In seasons past, the Denver Nuggets have consistently deployed a staggered bench lineup that features Jamal Murray with the second unit.
Since the 2018-19 season when both Murray and Nikola Jokic really started to gain chemistry, the Nuggets have mostly played them together; however, Murray has also been the starter most likely to stagger given his scoring skill set and malleable nature on and off the ball next to other guards.
Over the last seven regular seasons, here are the Nuggets lineup numbers in Murray lineups with and without Nikola Jokic, according to PBP Stats:
- Jamal Murray + Nikola Jokic: 9,399 minutes, +10.04 Net Rating
- Nikola Jokic, no Jamal Murray: 8,036 minutes, +7.01 Net Rating
- Jamal Murray, no Nikola Jokic: 3,072 minutes, -4.04 Net Rating
- No Nikola Jokic, no Jamal Murray: 6,313 minutes, -5.91 Net Rating
Denver’s offense survives without Jokic in the Murray minutes (111.3 Offensive Rating), but the defense has left a lot to be desired (115.3 Defensive Rating). Murray has contributed to both, helped Denver’s offense remain functional in those times. It’s not like when Jokic is out there, but it’s certainly better than when other starters have staggered consistently or no starter staggers at all.
This season, the Nuggets are in a difficult spot with the guard rotation for their bench unit. The starters are fine, set in stone and likely to be one of the most dominant units in the NBA. The bench is another story, with several options that could work individually but no singular lineup that makes sense at the outset.
For example, if the Nuggets choose to go with an all-bench lineup of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, and Jonas Valanciunas, they will probably struggle against most teams that can apply ball pressure. That group struggled in the first game, and the trio of guards struggled in the second game when faced with guards able to press and double. Denver can deal with that pressure better in a regular season environment. They could also add in Jalen Pickett as an additional ball handler to remove some pressure from other guards.
Still, it’s something to consider. With the starting unit a likely dominant force, anything that mitigates crooked bench unit runs could help.
Enter Jamal Murray, who already has experience with bench units, breaking pressure, and working with a dominant paint center.
Murray arrived at Media Day after putting in the work this summer. He had a great training camp and looked good in the first two preseason games the Nuggets played. Though Murray has often started seasons slow, that may not be the case this year. He’s attacking the year in a way he hasn’t for a long time, and the Nuggets might be the beneficiaries.
Building a lineup around Jamal Murray and Jonas Valanciunas is relatively easy. There are a couple of ways the Nuggets can go with the surrounding wings. Ideally they can shoot AND defend while offering a layer of athleticism and secondary creation. That’s not reasonable for a bench unit though, so applying different skill sets makes the most sense. Peyton Watson will be the defense and rim protection on most nights, and he’s working on secondary ball handling. Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the shooter. Julian Strawther can shoot and be a secondary creator when he has the right matchup.
Bruce Brown’s minutes are a little more challenging. He should be the Nuggets point guard next to Jokic in the minutes that Murray doesn’t play. It gives the Nuggets a defensive minded option that’s already comfortable playing on and off the ball. If he fills that role, can he also play extensive minutes with the second unit? Only if the Nuggets want to play him 24+ minutes off the bench. At that point, it also cuts a guard out of the rotation, and the Nuggets don’t want that to start the year if they can help it.
So, the Nuggets remove Brown from the primary bench minutes and play him almost exclusively with Jokic instead. It’s a tough rotation to develop rhythm, but if the Nuggets are going to play 10 players, someone’s rotation is going to suffer initially, and it makes sense that it’s Brown if he also gets tp play next to Jokic a ton.
Here’s the final product of the rotation:
It’s no easy task to build an early season rotation like this. There will be injuries, surprisingly poor fits between different players’ skill sets, and other matchup related factors that go into individual games. Overall though, I think this makes sense. The starters minutes are relatively easy, especially with the malleability of Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, and Aaron Gordon around different skill sets.
What matters most is how the Nuggets can survive with second units, and putting some thought behind the different combinations is incredibly important. The one thought I keep coming back to: Murray’s opportunity to stabilize the situation. Everyone knows what he can do with Jokic, but now that the Nuggets have a better mix of bench options (along with a pick and roll partner in Valanciunas) it’s a great opportunity for Murray to solidify things. Denver doesn’t need the moon. They just need stability.
Murray can provide that, especially if the level he’s shown so far is the level he can bring into November and December.