Hey look! It’s the Nikola Jokic vs Giannis Antetokounmpo matchup on national television! Surely this is like the 12th time these two have faced off on national TV, the top two international stars and the two best players in the NBA for the last five years or so!
Let’s delve into the Milwaukee Bucks matchup:
Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Milwaukee: Damian Lillard, Taurean Prince, Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lope
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan
Milwaukee: Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., Andre Jackson Jr., Jericho Sims
Notable Injuries
Denver: Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, Peyton Watson – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo – PROBABLE, Bobby Portis – OUT, Pat Connaughton – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Protect the Perimeter
It’s been a surprising development around Giannis this season, but the Bucks have created one of the more lethal supporting casts from a shooting perspective. Yes, everyone knows Damian Lillard, and everyone knows Brook Lopez. They’re shooting 38.0% on 9.2 three-point attempts and 36.8% on 5.1 three-point attempts respectively. That doesn’t necessarily do their shooting justice though. Taurean Prince is currently shooting 45.8% from three on the year, and AJ Green, a little known bench shooter, is at 42.0% on 5.2 attempts per game. Gary Trent Jr. is at 41.9% on 5.3 attempts per game.
Denver can’t over help on Giannis at the rim. He’s going to get a lot of opportunities in transition and in the flow of the offense as the Nuggets try and compensate for the Bucks’ shooting. The most important thing to remember about Milwaukee though: the Bucks have a 22-8 record when they hit at least 14 threes. They’re 19-5 when they shoot 40% or better from the perimeter, and they’re 29-10 when they shoot 35% or better.
That team goes as their perimeter shooting goes, not as Giannis scores. When he puts up 30+ points, they’re only 15-13 as a team.
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Damian Lillard
It’s always fun to watch Murray match up with Lillard. Ever since the Nuggets traded Jusuf Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Murray-Lillard battles have taken second place to the Jokic-Nurkic battles despite being just as interesting. In his career, Murray has a 17-10 record against Lillard in his career, regular season and playoffs. Though Lillard has the better points averages dating back to when Murray was a rookie, the battles themselves have been good, as have the moments.
Lillard has had a strong season for the Blazers, a bounce back year of sorts. Murray is playing the best basketball of his season. Both of these defenses are fairly vulnerable to scoring guards (Milwaukee 13th defensively, Denver 20th). Let’s see whether one of Murray or Lillard can generate some serious scoring to aid Jokic and Giannis on the interior.
Number of the Day – 124.4
Since entering the NBA, Nikola Jokic has achieved 124.4 win shares in his NBA career. During that stretch, he leads the entire NBA by a significant margin. Jokic’s closest competition is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has accumulated 108.6 total win shares during the same span.
Since Giannis won MVP in 2018-19, Nuggets fans have dreamed of having their own version of Giannis on the roster in Jokic. When the Serbian superstar started winning MVPs, Nuggets fans began to consider that Jokic might actually be better than Giannis and have an even better career in the long term.
Now, after another two MVPs and a championship of his own, Jokic has surpassed Giannis in the minds of many, which is extremely notable given that Giannis has a two-year head start on Jokic. Take win shares for example. Jokic’s career mark of 124.4 ranks 48th on the all-time NBA career leaderboard. He hasn’t even finished his 10th season. Assuming Jokic accumulates another 40 win shares or so for the rest of his career (an insane undersell based on his current trajectory) he would rank 22nd in NBA history, just above Bill Russell and Hakeem Olajuwon on the all-time rankings.
If Jokic played for another seven years beyond this season and accumulated the same number of win shares he accrued in his first seven years, he would be placed top 10 all-time just behind Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki. That’s without factoring in the final 24 games of this season as well.
Nugget who should have a good game: Aaron Gordon
I wanted to say Michael Porter Jr. again because I think his matchup is good, but that’s if he’s shooting threes and taking advantage of Milwaukee’s high volume of above the break threes given up.
So, let’s go with Aaron Gordon. He’s obviously got a tough matchup against Giannis, but Gordon often rises to the occasion for these matchups. He’s also a guy the Bucks are going to dare to make threes, which will be hilarious if he shoots 4-of-7 again like it seems like he’s done with relative frequency of late. Gordon’s playing well, and I think that continues tonight.