-10 record if the Nuggets were 0-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. Nope. They’re 4-0 there and have lost all the easier matchups instead. The NBA has also built in more rest for teams playing on primetime, so the Nuggets will never be on national TV on the second night of a back-to-back, which might be…too…bad…this year?
Anyway, it’s on the Nuggets to get serious here. One of their losses on two or more days of rest was to these Clippers. Denver gave up 126 points and didn’t really do anything well defensively despite three days to prepare. Now, the Nuggets have had four days. We will see if the results change this time around.
Important Matchup – Christian Braun guarding either/both of James Harden and Norman Powell
So far this season, the Nuggets have allowed Harden to go for 39 points and Powell to go for 37 points against them in separate games. Both are talented scorers, draw fouls in crafty ways, and can make contested shots with the best of them. The real issue for Denver is that both have impacted each game. Combined, Harden and Powell went for 60 points and 16 assists in the first game and 67 points and 12 assists in the second game.
Needless to say, that can’t happen in this matchup if the Nuggets want to be successful. Braun is Denver’s leading perimeter defender in the starting group, and this is a great test for him in his third season. The two crafty vets got the best of the Nuggets in the first two games. Has Braun learned enough in his minutes to slow down one or both guys? Denver can let one of Harden or Powell go off for a crooked number, but it can’t happen for both guys. Can Braun make an impact?
Number of the Day – 30.5
That’s the number of three-pointers the Nuggets attempt every game, last place in the NBA by a considerable margin.
Three-point attempts per game in the 2024-25 NBA season.
Now, it’s important to note that the win percentage of a team isn’t correlated with the number of three-point attempts a team takes. It’s also important to note that offensive rating and three-point attempts have little correlation either.
Still, it never hurts to be able to space the floor, and the Nuggets have struggled to do that of late. Michael Malone shared Media Day that he wanted Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter to each average one more three-pointer per game than the year before. Well, Jokic has gone from 2.9 to 4.4 threes per game (+1.5). Murray has gone from 5.8 to 5.8 threes per game (0.0). Porter has gone from 6.8 to 6.1 threes per game (-0.7). So, Denver’s other two leading scorers haven’t been able to elevate their volume to compensate for the minutes of lower volume shooters.
Again, Denver ranks seventh in offensive rating. It’s not like they’re a bad offense. They’re just a tier below elite, and elite shotmaking is probably the reason why.
Nugget who should have a good game: Aaron Gordon
I think this is the game Aaron Gordon fully gets back on track. Derrick Jones Jr. is out, and the Clippers are already low on physical forwards. There’s only so many things Nicolas Batum can do, and defending a physical Aaron Gordon for 48 minutes could be a struggle. If Jokic can pull Ivica Zubac away from the rim, Gordon should feast underneath, grab offensive rebounds, draw fouls, and just be a beast like normal.