For the past three seasons, the Denver Nuggets have relied on the offensive dominance of Nikola Jokic for success. This won’t change anytime in the near future. Jokic will be the engine by which the Denver Nuggets operate. He is the hub that everything runs through.
However, in this last playoff run, the Nuggets had a different leading scorer for the first time in any real segment of a season in quite a while. In the playoffs, Jokic posted an excellent point per game numbers of 24.4. While utterly dominant, and hardly a step down from the 25.1 he posted in the previous postseason, Jokic was leapfrogged by the surging Jamal Murray, who put up 26.5 points per game in the playoffs.
This surge came as a shock to the league of course. He outpaced his regular-season numbers by exactly 8 points per game, (though his per 36 numbers only increased by 3.5 points).
While the question of this offensive sustainability for Murray remains, it’s at least a possibility that Jokic will no longer pace Denver in scoring per game. Though it is worth noting that Jokic matched Murray’s points per 36 numbers in the most recent playoffs.
When asking (mostly) fans of the Nuggets on Twitter, they voted overwhelmingly in favor of Murray.
Who is going to lead the Nuggets in scoring this season?
— Cade Walker (@CadeCWalker) December 7, 2020
While Murray is the most likely player that could see a spike in scoring, he isn’t the only one with more than a remote chance to lead the Nuggets in points. While he hasn’t exactly secured even a starting spot quite yet, Michael Porter Jr has proven that he can be one of the most capable scorers in the league, and perhaps the very most on the Denver Nuggets.
Named to the All-NBA Bubble team this last season, over the last stretch of 8 games with ample opportunity, Porter scored 22 points per game for Denver. Admittedly, this is a small sample size, but, he still scored 20.7 points per 36 minutes over the course of the full season. Noting that this was on much lower usage than the two stars in Jokic and Murray, it’s not a difficult stretch of the imagination that Porter could come within reach of surpassing Jokic and Murray in scoring with the right opportunity. Neither Jokic nor Murray eclipsed 20 points per game in the last regular season.
Porter was statistically the most efficient scorer on the Denver Nuggets last season, posting a True Shooting percentage of 61.7%, which barely edged past the impressive mark of Jokic at 60.5%. Again, Jokic’s number is on higher volume. Still, Porter’s scoring ability is undeniable and with another year of maturity, it’s not impossible for him to take a sizable leap.
Add this to the fact that most of Porter’s minutes last season came off of the bench, and not as much next to Jokic. With a potential (likely) starting role, Porter will benefit from the playmaking of the Serbian big man. On/Off splits from Basketball-Reference show that the team effective Field Goal percentage jumps by about 20 points when Jokic is on the court, compared to when he is off, (.542 to .522 respectively). With more anticipated minutes next to Jokic in the frontcourt, a more efficient Porter, Jr is a likely outcome. Noting that Porter is a high-end cutter and a borderline elite shooter, his game suits Nikola’s unorthodox style.
The question for Porter revolves around his usage. While Murray and Jokic both were north of 25% in usage rating, Porter sat just behind at 22.3. Again, this was mostly with bench units. As a starter, he would likely be a third option, which could potentially sink his usage by a small amount. Perhaps a minutes stagger is in order here, but he will be playing more minutes with the starters either way.
Ultimately, the possibility for three players to lead the Nuggets in scoring is a luxury that is fairly rare for a team. With all three of Murray, Jokic, and Porter being great players in terms of scoring efficiency, expect a very high octane offense from the Denver Nuggets.