The Denver Nuggets are 9-6 after an impressive win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night. Nikola Jokic is playing great basketball. Michael Porter Jr. is leveling up consistently. Russell Westbrook appears more and more comfortable in his role in Denver. Things are looking good.
Those good vibes will be put to the test tonight. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the New York Knicks are coming to town. The Knicks are 9-7 and have underperformed a little bit, but they rank second in offensive rating behind only the 17-1 Cleveland Cavaliers. This will be a challenge for Denver.
Let’s delve into the New York Knicks matchup:
Denver Nuggets vs New York Knicks
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Trey Alexander, Julian Strawther, Dario Saric or DeAndre Jordan
New York: Cameron Payne, Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet, Jericho Sims
Notable Injuries
Denver: Aaron Gordon – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
New York: Karl-Anthony Towns – QUESTIONABLE, Miles McBride – QUESTIONABLE, Mitchell Robinson – OUT Precious Achiuwa – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Slowing down the Knicks offense
Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns is officially a dynamic duo. Both players average over 25 points per game and maintain usage rates of at least 29%. The formula for the Knicks is pretty simple: the starters play a ton, and one of Brunson or Towns remains on the floor at all times. Around them: Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby play the perfect cast of complementary options. The Knicks as a whole rank third in 2-point %, third in 3-point %, and first in free throw %. They can shoot the rock.
Can the Nuggets slow them down? Guarding a Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop is really difficult. The Nuggets will likely have to blitz Brunson and rotate over to cover Towns on the move. That’s a recipe for disaster if Towns can hit his shots and draw some fouls.
Of course, Towns is also questionable tonight with a left calf contusion. That would change the calculus a lot.
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. vs Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby
It’s unclear how the Knicks will decide to cover the Nuggets outside of Towns guarding Jokic (if Towns plays). The rest of the matchups are flexible. Most likely to me is Bridges or Josh Hart covering Murray while OG Anunoby guards Porter. In years past, the Toronto Raptors would deploy Anunoby specifically on Murray, but they might be better off having him guard Porter and try to slow down Denver’s second best scorer at the moment.
Murray’s ability to get downhill and make plays consistently is already under close consideration. The Knicks will challenge him with physicality, deft hands, and good shot contests most of the night. They will also force him to guard on the other end. That’s a matchup the Nuggets need to hold up consistently if they want to win this game.
Porter will have his hands full with Anunoby on both ends. Can the Nuggets forward bring his consistent offense to the party and win that matchup? Anunoby also averages 17.8 points per game and shoots 40% from three-point range, so it’s a relatively even matchup.
Number of the Day – 18.4%
That’s the percentage of plays the Nuggets are currently running in transition, according to Cleaning the Glass. That leads the NBA and is a far cry from last year’s rates. Denver ran on 14.9% of their possessions last year, an average level.
The bigger difference is the success rate. Last year, the Nuggets averaged 119.6 points per 100 possessions in transition, the worst efficiency in the NBA. This year, they’re up to 124.1, which ranks 12th. The combination of improved efficiency and improved volume in transition also means fewer halfcourt possessions. Denver’s operating well when they get a quick shot.
Part of this is the Russell Westbrook factor. Part of it is Peyton Watson and Michael Porter Jr. growing. Most of it is Christian Braun, whose effectiveness in transition cannot go understated. He’s 12th in the NBA in transition possessions per game and is at 1.24 points per possession so far. That’s where his growth and has shown up most in my opinion.
Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic
Whether Towns plays or not, Jokic is going to produce. He’s put up historic numbers to begin the season, and while there are strong defensive wings to contend with on the Knicks that will clog up the paint and passing lanes, Jokic is still in a really good place for the Nuggets. I expect him to give Denver every chance they can get offensively. Defensively, I don’t know how he’s going to slow down the Brunson-Towns pick and roll, but I’m sure he will figure out something.
Nikola Jokic has 364 points, 167 rebounds, and 135 assists in his first 12 games.
It’s the third time since the 1975-76 season that any player has had 360+ points, 160+ rebounds, and 130+ assists in any 12-game span.
The other two? Nikola Jokic during the 2023 playoffs. pic.twitter.com/FYjVzXISXO
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) November 24, 2024