It’s finally here. The 2025-26 NBA Season begins this week.
On Tuesday, the NBA season tips off with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder vs Kevin Durant and the new look Houston Rockets. The rest of the league begins the next day…except for the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors, who will start the season on Thursday on ESPN in a prime time game.
After the opener, the Nuggets will settle back into a comfortable routine. They’ve started their long journey during training camp and preseason, and the goal will be to continue that work throughout the months. The regular season isn’t just about surviving this year. It’s about finding new and improved ways to thrive.
There are many reasons to believe the Nuggets will be improved. There are also reasons to be pessimistic, though I think the Nuggets will work through those possible pitfalls along the way.
Let’s discuss what the Nuggets are facing this regular season and what to expect from night to night:
The Foundation
Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon represent Denver’s core now that Michael Porter Jr. is gone. The Nuggets identity is tied to these three, and if training camp and preseason are any indication, there’s a sense of refreshment and reinvigoration around the trio. All three carried such a heavy burden last year, Jokic more so than any single player in the NBA. It took a full offseason, but the Nuggets should be ready to roll with their main guys. Jokic, if he’s anything like the last three to five years, will be the best player in basketball once again.
Murray’s energy and engagement is a major positive. There’s another level he can consistently reach in the regular season if he can hit the ground running. This may or may not be the year it happens, but I’m predicting he puts together his best season yet.
Gordon is a wild card. Entering his 12th season, the Nuggets know what to expect from Gordon when healthy. If he can stay on the floor, the Nuggets have another high-impact, versatile veteran to help from night to night. If he can’t, the Nuggets suddenly have a void at power forward that won’t be easily filled.
New Faces
Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are all expected to play significant roles for Denver in the regular season (and the playoffs). Johnson will be a consistent starter, while Valanciunas, Brown, and Hardaway will come off the bench. Their additions are expected to add to Denver’s support of the current group, and if the preseason is any indication, the Nuggets will be getting a talent boost.
Expecting new players to immediately flow perfectly with what the Nuggets already do is a bridge too far though. There will be a growing period, at least 20 games before the Nuggets fully understand and appreciate what they have. During that time, the Nuggets will probably lose a couple games they shouldn’t. It’s all part of the process though. Denver needs to struggle before they can flourish.
When the playoffs arrive, expect Denver to know when and how to get the best from their new veterans.
Stages of a young core
Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and DaRon Holmes II are all at different stages of their careers despite each being within their second to fourth NBA seasons.
Braun is likely locked into Denver’s starting shooting guard of the future, pending a contract extension.
Watson isn’t locked into anything yet, though he’s eligible for a rookie extension of his own and deserves it based on the developmental steps he’s taken.
Strawther is entering his critical third year on the fringe of the rotation. Whether he gets pushed out of the mix or hunkers down and reestablishes his hold on regular minutes remains to be seen.
Pickett is also in his third year and is walking the line between emergency point guard and rotation caliber. This year might angle that path one direction or the other.
Holmes is recovering from a season-long injury absence and isn’t quite ready for NBA minutes yet. That could change during the season though depending on his developmental steps. If he progresses quickly, he gives Denver a long term big man option in their rotation.
Whether the Nuggets win closer to 50 games or 60 games likely depends on the young players exceeding expectations or not. Denver can’t just rely on their veterans if they want to excel in the regular season AND be fresh for the playoffs. It takes a village to be successful. The Nuggets know that, and they will need the young players to know it too.
An Easy Start…Maybe
The Denver Nuggets will play 28 games from October 23rd (Thursday) until December 22nd. There are 26 games on the schedule, but another two will be added after completion of the NBA Cup group stage.
During that time, they play just three back-to-backs have a “rest disadvantage” in just four matchups. While Denver will be forced to travel the majority of this time (which adds to the rest disadvantage) it’s still a very generous schedule early on.
After that, Denver’s schedule gets incredibly difficult for about 12 weeks. They go on a seven-game road trip, play a bunch of back-to-backs, and face several teams more rested than they will be. It’s the NBA grind in January, February, and early March.
For that reason, the Nuggets must find a way through their early season malaise that often pops up. If Denver goes 20-8 in their first 28 games, it’s easier to withstand the next 35 games that might see Denver go 22-13 if they’re lucky and 16-19 if they’re not. Starting the year strong builds a buffer for Denver to approach the season in the right way.
A Competitive West
Let’s remove the Oklahoma City Thunder from the equation. They’re a shoo-in for 60+ wins, and while Denver could push them in the regular season, I don’t think that’s where the Nuggets end up.
The Los Angeles Clippers won 50 games last year and got better.
The Los Angeles Lakers won 50 games last year and have a full year of “revenge” Luka Doncic ahead of them.
The Minnesota Timberwolves won 49 games. lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but have enough young guard talent to at least maintain their standing, if not get better.
The Golden State Warriors have (in theory) a full season of Jimmy Butler, plus other veteran additions that fit well.
The Houston Rockets, though they lost Fred VanVleet to injury, won 52 games last year and added Kevin Durant and Dorian Finney-Smith to that mix.
Beyond the top seven expected teams, one of the San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, or Dallas Mavericks will probably be surprisingly good and join the fray.
For that reason, the Nuggets have to be on their game. To earn a top three seed, the Nuggets may have to win 55 games or more. Everyone in the West is good. That might cause all of these teams to beat up on each other and repress win-loss records. If the Nuggets want to win a title, they will avoid the morass and be closer to OKC so that when March 15th arrives, the Nuggets are comfortably clear of the rest of the pack.
Could the Nuggets fall below 58 wins? Of course. Could they win more? Absolutely. I think 58 is the most likely number for Denver though. They’re deeper, more well-rounded, and have a reason to approach the season in the right way. There are steps they must take to become the best playoff team they can be, which means approaching the regular season with the focus and execution needed to dominate when it matters.
I think 58 wins, setting a new franchise record for wins in a season, is the right call. It will happen on the 81st game of the season against the Oklahoma City Thunder and give the Nuggets a reason to celebrate before the playoffs even begin.
Where it goes from there is up to the Nuggets.