Where in the world will the Denver Broncos be picking in the 2018 NFL draft? The league would like you to believe that it presents a mystery more complex than “The Da Vinci Code”. After scouting scenarios and math equations that would allegedly put Einstein to shame, we’ve got it figured out… kind of.
Here’s where the Broncos could finish, based on how Week 17’s results and scenarios might break down. Let’s start with the easy stuff: Denver can finish no better than fourth in draft position, even after a ‘best-case scenario’ situation in week 17. In the Broncos ‘worst-case scenario’, they would slip to 10th.
Denver’s year-to-date “SOS” or ‘strength of schedule,’ currently sits at .483, according to Tankathon.com. That’s lower than most teams in the league. In fact, it’s tied for third-lowest in the first twenty teams lined up to pick currently, and that’s a very good thing.
This lines up for Denver to win just about every relevant tiebreaker (except for one — we’ll talk about that in a second) when it comes to draft order, as the NFL’s ruling for tie-breakers state that “the team with the lower strength of schedule (their opponents compiled fewer wins) is granted the earlier pick in round one.”
Confused yet? Now to the scenarios.
To find themselves picking 4th in next year’s NFL draft, the 5-10 Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, while the 4-11 Houston Texans must beat the 3-12 Indianapolis Colts, and the 4-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to beat the 11-4 New Orleans Saints — so betting on the wildly inconsistent Bucs seems like a longshot.
Basically, if you’re a Broncos fan, you’re rooting for Tampa Bay and Houston this weekend. A Broncos loss would land them somewhere between fourth and sixth in the first round. Because the Broncos currently have one more victory than either Houston or Tampa, the Broncos can only move ahead of either if they finish with five wins, as well. Thanks to that strength of schedule, though, the Broncos will move ahead of either or both teams if they finish with the same win total.
Still following?
A Broncos win, however, alters things drastically. In a scenario where Denver beats Kansas City on New Year’s Eve at home, the Broncos no longer have a path where they will find themselves with a top-five selection. Denver would pick sixth at best, and could fall as far as 10th.
So let’s make it easier: The New York Jets, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers are all teams that you — as a Broncos fan — want to win. They all sit at 5-10 on the season and 6-10 finishes for all three would mean Denver will finish with the seventh spot or better, even in the result that the Broncos do win, because of tiebreakers.
However, in a situation where the Jets, Bears and 49ers all were to lose, while the Broncos win, Denver’s sixth win would — most likely — drop them to the ninth selection, as all three teams slot themselves ahead of Denver with five wins.
But remember that one team mentioned earlier as the exception when it comes to Denver winning the tiebreakers? That team is 6-9 Cincinnati, one of the two teams with a lower SOS win percentage at .467.
If Denver and Cincinnati were to tie at 6-10 for the ninth spot or better, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker as of now, which would slot the Bengals at ninth and the Broncos at 10th, assuming the Jets, Bears and 49ers as mentioned above all lose on Sunday as well. Any wins by the three previously mentioned, move them to six wins and slot themselves behind both Cincinnati and Denver, moving both teams up a spot.
Based on ‘SOS,’ reported by Tankathon.com, Oakland is the only other team closest to Denver in percentage at .508 that has six wins. It’s unlikely their percentage is to reach Denver’s in one week, but that math can’t be calculated (because the results are unknown) until after the week has completed. This also can be said for Denver catching Cincinnati in SOS and finishing in-front of them, even if they both finish with six wins, though this is unexpected.
There are scenarios where the Broncos finish in the top-five of the NFL draft, however it starts with a loss in week 17 to Chiefs. There’s also a scenario where Denver doesn’t get a top-five selection, even after a loss, because if the two teams ahead of Denver — the Buccaneers and Texans — both lose, they would remain slotted ahead of Denver just as the order is now.
Confused yet? On the bright side, you won’t be by Monday.