After a long, long, long regular season, it’s officially time for playoff basketball.
The Denver Nuggets are facing the Los Angeles Clippers in a matchup between fourth seed and fifth seed. The Nuggets have homecourt, and against a team as good as the Clippers, that could mean a lot in the coming days.
In order to take advantage of homecourt though, it starts with winning Game 1. The Nuggets have a lot of doubters out there right now (rightfully so) but a strong Game 1 performance would cause some people to think twice about some of the narratives that are out there.
Let’s talk basketball.
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Los Angeles: James Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac
Key Bench Players
Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan
Los Angeles: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Amir Coffey, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum, Ben Simmons
Notable Injuries
Denver: DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Los Angeles: None
Key for the Nuggets – Communicate and Execute
“I think the locker room right now is in a really healthy place,” David Adelman shared at practice yesterday. “When you go through a lot, sometimes…you go through complications. Sometimes, you come out the other side a better person, and as a team, that can happen too.”
There’s a sentiment that the Nuggets didn’t handle their business correctly in the regular season and understand that. They’re trying to make up for it by improving on the details. Communication and accountability are buzzwords that are being used consistently, but it only matters if the Nuggets are willing to do those things when the pressure rises.
Will the Nuggets talk to each other when needed? Will they continue to strive for that effort in what has felt like a lost season? Time will tell if Denver’s willing to go the extra mile and wants to fight for each other to keep this season going for as long as possible.
Important Matchup – Michael Porter Jr. vs Norman Powell
Nuggets fans are worried about covering Norman Powell on the perimeter with their starting group. Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. will likely spend a lot of time on Powell. Since March 1st when the Clippers really started to take off, Powell averaged just 14.4 points per game while Ivica Zubac averaged 19.9 points per game himself. If the Nuggets allow him to get going like his pre March 1st self (24.2 points per game) this series will be a major challenge for Denver.
On the other side, Clippers fans are worried about who guards Michael Porter Jr., most likely Powell or James Harden. Like Powell, Porter wasn’t a super efficient shooter, but he has a major size advantage over Clippers guards. If he can stay on the floor and force the Clippers to adjust to the Nuggets without giving up too much defensively, that gives Denver a major advantage in this matchup.
Number of the Day – 9.4
+9.4 is the LA Clippers Net Rating with the current starting lineup they are about to deploy. Harden, Powell, Dunn, Leonard, and Zubac have a +9.4 Net Rating in 584 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. That group really excelled defensively despite featuring both Harden and Powell.
By comparison, the Nuggets starting group: Murray, Braun, Porter, Gordon, and Jokic had a +12.8 Net Rating in 895 possessions. That lineup was great offensively for Denver, and if these two lineups meet, it will be important for the Nuggets to put pressure on LA by making enough shots to force an adjustment.
Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic
Ivica Zubac has had a fantastic year defensively. There’s a difference between guarding regular season actions and guarding postseason Nikola Jokic though. With as crafty and versatile as Jokic is, I expect him to use a variety of different actions to create space as a scorer for himself while working to get teammates involved.
Defensively, this will be as fresh as Jokic has been almost all season. If the Nuggets are serious about making a championship run, watch Jokic on defense. He will tell you all there is to know about how engaged the Nuggets are defensively with the kinds of plays he makes.
Can Denver make it happen in Game 1? If they do, it will be because of Jokic.