The Colorado Avalanche return to Ball Arena tonight to host the St. Louis Blues, presenting a fascinating board for bettors. Colorado opened their season with a high-scoring, chaotic affair, netting eight goals on 29 shots while allowing four. While putting up crooked numbers is always encouraging for the offense, yielding four goals indicates some early-season defensive adjustments are still necessary.
What stands out most from that initial performance is the special-teams efficiency. The Avalanche power-play converted on four of five opportunities, completely tilting the ice in their favor. Tonight, they sit as heavy home favorites, holding a 71.5 percent win probability with a consensus moneyline hovering around -308.
Finding value on the standard sides is difficult at that price. Laying that kind of juice on a straight victory offers minimal return. That’s where player props come in. When an offense generates eight goals and an 80 percent power-play success rate out of the gate, looking at individual player totals for points, shots, and defensive metrics makes much more sense. The Blues will have their hands full trying to disrupt Colorado’s puck movement, creating specific situational advantages across the roster.
Here is how the matchup dictates value as the Avalanche look to secure their second win of the season.
Devon Toews Over 1.5 Blocked Shots (+115)
Toews consistently anchors the top pairing, eating tough minutes against the opposition’s best forwards. While Cale Makar, his defensive partner, tends to command the spotlight for offensive generation, Toews is the stabilizing force that focuses on positional responsibility and breaking up high-danger chances.
St. Louis comes into Ball Arena knowing they need to establish offensive zone time to keep Colorado’s forwards off the ice. That game script naturally leads to an uptick in shot attempts from the point and the half-wall as the Blues try to force the issue. Toews is frequently positioned in the shooting lanes during these extended shifts.
Bettors looking for an edge here are relying on game flow. If the Avalanche take an early lead, St. Louis will be forced to press, increasing the volume of pucks funneled toward the net. Securing two blocks from a top-pairing defenseman who plays significant even-strength and penalty-kill minutes is a logical expectation in a game where the opponent is chasing the scoreboard. If you are line-shopping, checking a BetMGM promo code can occasionally yield better payouts on peripheral stats like blocked shots.
Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
While we generally prefer avoiding heavily juiced props on star players, there are situations where the volume justifies the investment. MacKinnon dictates the pace of the game in a way few others can, and his propensity to fire the puck from all angles makes this specific market reliable. Colorado registered 29 shots in their opener, and MacKinnon is expected to take a significant percentage of those attempts.
St. Louis runs a defensive system that can occasionally collapse toward the middle of the ice, yielding perimeter shots. MacKinnon is adept at recognizing this gap, using his edge work to create shooting lanes off the rush. Rather than forcing low-percentage passes, he is more than willing to put the puck on the net to generate rebounds or faceoffs in the offensive zone.
Given the heavy volume he sees on the power-play – which operated at peak efficiency in game one – his opportunities to register shots with the man-advantage alone provide a solid baseline. We’re not looking for a multi-goal performance here; we just need him to maintain his standard operating procedure of funneling pucks to the net. If you happen to be using theScore Bet promo, the shot prop market for volume shooters often provides a stable anchor for a broader card.
For more updates and the latest Avalanche news, keep an eye on our coverage throughout the day as final lineup decisions are made.
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.