“All these guys need a break. Not just from basketball, from each other, from me.”
Denver Nuggets head coach David Adelman, despite the closer win than expected last night, is understanding of the team’s general malaise heading into the All-Star break.
“I’m not concerned,” Adelman stated plainly. “We had some guys that were exhausted…I give [the Memphis Grizzlies] credit. We were up in pick and roll, and they had a lot of random guys make threes…they had some guys step up.”
“My concern is with the turnovers more than that.”
Despite falling to 24th in defensive rating on the season, Adelman has been adamant about Denver’s state of things. He’s not happy with the defense by any stretch, but he’s clearly understanding. Aaron Gordon’s injury status has played a large part, and lately, not having Peyton Watson or Spencer Jones has been a significant factor in Denver’s inability to get stops.
Does that excuse the reality that is Denver’s struggles? No. The Nuggets are right next to the Chicago Bulls in defensive rankings, and the Bulls recently blew up the majority of their roster in trades. At this time last season, the 2024-25 Nuggets ranked 16th in defensive rating. This year? They’re 24th, a truly horrendous number that causes many around the NBA to (rightfully) question whether the Nuggets have what it takes to ramp things up in the playoffs.
For the first 12 games of the season, the Nuggets ranked 2nd in defensive rating, right between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons. Here are the corresponding full season offensive rating ranks of the teams they faced during that stretch:
- Golden State Warriors – 15th
- Phoenix Suns – 14th
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 8th
- New Orleans Pelicans – 25th
- Portland Trail Blazers – 22nd
- Sacramento Kings – 28th
- Miami Heat – 17th
- Warriors – 15th
- Indiana Pacers – 30th
- Kings – 28th
- Los Angeles Clippers – 12th
- Timberwolves – 8th
In summary, the Nuggets faced one top ten offense twice (one of those games without Anthony Edwards). They also had a fully healthy rotation to start the year, AND they benefitted from pretty severe shooting luck at the same time. Through those 12 games, the Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot just 32.5% on three-pointers which ranked second in the NBA. Since then, opponents are shooting a far more normal 36.3% which ranks 16th. Those margins matter, especially when opponents are also shooting a high percentage at the rim against Denver’s poor rim protection.
Overall, the numbers are concerning. The health is still more concerning though. Denver’s 116.9 defensive rating has been impacted by not having Aaron Gordon.
The Denver Nuggets defense trends poorly without Aaron Gordon on the floor. Data used via Cleaning the Glass.
The Nuggets starting power forward helps Denver achieve an impressive 108.9 defensive rating when he’s on the floor. Part of that is because he was on the floor for the stretch of games above. Part of it is because he genuinely impacts Denver’s defense, covering up Denver’s weaknesses in a variety of ways.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets allow significantly fewer made shots, fewer defensive rebounds, and fewer free throws when Gordon is on the floor. They also force the same turnover rate. The Nuggets know they can deploy Gordon in a variety of ways and he can solve problems consistently. The injuries are an issue though, and that the Nuggets are so dependent on Gordon is a significant concern when they’ve been so hapless without him.
It isn’t all bad though. For all the concerns about defense, the Nuggets are an incredible offensive team.
Among all players to play in 30 or more games this season, the Nuggets have the top four in “Team Offensive Rating when X player is on the floor” in Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, and Peyton Watson. The Nuggets have been an absolute machine on that end of the floor for much of year which can be taken for granted at times. Tim Hardaway Jr.’s minutes also rank 11th in this configuration, and if the games played barometer were dropped to 20+ games, then Gordon would be right behind Watson at fifth in the entire NBA.
In addition, the Nuggets have posted the best offensive rating in the NBA against teams that rank Top 10 in defensive rating on Cleaning the Glass. Not only are the Nuggets the best offense overall, but also the best offense against the best defenses in the league, an extremely encouraging figure. Lineups that feature Jokic and Murray this season yield a 130.3 offensive rating on average Both are representing the All-Star game this year, and both clearly deserve it. The Nuggets held up as well as could be expected during Jokic’s month long absence due to a knee injury, and Murray was the biggest reason why with a 61.5% True Shooting on 30% Usage and a 3.33 Assist-to-Turnover Ratio during that month.
The Nuggets have held up better offensively than ever in the minutes that Jokic isn’t playing. The defense remains an issue with or without Jokic on the floor, and that’s something that Nuggets will have to figure out post All-Star.
The Nuggets will likely be in a better place after All-Star than they were going in. Denver’s played 22 games since January 1st, tied for the second highest number in the NBA. They did much of that without Jokic and have had several other absences to navigate. They’re understandably tired, but the road doesn’t get much easier. 21 of Denver’s remaining 27 games are against teams in the playoffs or play-in at the current moment. They’ve only got four games against the Eastern Conference remaining, but they’re against the New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers. Not exactly easy matchups.
Denver’s also going to have plenty of opportunities to test that top offense against the best defenses in the NBA. 13 of Denver’s final 27 games are against teams with a Top 10 defensive rating.
In summary, things get more difficult going forward. Not less, despite the added rest.
Assuming Spencer Jones signs a full-time contract before games begin again, Denver should have enough players to not be as stressed out about the rotation as they have been lately. Gordon and Watson are expected to return some time in March, and that will provide another boost. Denver has just five more games in February, so if they can start things off well, it’s possible Gordon and Watson provide a boost right when the Nuggets need the reinforcements.
Denver’s currently evaluating buyout candidates. Perhaps they add a 15th player (and/or a new two-way contract after Spencer Jones’ converted deal) to soak up additional minutes. Expanding the rotation probably isn’t in the cards though. With just 27 games remaining, the Nuggets must redevelop their chemistry rather than simply focus on health and energy concerns. It’s go-time for the Nuggets, and in a competitive West, the standings really start to matter in the coming weeks.
Right now, the Nuggets are third in the West at 35-20. The San Antonio Spurs have been streaking and have separated themselves in the race for second place behind OKC. Behind Denver, the Houston Rockets (33-20), Minnesota Timberwolves (34-22), Los Angeles Lakers (32-21), and Phoenix Suns (35-23) are all within striking distance. The Nuggets can’t mess around post All-Star break if they want to earn a Top 3 seed, one of the important thresholds for a title run based on all of NBA history.
Can the Nuggets stay atop that group? Can their defense improve against a tough schedule? Can the Nuggets manage to get healthier at the same time? It’s going to be a challenge, like threading a needle or hitting a very small target from distance.
The Nuggets understand the assignment. Whether they can execute remains to be seen.