Let me preface this piece by saying one thing: The Carolina Panthers are great. They’re the best team in the NFL, Cam Newton is the unquestioned MVP and they deserve to be favored.
That said, they’re beatable.
Now, when I say, “The Denver Broncos shouldn’t be afraid of the Carolina Panthers,” I’m not referring to the Denver Broncos as a team. I have no doubt that they’re as confident as ever. And honestly, I’m not really referring to their fan base, either. Most of Broncos Country would probably pick the Broncos to win World War III, so the Super Bowl is pretty much a done deal.
I’m referring to the general public, the myriad of analysts who give the Broncos no chance versus the Carolina Panthers this Sunday. The Panthers are six-point favorites, and 70 percent of the betting public are still taking Carolina, according to sportsbook.ag.
So where’s the love for the Denver Broncos? It’s as if we’ve already coronated Cam Newton as NFL champion and face of the league. Did everybody forget that this Broncos defense just forced Tom Brady into the worst game of his career?
And I mean, I get it. I get where the Panthers love is coming from. Like I said before, Newton is a truly special quarterback, and they probably should be undefeated, but they’re not without flaws.
The Panthers offense, while great, hinges entirely on one person: Cam Newton. And through their first 18 games, Cam has been the tide that lifts all ships. But if there’s one person who can devise a game plan for Cam, it’s Wade Phillips; following the AFC Championship game, I feel confident in saying that.
Partly, that stems from the fact that the Panthers have yet to face a team like the Denver Broncos, especially under these conditions. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, and by a good margin, too. While going 15-1 is undeniably impressive, rolling over weak AFC South and NFC East divisions doesn’t exactly prepare a team for a squad that personifies resilience and fight.
And yes, their two postseason wins have been impressive. Both the Seahawks and Cardinals are fantastic teams, and the Panthers stomped them. But how much can we really take away from those victories? In both cases, Carolina’s opponent self-combusted on the field, turning the ball over a combined nine times (including two pick-sixes).
It was a perfect storm for the Carolina Panthers, and while they deserve plenty of credit for their opponent’s mishaps, they would never have built those impressive leads had the Seahawks and Cardinals not played their worst games of the season.
I won’t go so far as to say that the Panthers’ offense is an illusion, but there are definitely some smoke-and-mirror tricks to their game.
They are a three-man offense, with Newton, Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart driving everything they do. In fact, their four-man receiving corps of Ted Ginn Jr., Corey Brown, Jerricho Cotchery and Devin Funchess may be the worst in the league. I’ll take Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby over those four any day.
Without exaggeration, the only reason those receivers have accomplished anything this season is Cam Newton, and that’s simply a credit to his greatness. But if Denver can stuff the run, which they’ve done all season, and limit Cam’s options down field, they have a chance; actually, they’ll have much more than a chance.
I have no doubt that Wade Phillips will have a way to neutralize Greg Olsen, much like he did for most of the game against Rob Gronkowski, and I’m not too worried about Jonathan Stewart and the running game; there’s a reason Denver only allowed 83.6 yards per game on the ground this season.
So that leaves Cam Newton left to deal with, and while that’s a lot to handle, I’ll take Denver’s chances.
Remember, this is the best defense in the NFL and one of the best we’ve seen in a long, long time; I think people tend to forget that.
The talent on Denver’s side of the ball far surpasses the talent on Carolina’s, even if Cam makes up for a lot of the difference.
And offensively, the Broncos are not going up against a juggernaut defense. They may have a lot of big names, but the Panthers aren’t as intimidating as the Patriots were two weeks ago. Based off Pro Football Focus‘ grading system, the Panthers were the league’s sixth best defense (Pats were second), with the 15th best run defense (Pats were fourth) and the 13th best pass rush (Pats were 11th).
The only thing the Panthers defense is truly great at is pass coverage (1st per PFF), but they’re not nearly the same secondary without Charles Tillman and Bene’ Benwikere, both of which are on injured reserve.
If I’m Peyton Manning, I’m targeting whoever is lining up against Cortland Finnegan or Robert McClain; there’s no need to give Josh Norman a single target. And after that, I’m giving the ball to C.J. Anderson 20 times.
The Broncos know how to win football games, and that’s the most valuable skill a team can have. They didn’t have it in 2013; it was too easy. The same goes for the Panthers this season.
Denver has faced adversity, controversy and failure; they’ll turn that into success on Sunday.